The model favours a Riga FC II win, with a 50 % chance of victory, 25 % for a draw and 25 % for Leevon / PPK. The expected total is 3.1 goals, yet the most likely total is 2, with a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7 % chance. Riga FC II, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. Leevon / PPK, on a five-game winning streak, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.33 conceded away from home. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Under 6.5 (96.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.3 %), Under 5.5 (91.1 %), Home +2 handicap (89.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (88.9 %), Away under 2.5 goals (87.1 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (83.7 %). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcome is assigned a win probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Riga FC II win
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK win
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Riga FC II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.87
1.60
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
1.47
2.00
1.43
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.42
2.00
1.83
2.17
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leevon / PPK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.47
2.19
1.69
1.14
1.21
vs Stronger (21)
2.00
1.33
2.73
1.45
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (7)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.75
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.5%
No
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
7.1%
1-0
7.1%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
Riga FC II goals ↓
Leevon / PPK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
5.1%
4.0%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.1%
12%
7.1%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.4%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.2%
5.5%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.8%
2.4%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga FC II goals (down), columns = Leevon / PPK goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Riga FC II is 2.17 points worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Riga FC II is 1.20 goals worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Riga FC II is 1.00 goals worse than Leevon / PPK in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Riga FC II or Draw
72.2%
Avg Implied -
47%
26%
28%
covers Riga FC II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II or Leevon / PPK
74.5%
Avg Implied -
47%
26%
28%
covers Riga FC II + Leevon / PPK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Leevon / PPK
53.3%
Avg Implied -
47%
26%
28%
covers Draw + Leevon / PPK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5
Over
82.6%
Under
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5
Over
52.3%
Under
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 3.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5
Over
73.2%
Under
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Riga FC II, so a minus line means Riga FC II give that many goals of a start and Leevon / PPK receive them. At -1, Riga FC II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Riga FC II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II -2
11.3%
Draw -2
14.5%
Leevon / PPK +2
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II -1
25.8%
Draw -1
20.9%
Leevon / PPK +1
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II +1
72.2%
Draw +1
15.4%
Leevon / PPK -1
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II +2
87.6%
Draw +2
8.2%
Leevon / PPK -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Riga FC II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.93
0.73
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.17
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leevon / PPK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
1.19
0.88
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
0.81
1.45
0.82
0.50
0.80
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.86
0.50
1.25
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.3%
Under 0.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.4%
Under 1.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.6%
Under 2.5
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.2%
Under
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Riga FC II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.93
0.87
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
1.14
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leevon / PPK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.00
0.81
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
0.52
1.27
0.64
0.70
0.40
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.14
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.4%
Under 0.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.3%
Under 1.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.4%
Under 2.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.5%
Under
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
Riga FC II and Leevon / PPK have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Riga FC II and Leevon / PPK have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
Riga FC II and Leevon / PPK have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA