The Riga Mariners are the clear favorites to win at home, with a 77% chance of victory according to the Pythia prediction model. This is largely due to the Mariners' strong form at home, where they have averaged 2.69 goals scored and just 1.15 conceded against weaker opponents. Meanwhile, Tukums II have struggled on the road, averaging just 1 goal scored and 3.5 conceded against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 4.4 goals and a most likely total of 6 or more goals. The most likely score is 3-1 in favor of the Mariners, with a probability of 8.1%.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a probability of 77%. The model also suggests the Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 selections, with probabilities of 93.9% and 81.6% respectively. The Home win is the most likely result, with the draw at 14% and the away win at 10%.
Results analysis
The win extends the Riga Mariners' run to three matches, following a 4-2 victory over Tukums II. The final score saw the home team claim a convincing win, as the model's prediction came to fruition. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 77%. The suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5 (93.9%) and Over 2.5 (81.6%) both hitting, while Home win (76.7%) also landed.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Riga Mariners winā Hit
76.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawā Miss
13.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums II winā Miss
9.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Riga Mariners
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.79
1.25
2.79
1.21
2.79
1.29
vs Stronger (13)
2.54
1.46
2.57
1.43
2.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
2.83
1.33
2.83
1.17
2.83
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.00
4.00
0.00
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.37
1.69
2.00
1.00
2.79
vs Stronger (30)
1.37
2.37
1.69
2.00
1.00
2.79
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.9%
Under 1.5
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
81.6%
Under 2.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.2%
Under 3.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.9%
No
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.1%
2-1
7.5%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
6.6%
2-0
6.4%
4-0
5.6%
1-1
5.1%
3-2
4.8%
Riga Mariners goals ↓
Tukums II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.7%
1.0%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
1
3.5%
5.1%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
2
6.4%
7.5%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
3
6.9%
8.1%
4.8%
1.9%
0.6%
4
5.6%
6.6%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga Mariners goals (down), columns = Tukums II goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
MÄrupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
RÄ«gas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
RÄzekne FA
0.00
Riga Mariners is 1.80 points better than Tukums II in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 0.80).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
RÄ«gas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
MÄrupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
RÄzekne FA
0.67
Riga Mariners is 1.40 goals better than Tukums II in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 1.40).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
MÄrupe
2.43
RÄzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
RÄ«gas FS II
4.17
Riga Mariners is 3.00 goals better than Tukums II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 4.00).
ā±ļø Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
š² 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
š 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Riga Mariners
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.04
0.39
1.14
0.43
0.93
0.36
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
0.54
1.00
0.57
1.17
0.50
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.33
1.17
0.33
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
68% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.75
0.75
0.50
1.29
vs Stronger (30)
0.63
1.00
0.75
0.75
0.50
1.29
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Riga Mariners
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.75
0.86
1.64
0.79
1.86
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
1.46
0.92
1.57
0.86
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.92
1.00
1.67
0.83
2.17
1.17
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
36% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.37
0.94
1.25
0.50
1.50
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
1.37
0.94
1.25
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga Mariners) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga Mariners over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga Mariners over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 2.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Home win
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
Riga Mariners and Tukums II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Riga Mariners and Tukums II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
Riga Mariners and Tukums II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
Riga Mariners and Tukums II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Skanste
MÄrupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
RÄ«gas FS II
JFK Ventspils
RÄzekne FA