Riga’s strong home form, averaging 2.83 goals scored and only 0.42 conceded against weaker opposition, makes the model pick a home win the clear favourite, especially as Auda, playing away against a stronger side, averages just 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring match, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Riga, with a 12% chance. Home win probability sits at 66%, draw at 21% and away win at 12%. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.1%, Under 7.5 at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.9%, Under 6.5 at 97.1%, Home +2 handicap at 96.0%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.1%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.2%. Riga’s recent loss to FK Liepaja and Auda’s draw against Super Nova hint at a cautious start, but the venue advantage keeps Riga ahead.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Riga win
66.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Auda win
12.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Riga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.00
2.67
0.67
1.67
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.43
2.00
1.67
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (23)
2.43
0.87
2.83
0.42
2.00
1.36
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.37
1.12
1.12
0.71
1.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.31
1.14
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.91
1.50
0.83
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
1-0
10.6%
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.4%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
6.5%
4-0
4.4%
Riga goals ↓
Auda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
3.5%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
11%
10%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
8.4%
6.8%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.4%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = Auda goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Riga is 0.29 points better than Auda in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Riga is 1.86 goals better than Auda in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Riga is 0.57 goals worse than Auda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Riga or Draw
87.5%
Avg Implied -
66%
21%
12%
covers Riga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga or Auda
78.5%
Avg Implied -
66%
21%
12%
covers Riga + Auda
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Auda
34.0%
Avg Implied -
66%
21%
12%
covers Draw + Auda
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Riga over/under 0.5
Over
87.6%
Under
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5
Over
61.7%
Under
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 3.5
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Riga, so a minus line means Riga give that many goals of a start and Auda receive them. At -1, Riga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Riga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Riga)
Riga -2
22.1%
Draw -2
20.4%
Auda +2
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Riga)
Riga -1
42.5%
Draw -1
23.5%
Auda +1
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Riga)
Riga +1
87.5%
Draw +1
8.5%
Auda -1
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Riga)
Riga +2
96.0%
Draw +2
3.1%
Auda -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Riga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.43
0.00
0.67
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.39
1.00
0.17
0.91
0.64
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.43
0.14
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.36
0.83
0.33
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.7%
Under 0.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.6%
Under 1.5
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.5%
Under 2.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.5%
Under
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Riga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.60
1.87
0.40
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.48
0.48
1.83
0.25
1.09
0.73
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.62
0.69
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.85
0.71
0.86
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.55
0.67
0.50
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.1%
Under 0.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.2%
Under 1.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.8%
Under 2.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
66.9%
Under
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Riga · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas Aurélio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Riga's squad is €9m more valuable than Auda's (€16m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Riga's attack is €4m more valuable than Auda's (€7m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Riga's midfield is €2m more valuable than Auda's (€3m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Riga's defence is €4m more valuable than Auda's (€6m vs €3m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
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Rīgas FS
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
Tukums