Riga FC II’s recent draw and a strong home form suggest a high-scoring affair, with the model predicting a 4.0 average goal total and a 6+ total most likely. The forecast favours a home win, with a 47% chance, a 22% draw chance, and a 32% away win chance. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Riga FC II, with a 7.9% probability. Home side Riga FC II averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.43 conceded against stronger opposition, while Rīga FS II, playing away against weaker opponents, averages 1.54 scored and 2.77 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (94.7%), Over 1.5 (91.8%), Home over 0.5 goals (89.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.8%), Under 6.5 (88.5%), Away over 0.5 goals (83.8%), Home +2 handicap (83.6%), and Home under 3.5 goals (81.6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Riga FC II win
46.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II win
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Riga FC II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.87
1.60
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
1.47
2.00
1.43
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.42
2.00
1.83
2.17
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.73
2.17
1.08
1.56
2.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.22
0.67
3.00
0.75
1.60
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
1.62
2.19
1.75
1.25
1.54
2.77
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.8%
Under 1.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
76.7%
Under 2.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
57.4%
Under 3.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
75.4%
No
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.9%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
7.2%
1-2
6.5%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
5.3%
2-3
4.4%
2-0
4.3%
Riga FC II goals ↓
Rīgas FS II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
2.5%
2.9%
1.8%
0.8%
1
3.2%
7.8%
6.5%
3.9%
1.8%
2
4.3%
7.9%
7.2%
4.4%
2.0%
3
3.2%
5.8%
5.3%
3.2%
1.5%
4
1.8%
3.2%
2.9%
1.8%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga FC II goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Riga FC II is 0.33 points better than Rīgas FS II in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Riga FC II is 0.50 goals worse than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Riga FC II is 2.17 goals better than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 4.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Riga FC II or Draw
68.4%
Avg Implied -
47%
22%
32%
covers Riga FC II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II or Rīgas FS II
78.3%
Avg Implied -
47%
22%
32%
covers Riga FC II + Rīgas FS II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rīgas FS II
53.3%
Avg Implied -
47%
22%
32%
covers Draw + Rīgas FS II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5
Over
89.1%
Under
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5
Over
65.0%
Under
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5
Over
38.2%
Under
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 3.5
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5
Over
83.8%
Under
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5
Over
27.5%
Under
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 3.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Riga FC II, so a minus line means Riga FC II give that many goals of a start and Rīgas FS II receive them. At -1, Riga FC II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Riga FC II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II -2
14.1%
Draw -2
14.1%
Rīgas FS II +2
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II -1
28.1%
Draw -1
18.6%
Rīgas FS II +1
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II +1
68.4%
Draw +1
15.1%
Rīgas FS II -1
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II +2
83.6%
Draw +2
9.5%
Rīgas FS II -2
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Riga FC II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.93
0.73
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.17
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
1.00
0.58
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.44
2.00
0.50
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.62
1.23
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Riga FC II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.93
0.87
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
1.14
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
1.17
0.50
0.89
1.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.00
0.25
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
1.19
1.25
0.62
0.92
1.54
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Tukums II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA