Riga FC II’s recent draw and a 1-1 scoreline against a stronger side suggest a cautious start, yet the model projects a home win with a 38% chance, a draw at 26% and an away win at 36%. The expected total goals sit at 3.2, with the most likely total being three goals, a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% chance. Riga FC II, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.43 conceded; Skanste, on the road against a weaker team, averages 1.5 scored and 1.6 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.1%, Under 6.5 at 95.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.5%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 92.1%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Riga FC II win
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skanste win
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Riga FC II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.87
1.60
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
1.47
2.00
1.43
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
1.42
2.00
1.83
2.17
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skanste
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.63
2.06
1.50
1.29
1.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.80
1.17
1.50
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (20)
2.05
1.55
2.60
1.50
1.50
1.60
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.4%
Under 2.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.1%
Under 3.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.3%
No
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.6%
1-0
5.7%
0-1
5.5%
2-0
5.4%
0-0
5.3%
Riga FC II goals ↓
Skanste goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
5.5%
5.2%
2.7%
1.1%
1
5.7%
12%
8.3%
4.3%
1.7%
2
5.4%
8.4%
6.6%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.9%
4.5%
3.5%
1.9%
0.7%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga FC II goals (down), columns = Skanste goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Riga FC II is 0.83 points worse than Skanste in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Riga FC II is 1.83 goals worse than Skanste in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Riga FC II is 0.17 goals worse than Skanste in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Riga FC II or Draw
63.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
26%
36%
covers Riga FC II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II or Skanste
74.3%
Avg Implied -
38%
26%
36%
covers Riga FC II + Skanste
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Skanste
62.1%
Avg Implied -
38%
26%
36%
covers Draw + Skanste
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 3.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 0.5
Over
79.2%
Under
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Riga FC II, so a minus line means Riga FC II give that many goals of a start and Skanste receive them. At -1, Riga FC II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Riga FC II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II -2
7.8%
Draw -2
11.6%
Skanste +2
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II -1
19.4%
Draw -1
18.5%
Skanste +1
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II +1
63.5%
Draw +1
18.1%
Skanste -1
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Riga FC II)
Riga FC II +2
81.6%
Draw +2
11.1%
Skanste -2
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Riga FC II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.93
0.73
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
0.60
0.86
0.43
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.17
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skanste
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.94
1.00
0.50
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.67
0.25
1.25
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
1.20
1.20
1.20
0.60
1.20
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.6%
Under 0.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.5%
Under 1.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.4%
Under 2.5
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Riga FC II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.93
0.87
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
1.14
1.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Skanste
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.12
0.50
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.90
0.67
0.83
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.35
1.40
0.30
0.90
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga FC II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.0%
Under 0.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.0%
Under 1.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.7%
Under 2.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga FC II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.7%
Under
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga FC II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.8%
Under
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.7%
Under
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA