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Riga Mariners vs Skanste Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 15:00
Riga Mariners
Riga Mariners
Vs
39%
24%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Skanste
Skanste
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Riga Mariners, riding a four-game winning streak, face Skanste in a match the model deems a home win. The expected total of 3.6 goals suggests a lively affair, with the most probable total being three goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.9% chance. Riga’s home form shows they average 2.62 goals for and 1.38 against against stronger opponents, while Skanste, playing away against weaker teams, average 1.5 for and 1.6 against. The probabilities are 39% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 38% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.0%), Under 6.5 (92.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.2%), Over 1.5 (88.1%), Under 5.5 (84.8%), Home over 0.5 goals (83.4%), and Away over 0.5 goals (83.1%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Riga Mariners win
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Skanste win
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-633D60W31W43W02L11D30W42W31W31WH·AUG04/10H·RĒZ18/10A·SMI25/10H·RĪG01/11A·JDF08/11H·JFK25/07A·SUP31/07H·TUK09/08A·RIG24/08H·RĪG29/08
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.901.272.881.252.931.29
vs Stronger (14)2.571.432.621.382.501.50
vs Similar (12)3.001.332.831.173.171.50
vs Weaker (4)3.750.504.001.003.500.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SkansteSkanste

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-603L00D03L62W03L12L42W51W11D62WA·PRO18/10H·JFK25/10A·OGR01/11H·TUK08/11H·VAL18/07A·LEE25/07H·MĀR01/08H·RĒZ08/08A·SUP23/08H·TUK30/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.632.061.501.291.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.001.801.171.500.752.25
vs Weaker (20)2.051.552.601.501.501.60
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.1%
Under 1.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.3%
Under 2.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.9%
Under 3.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.2%
No
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
7.2%
3-1
4.8%
1-3
4.7%
2-0
4.5%
0-2
4.4%
Riga Mariners goals ↓
Skanste goals →
01234
03.7%4.1%4.4%2.6%1.2%
14.1%9.9%8.0%4.7%2.1%
24.5%8.1%7.2%4.2%1.9%
32.7%4.8%4.3%2.5%1.1%
41.2%2.2%1.9%1.1%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga Mariners goals (down), columns = Skanste goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Riga Mariners is 0.93 points better than Skanste in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Riga Mariners is 0.03 goals worse than Skanste in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 2.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Riga Mariners is 0.83 goals better than Skanste in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.83).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Riga Mariners or Draw
62.4%
Avg Implied -
39%
24%
38%
covers Riga Mariners + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners or Skanste
76.2%
Avg Implied -
39%
24%
38%
covers Riga Mariners + Skanste
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Skanste
61.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
24%
38%
covers Draw + Skanste
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5
Over
83.4%
Under
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 3.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
Under
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5
Over
26.3%
Under
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Riga Mariners, so a minus line means Riga Mariners give that many goals of a start and Skanste receive them. At -1, Riga Mariners must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Riga Mariners win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners -2
9.0%
Draw -2
11.8%
Skanste +2
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners -1
20.7%
Draw -1
17.8%
Skanste +1
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners +1
62.4%
Draw +1
17.6%
Skanste -1
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Riga Mariners)
Riga Mariners +2
80.0%
Draw +2
11.5%
Skanste -2
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D20W11D21W00D01L10W21W30W10WH·AUG04/10H·RĒZ18/10A·SMI25/10H·RĪG01/11A·JDF08/11H·JFK25/07A·SUP31/07H·TUK09/08A·RIG24/08H·RĪG29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.401.190.441.140.36
vs Stronger (14)1.070.501.000.501.170.50
vs Similar (12)1.170.331.170.331.170.33
vs Weaker (4)1.500.252.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SkansteSkanste

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D01L32W01L11D21W21W11D52WA·PRO18/10H·JFK25/10A·OGR01/11H·TUK08/11H·VAL18/07A·LEE25/07H·MĀR01/08H·RĒZ08/08A·SUP23/08H·TUK30/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.100.941.000.501.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.400.900.500.670.251.25
vs Weaker (20)0.901.201.201.200.601.20
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D40W20W22D02L10W20W21W01L21WH·AUG04/10H·RĒZ18/10A·SMI25/10H·RĪG01/11A·JDF08/11H·JFK25/07A·SUP31/07H·TUK09/08A·RIG24/08H·RĪG29/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.871.690.811.790.93
vs Stronger (14)1.500.931.620.881.331.00
vs Similar (12)1.831.001.670.832.001.17
vs Weaker (4)2.250.252.000.502.500.00
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Skanste) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SkansteSkanste

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D02L30W02L01L21W30W00D10WA·PRO18/10H·JFK25/10A·OGR01/11H·TUK08/11H·VAL18/07A·LEE25/07H·MĀR01/08H·RĒZ08/08A·SUP23/08H·TUK30/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.531.120.500.790.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.600.900.670.830.501.00
vs Weaker (20)1.150.351.400.300.900.40
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Skanste over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.0%-------
Under 6.592.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals89.5%-------
Home under 3.5 goals89.2%-------
Over 1.588.1%-------
Under 5.584.8%-------
Home over 0.5 goals83.4%-------
Away over 0.5 goals83.1%-------
Home +2 handicap80.0%-------
Away +2 handicap79.3%-------
Home or Away76.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals73.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals73.1%-------
Under 4.571.1%-------
BTTS Yes70.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
RM wins
0
Draws
0
SKA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Riga Mariners vs Skanste · H/A from RM
DateH/AGameScore
02/08/25ASkanste Vs RM2-3
05/04/25HRM Vs Skanste1-0

Riga MarinersRiga Mariners

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HRM Vs Rīgas FS II3-1
24/08/26ARiga FC II Vs RM1-3
09/08/26HRM Vs Tukums II4-2
31/07/26ASuper Nova 2 Vs RM0-3
25/07/26HRM Vs JFK Ventspils1-1
08/11/25AJDFS Alberts Vs RM2-0
01/11/25HRM Vs Rīgas FS II4-3
25/10/25ASmiltene Vs RM1-3
18/10/25HRM Vs Rēzekne FA6-0
04/10/25HRM Vs Augšdaugava3-3

SkansteSkanste

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HSKA Vs Tukums II6-2
23/08/26ASuper Nova 2 Vs SKA1-1
08/08/26HSKA Vs Rēzekne FA5-1
01/08/26HSKA Vs Mārupe4-2
25/07/26ALeevon / PPK Vs SKA2-1
18/07/26HSKA Vs Valmiera / BSS0-3
08/11/25HSKA Vs Tukums II6-2
01/11/25AOgre United Vs SKA3-0
25/10/25HSKA Vs JFK Ventspils0-0
18/10/25AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs SKA3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Riga Mariners
Riga Mariners
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.29
HomeWWDWW2.12
AwayWWLWW2.47
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %71%62%80%
AVG goals4.104.124.07
Over 1.5 %94%88%100%
Over 2.5 %81%75%87%
Over 3.5 %65%69%60%
Scored2.842.882.80
Conceded1.261.251.27
BTTS71%69%73%
Clean Sheet23%31%13%
Corners---
Cards---
Skanste
Skanste
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.68
HomeWLWWW1.88
AwayWLLLD1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%56%44%
AVG goals3.043.322.76
Over 1.5 %72%76%68%
Over 2.5 %60%56%64%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.682.121.24
Conceded1.361.201.52
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet28%36%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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