Riga Mariners are set to host Rēzekne FA in a high-scoring affair that the model predicts will finish 2-1 in favour of the home side, a 8.2% chance. The match is expected to see 4.1 goals on average, with a 24% probability that the total will exceed six. The Mariners have been prolific at home, averaging 2.83 goals scored and conceding just 1.17 against similarly strong opposition, while Rēzekne, playing away, has struggled, scoring 1.57 and conceding 2.14. The home win probability stands at 56%, the draw at 20%, and the away win at 24%. The model’s suggested picks include Away under 2.5 2H goals (99%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (94.2%), Under 7.5 (94.0%), Away under 1.5 2H goals (93.5%), Over 1.5 (92.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (91.8%), and Away under 3.5 goals (91.5%). The Mariners are on a four-game winning run, having beaten Rīgas FS II 3-1, whereas Rēzekne come off five straight defeats, losing 1-6 to Valmiera / BSS.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Riga Mariners win
55.9%
Avg Implied 89.8% · @ 1.04
Edge
-33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.04
Draw
20.1%
Avg Implied 7.2% · @ 13.00
Edge
+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
13.00
Rēzekne FA win
24.1%
Avg Implied 3.0% · @ 31.00
Edge
+21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
31.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Riga Mariners
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.90
1.27
2.88
1.25
2.93
1.29
vs Stronger (14)
2.57
1.43
2.62
1.38
2.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
3.00
1.33
2.83
1.17
3.17
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
3.75
0.50
4.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rēzekne FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.43
1.20
2.07
1.33
2.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
2.62
0.50
2.75
0.75
2.50
vs Similar (15)
1.67
2.13
1.75
2.12
1.57
2.14
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
2.86
0.67
1.00
1.50
4.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.5%
Under 1.5
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
78.2%
Under 2.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
59.4%
Under 3.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
74.7%
No
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.2%@ 11.00+3.6%
1-1
7.2%@ 21.00+4.8%
3-1
6.8%@ 9.50+1.5%
2-2
6.7%@ 41.00+5.5%
3-2
5.6%@ 31.00+4.0%
1-2
5.4%@ 76.00+4.7%
2-0
5.0%@ 7.00-2.2%
4-1
4.3%@ 11.00-0.3%
Riga Mariners goals ↓
Rēzekne FA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
2.0%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
1
3.3%
7.2%
5.4%
2.9%
1.2%
2
5.0%
8.2%
6.7%
3.7%
1.5%
3
4.1%
6.8%
5.6%
3.1%
1.3%
4
2.6%
4.3%
3.5%
1.9%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga Mariners goals (down), columns = Rēzekne FA goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Riga Mariners is 2.60 points better than Rēzekne FA in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Riga Mariners is 2.13 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Riga Mariners is 2.00 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Riga Mariners or Draw
75.9%
Avg Implied 96.5% · @ 1.01
Edge
-20.6%
56%
20%
24%
covers Riga Mariners + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.01
Riga Mariners or Rēzekne FA
79.9%
Avg Implied 94.6% · @ 1.03
Edge
-14.7%
56%
20%
24%
covers Riga Mariners + Rēzekne FA
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.03
Draw or Rēzekne FA
44.1%
Avg Implied 8.9% · @ 11.00
Edge
+35.3%
56%
20%
24%
covers Draw + Rēzekne FA
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
11.00
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5
Over
91.8%
Under
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5
Over
45.6%
Under
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 3.5
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5
Over
80.7%
Under
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 3.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Riga Mariners, so a minus line means Riga Mariners give that many goals of a start and Rēzekne FA receive them. At -1, Riga Mariners must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Riga Mariners win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners -2
20.1%
Draw -2
16.4%
Rēzekne FA +2
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners -1
36.4%
Draw -1
19.4%
Rēzekne FA +1
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners +1
75.9%
Draw +1
12.5%
Rēzekne FA -1
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners +2
88.5%
Draw +2
7.1%
Rēzekne FA -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Riga Mariners
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.40
1.19
0.44
1.14
0.36
vs Stronger (14)
1.07
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.17
0.50
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.33
1.17
0.33
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rēzekne FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.40
0.67
0.73
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.60
0.62
0.50
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
2.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.2%
@ 1.11-1.1%
Under 0.5
17.8%
@ 5.50+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.11
Under
Betfair
5.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.3%
@ 1.65-0.7%
Under 1.5
44.7%
@ 2.10+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.65
Under
Betfair
2.10
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.1%
@ 3.30+6.0%
Under 2.5
65.9%
@ 1.29-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.30
Under
Betfair
1.29
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 HT
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 HT
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 HT
Over
25.7%
Under
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Riga Mariners
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.87
1.69
0.81
1.79
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
1.50
0.93
1.62
0.88
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.83
1.00
1.67
0.83
2.00
1.17
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
0.25
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rēzekne FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.40
0.80
1.40
0.60
1.40
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.62
0.25
1.75
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.53
1.12
1.62
0.86
1.43
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.86
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
88.6%
Under 0.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.9%
Under 1.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.4%
Under 2.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 2H
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 2H
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 2H
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
82.2%
1.11
Betfair
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.9%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-
-14.7%
Over 2.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils