Riga vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction & Stats

Date: 07/09/2026

Time: 16:00

Riga

77%

16%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

BFC Daugavpils

Latvia: Virsliga

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 13 Player market rates 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Riga’s recent form shows a team that has struggled after a loss, yet the model still rates them as the clear favourite, largely because they play at home against a side that typically performs weaker away. The probability of a home win sits at 77%, a draw at 16%, and an away win at 7%. The model pick is a home win, reflecting Riga’s strong home scoring average of 2.83 goals per game and a low 0.42 conceded, while BFC Daugavpils averages only 1.0 goal scored and concedes 3.0 when away. The expected total goals for the match is 3.1, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Riga, with a 13.7% chance. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.8%), Under 7.5 (98.6% with a 6% edge), Home +2 handicap (98.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.3% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (96.1% with a 7% edge), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.9%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Riga win

77.0%

Avg Implied 74.3% · @ 1.22

Edge

+2.7%

Best 5 market prices

Unibet

1.35

Betano

1.28

1xBet

1.19

Bet365

1.18

Marathonbet

1.18

Draw

16.2%

Avg Implied 16.5% · @ 5.49

Edge

-0.4%

Best 5 market prices

Bet365

6.25

Betfair

6.00

Marathonbet

5.60

1xBet

5.60

Betano

4.90

BFC Daugavpils win

6.8%

Avg Implied 9.1% · @ 9.96

Edge

-2.3%

Best 5 market prices

1xBet

12.60

Marathonbet

12.00

Betfair

11.00

Bet365

9.50

Betano

8.25

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Riga

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.3

Avg scored

2.3

Avg conceded

1.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.17	1.00	2.67	0.67	1.67	1.33
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (7)	1.29	1.43	2.00	1.67	0.75	1.25
vs Weaker (23)	2.43	0.87	2.83	0.42	2.00	1.36
Clean sheet %	50% (+22pp vs league)

This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.6

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.50	1.57	1.93	1.86	1.12	1.31
vs Stronger (5)	0.80	3.40	0.50	4.00	1.00	3.00
vs Similar (22)	1.55	1.05	2.00	1.45	1.09	0.64
vs Weaker (3)	2.33	2.33	4.00	2.00	1.50	2.50
Clean sheet %	27% (-2pp vs league)

This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).

Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.5

82.4%

@ 1.09-1.5%

Under 1.5

17.6%

@ 5.70+1.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.11

Marathonbet

1.08

1xBet

1.08

Under

Bet365

6.00

1xBet

5.55

Marathonbet

5.55

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5

60.2%

@ 1.36-6.7%

Under 2.5

39.8%

@ 2.75+6.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Unibet

1.38

Bet365

1.36

Marathonbet

1.36

1xBet

1.36

Under

Bet365

3.00

1xBet

2.70

Marathonbet

2.70

Unibet

2.60

Over/Under 3.5

Over 3.5

37.8%

@ 1.95-9.2%

Under 3.5

62.2%

@ 1.73+9.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Unibet

2.00

Betano

1.95

1xBet

1.94

Marathonbet

1.94

Bet365

1.91

Under

Bet365

1.80

Marathonbet

1.75

1xBet

1.75

Betano

1.67

Unibet

1.66

Both teams to score

Yes

43.8%

@ 1.78-7.6%

56.2%

@ 1.89+7.6%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

1.91

1xBet

1.83

Marathonbet

1.83

Unibet

1.57

Unibet

2.10

1xBet

1.84

Marathonbet

1.81

Bet365

1.80

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

2-0

13.7%@ 6.58+7.3%

3-0

11.3%@ 7.30+5.5%

1-0

10.3%@ 8.65+5.5%

2-1

8.7%@ 8.18+3.6%

1-1

7.7%@ 10.81+3.8%

3-1

7.2%@ 9.18+2.6%

4-0

7.0%@ 10.22+2.9%

0-0

5.2%@ 19.81+3.0%

Riga goals ↓

	BFC Daugavpils goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.2%	2.1%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
1	10%	7.7%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%
2	14%	8.7%	2.8%	0.6%	0.1%
3	11%	7.2%	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%
4	7.0%	4.4%	1.4%	0.3%	0.0%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = BFC Daugavpils goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Rīgas FS

2.43

Riga

2.29

Auda

2.00

FK Liepaja

1.88

BFC Daugavpils

1.62

Super Nova

1.33

Grobiņa

1.00

FS Jelgava

0.86

Ogre United

0.57

Tukums

0.38

Riga is 0.66 points better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 1.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Riga

3.00

Rīgas FS

2.57

FK Liepaja

2.00

BFC Daugavpils

1.50

Super Nova

1.17

Grobiņa

1.14

FS Jelgava

1.14

Auda

1.14

Ogre United

1.00

Tukums

0.75

Riga is 1.50 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Auda

0.57

Rīgas FS

0.86

BFC Daugavpils

0.88

Super Nova

1.00

Riga

1.14

FK Liepaja

1.25

FS Jelgava

1.71

Tukums

2.38

Grobiņa

2.57

Ogre United

3.00

Riga is 0.27 goals worse than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 0.88).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Riga or Draw

93.2%

Avg Implied 88.6% · @ 1.05

Edge

+4.6%

77%

16%

covers Riga + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.07

Unibet

1.06

Bet365

1.03

Betfair

1.03

Riga or BFC Daugavpils

83.8%

Avg Implied 85.1% · @ 1.09

Edge

-1.3%

77%

16%

covers Riga + BFC Daugavpils

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.13

Unibet

1.11

Betfair

1.08

Bet365

1.08

Marathonbet

1.07

Draw or BFC Daugavpils

23.0%

Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.53

Edge

-3.3%

77%

16%

covers Draw + BFC Daugavpils

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

4.33

1xBet

3.84

Marathonbet

3.84

Bet365

3.80

Betano

2.77

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Riga over/under 0.5

Over

91.6%

@ 1.04+2.0%

Under

8.4%

@ 9.00-2.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.04

Under

Bet365

9.00

Riga over/under 1.5

Over

70.8%

@ 1.23-4.4%

Under

29.2%

@ 3.71+4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.25

Marathonbet

1.23

Betfair

1.22

1xBet

1.20

Under

1xBet

3.90

Bet365

3.75

Betfair

3.75

Marathonbet

3.42

Riga over/under 2.5

Over

45.0%

@ 1.76-7.6%

Under

55.0%

@ 1.95+7.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

1.80

Marathonbet

1.77

1xBet

1.74

Bet365

1.73

Under

Bet365

2.00

1xBet

1.97

Marathonbet

1.92

Betfair

1.91

Riga over/under 3.5

Over

23.7%

@ 2.90-8.0%

Under

76.3%

@ 1.35+8.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

3.20

1xBet

2.85

Marathonbet

2.79

Bet365

2.75

Under

Bet365

1.40

1xBet

1.36

Marathonbet

1.34

Betfair

1.30

BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5

Over

47.1%

@ 1.73-5.9%

Under

52.9%

@ 1.95+5.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.80

Marathonbet

1.75

1xBet

1.71

Betfair

1.67

Under

Betfair

2.10

Bet365

1.91

1xBet

1.90

Marathonbet

1.90

BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5

Over

13.4%

@ 4.54-7.0%

Under

86.6%

@ 1.16+7.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

4.95

Bet365

4.50

Betfair

4.50

1xBet

4.20

Under

1xBet

1.18

Bet365

1.17

Betfair

1.17

Marathonbet

1.12

BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5

Over

2.7%

@ 10.50-6.2%

Under

97.3%

@ 1.02+6.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

10.50

Under

Bet365

1.02

BFC Daugavpils over/under 3.5

Over

0.4%

@ 21.00-99.6%

Under

99.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

21.00

Under

No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Riga, so a minus line means Riga give that many goals of a start and BFC Daugavpils receive them. At -1, Riga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Riga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Riga)

Riga -2

33.0%

@ 2.36-4.2%

Draw -2

22.4%

@ 3.97+0.2%

BFC Daugavpils +2

44.6%

@ 2.16+4.0%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Betfair

2.50

Marathonbet

2.33

Bet365

2.25

Draw

Marathonbet

4.15

Bet365

4.00

Betfair

3.75

Away

Bet365

2.25

Marathonbet

2.14

Betfair

2.10

Handicap -1 (Riga)

Riga -1

55.4%

@ 1.57-1.9%

Draw -1

21.6%

@ 4.38+1.0%

BFC Daugavpils +1

23.0%

@ 4.08+0.9%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.57

Marathonbet

1.57

Draw

Bet365

4.50

Marathonbet

4.25

Away

Bet365

4.33

Marathonbet

3.84

Handicap +1 (Riga)

Riga +1

93.2%

@ 1.05+4.0%

Draw +1

5.0%

@ 13.00-2.2%

BFC Daugavpils -1

1.8%

@ 26.00-1.8%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Bet365

1.05

Draw

Bet365

13.00

Away

Bet365

26.00

Handicap +2 (Riga)

Riga +2

98.2%

Draw +2

1.5%

BFC Daugavpils -2

0.3%

Best 5 market prices

Home

No market prices yet.

