The Riga Mariners are primed for a high-scoring affair, their recent 4-game winning streak and an average of 2.83 goals per home match suggesting plenty of firepower. JDFS Alberts, meanwhile, have been equally potent on the road, scoring 2.75 goals per game while conceding 1.25, and they are also riding a 3-game winning run. With both sides averaging over two goals each, the model projects a total of 4.1 goals, favouring a 6+ scoreline with a 23% chance. The most likely single score is 1-1, a 7.6% probability. The model’s pick is a home win, with the home win, draw and away win probabilities all at 39%, 22% and 39% respectively. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (94.2%), Over 1.5 (92.4%), Under 6.5 (87.7%), Away over 0.5 goals (87.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (84.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (84.5%) and Home or Away (78.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Riga Mariners win
38.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts win
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Riga Mariners
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.90
1.27
2.88
1.25
2.93
1.29
vs Stronger (14)
2.57
1.43
2.62
1.38
2.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
3.00
1.33
2.83
1.17
3.17
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
3.75
0.50
4.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JDFS Alberts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.90
1.54
0.77
2.12
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.78
0.89
1.43
0.86
2.00
0.91
vs Similar (9)
1.89
0.67
1.20
0.20
2.75
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.67
4.00
3.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.4%
Under 1.5
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.9%
Under 2.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.9%
Under 3.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
76.8%
No
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
7.6%
2-2
7.3%
1-2
7.1%
2-1
7.1%
2-3
5.0%
3-2
5.0%
1-3
4.9%
3-1
4.8%
Riga Mariners goals ↓
JDFS Alberts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.3%
2.7%
3.5%
2.4%
1.2%
1
2.6%
7.6%
7.1%
4.9%
2.5%
2
3.4%
7.1%
7.3%
5.0%
2.6%
3
2.3%
4.8%
5.0%
3.4%
1.8%
4
1.2%
2.5%
2.6%
1.8%
0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga Mariners goals (down), columns = JDFS Alberts goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Riga Mariners is 0.27 points better than JDFS Alberts in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Riga Mariners is 0.80 goals better than JDFS Alberts in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Riga Mariners is 0.33 goals worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Riga Mariners or Draw
60.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
22%
39%
covers Riga Mariners + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners or JDFS Alberts
78.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
22%
39%
covers Riga Mariners + JDFS Alberts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or JDFS Alberts
61.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
22%
39%
covers Draw + JDFS Alberts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5
Over
87.1%
Under
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 3.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5
Over
87.4%
Under
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5
Over
61.2%
Under
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5
Over
34.2%
Under
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 3.5
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Riga Mariners, so a minus line means Riga Mariners give that many goals of a start and JDFS Alberts receive them. At -1, Riga Mariners must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Riga Mariners win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners -2
10.2%
Draw -2
11.7%
JDFS Alberts +2
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners -1
21.9%
Draw -1
16.9%
JDFS Alberts +1
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners +1
60.5%
Draw +1
17.1%
JDFS Alberts -1
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners +2
77.6%
Draw +2
11.9%
JDFS Alberts -2
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Riga Mariners
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.40
1.19
0.44
1.14
0.36
vs Stronger (14)
1.07
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.17
0.50
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.33
1.17
0.33
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JDFS Alberts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.54
0.46
0.88
0.29
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
0.33
0.57
0.43
0.82
0.27
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.20
0.20
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Riga Mariners
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.87
1.69
0.81
1.79
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
1.50
0.93
1.62
0.88
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.83
1.00
1.67
0.83
2.00
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.25
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JDFS Alberts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.00
0.31
1.24
0.71
vs Stronger (18)
1.06
0.56
0.86
0.43
1.18
0.64
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.44
1.00
0.00
1.75
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
Riga Mariners and JDFS Alberts have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
Riga Mariners and JDFS Alberts have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Riga Mariners and JDFS Alberts have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA