PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-1
Riga Mariners
Riga Mariners
Vs
54%
23%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Riga Mariners wināœ— Miss
54.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ“ Hit
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils wināœ— Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

āš½ 2. Goal Analysis

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-632W60W21W03L40W33D60W31W43W02LA·LEE22/08H·PRO30/08A·JFK13/09A·OGR20/09A·TUK26/09H·AUG04/10H·RĒZ18/10A·SMI25/10H·RÄŖG01/11A·JDF08/11
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.851.312.921.232.771.38
vs Stronger (12)2.671.502.831.502.501.50
vs Similar (12)2.831.332.831.172.831.50
vs Weaker (2)4.000.004.000.004.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W12L22D02L02L22D00D10W23L13LA·AUG30/08H·RIG13/09A·SMI20/09H·RÄŖG27/09A·JDF05/10H·RIG19/10A·SKA25/10H·MĀR01/11A·LEE08/11H·JDF18/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.171.691.061.291.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)1.311.001.570.861.001.17
vs Weaker (17)1.651.291.781.221.501.38
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.7%
Under 2.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.5%
No
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 āœ“
9.9%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
1-2
6.0%
1-0
5.9%
3-0
5.0%
Riga Mariners goals ↓
JFK Ventspils goals →
01234
04.1%3.4%2.9%1.3%0.4%
15.9%9.9%6.0%2.7%0.9%
27.1%9.5%6.3%2.8%0.9%
35.0%6.7%4.4%2.0%0.7%
42.6%3.5%2.3%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga Mariners goals (down), columns = JFK Ventspils goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
RÄ«gas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Riga Mariners is 2.20 points better than JFK Ventspils in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 0.40).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
RÄ«gas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Riga Mariners is 2.00 goals better than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 0.80).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
RÄ«gas FS II
4.17
Riga Mariners is 0.80 goals better than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.80).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W11D02L10W22D20W11D21W00DA·LEE22/08H·PRO30/08A·JFK13/09A·OGR20/09A·TUK26/09H·AUG04/10H·RĒZ18/10A·SMI25/10H·RÄŖG01/11A·JDF08/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.080.381.230.380.920.38
vs Stronger (12)1.170.501.170.501.170.50
vs Similar (12)0.920.331.170.330.670.33
vs Weaker (2)1.500.002.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %69% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D12L01L01L10W00D00D01L00DA·AUG30/08H·RIG13/09A·SMI20/09H·RÄŖG27/09A·JDF05/10H·RIG19/10A·SKA25/10H·MĀR01/11A·LEE08/11H·JDF18/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.400.750.250.430.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.620.460.710.290.500.67
vs Weaker (17)0.590.350.780.220.380.50
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D40W10W01L30W11D40W20W22D02LA·LEE22/08H·PRO30/08A·JFK13/09A·OGR20/09A·TUK26/09H·AUG04/10H·RĒZ18/10A·SMI25/10H·RÄŖG01/11A·JDF08/11
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.921.690.851.851.00
vs Stronger (12)1.501.001.671.001.331.00
vs Similar (12)1.921.001.670.832.171.17
vs Weaker (2)2.500.002.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %31% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L10W01L01L12L00D10W22D13LA·AUG30/08H·RIG13/09A·SMI20/09H·RÄŖG27/09A·JDF05/10H·RIG19/10A·SKA25/10H·MĀR01/11A·LEE08/11H·JDF18/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.770.940.810.860.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.690.540.860.570.500.50
vs Weaker (17)1.060.941.001.001.120.88
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.6%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
RM wins
0
Draws
1
JV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils · H/A from RM
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25AJFK Ventspils Vs RM1-2
03/05/25HRM Vs JFK Ventspils1-2

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/25AJDFS Alberts Vs RM2-0
01/11/25HRM Vs RÄ«gas FS II4-3
25/10/25ASmiltene Vs RM1-3
18/10/25HRM Vs Rēzekne FA6-0
04/10/25HRM Vs AugŔdaugava3-3
26/09/25ATukums II Vs RM0-4
20/09/25AOgre United Vs RM3-0
13/09/25AJFK Ventspils Vs RM1-2
30/08/25HRM Vs Progress / AFA Olaine6-0
22/08/25ALeevon / PPK Vs RM2-3

JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/26HJV Vs JDFS Alberts1-3
08/11/25ALeevon / PPK Vs JV3-2
01/11/25HJV Vs Mārupe1-0
25/10/25ASkanste Vs JV0-0
19/10/25HJV Vs Riga FC II2-2
05/10/25AJDFS Alberts Vs JV2-0
27/09/25HJV Vs RÄ«gas FS II0-2
20/09/25ASmiltene Vs JV2-2
13/09/25HJV Vs Riga Mariners1-2
30/08/25AAugŔdaugava Vs JV0-2

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Riga Mariners
Riga Mariners
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL2.23
HomeWWDWW2.08
AwayWLWWL2.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %69%62%77%
AVG goals4.154.154.15
Over 1.5 %92%85%100%
Over 2.5 %81%77%85%
Over 3.5 %65%69%62%
Scored2.852.922.77
Conceded1.311.231.38
BTTS69%62%77%
Clean Sheet23%38%8%
Corners---
Cards---
JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLL1.42
HomeLLDWL1.50
AwayWDLDL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals2.662.692.62
Over 1.5 %78%81%75%
Over 2.5 %48%46%50%
Over 3.5 %30%35%25%
Scored1.401.621.17
Conceded1.261.081.46
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ā‚¬mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12RÄ«gas FS IIRÄ«gas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

← all matches