Draw

No market prices yet.

Away

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Riga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.3

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.77	0.40	0.80	0.27	0.73	0.53
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (7)	0.14	0.43	0.00	0.67	0.25	0.25
vs Weaker (23)	0.96	0.39	1.00	0.17	0.91	0.64
Clean sheet %	70% (+42pp vs league)

This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

0.8

Avg scored

0.4

Avg conceded

0.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.57	0.63	0.79	0.71	0.38	0.56
vs Stronger (5)	0.40	1.20	0.50	1.00	0.33	1.33
vs Similar (22)	0.50	0.41	0.82	0.64	0.18	0.18
vs Weaker (3)	1.33	1.33	1.00	1.00	1.50	1.50
Clean sheet %	60% (+32pp vs league)

This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5

Over 0.5

77.8%

@ 1.20+1.2%

Under 0.5

22.2%

@ 3.95-1.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.22

Marathonbet

1.22

Bet365

1.20

Betfair

1.17

Under

Betfair

4.50

Bet365

4.33

Marathonbet

3.48

1xBet

3.48

Half Time Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.5

39.8%

@ 2.00-6.1%

Under 1.5

60.2%

@ 1.69+6.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

2.05

1xBet

2.05

Betfair

2.00

Betano

1.98

Bet365

1.91

Under

Bet365

1.80

Betfair

1.73

Marathonbet

1.67

1xBet

1.67

Betano

1.60

Half Time Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5

15.9%

@ 4.22-5.8%

Under 2.5

84.1%

@ 1.17+5.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

4.50

Marathonbet

4.20

1xBet

4.20

Bet365

4.00

Under

Bet365

1.22

Betfair

1.17

Marathonbet

1.15

1xBet

1.15

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Riga over/under 0.5 HT

Over

65.5%

@ 1.31-4.8%

Under

34.5%

@ 3.10+4.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.31

Under

1xBet

3.10

Riga over/under 1.5 HT

Over

28.0%

@ 2.56-7.8%

Under

72.0%

@ 1.43+7.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

2.67

1xBet

2.46

Under

1xBet

1.48

Marathonbet

1.38

Riga over/under 2.5 HT

Over

9.3%

@ 5.80-6.5%

Under

90.7%

@ 1.09+6.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

5.80

Under

1xBet

1.09

BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HT

Over

29.0%

@ 3.10-0.6%

Under

71.0%

@ 1.30+0.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

3.20

1xBet

3.00

Under

1xBet

1.34

Marathonbet

1.27

BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HT

Over

6.0%

Under

94.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HT

Over

0.8%

Under

99.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Riga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.0

Avg scored

1.5

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.40	0.60	1.87	0.40	0.93	0.80
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (7)	1.14	1.00	2.00	1.00	0.50	1.00
vs Weaker (23)	1.48	0.48	1.83	0.25	1.09	0.73
Clean sheet %	60% (+32pp vs league)

This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.8

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.93	0.93	1.14	1.14	0.75	0.75
vs Stronger (5)	0.40	2.20	0.00	3.00	0.67	1.67
vs Similar (22)	1.05	0.64	1.18	0.82	0.91	0.45
vs Weaker (3)	1.00	1.00	3.00	1.00	0.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	40% (+12pp vs league)

This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5

Over 0.5

81.7%

@ 1.10-2.8%

Under 0.5

18.3%

@ 6.05+2.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.12

1xBet

1.09

Under

1xBet

6.10

Bet365

6.00

Second Half Over/Under 1.5

Over 1.5

56.9%

@ 1.56-1.9%

Under 1.5

43.1%

@ 2.23+1.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.62

1xBet

1.53

Marathonbet

1.53

Under

1xBet

2.24

Marathonbet

2.24

Bet365

2.20

Second Half Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5

25.9%

@ 2.67-8.4%

Under 2.5

74.1%

@ 1.39+8.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.75

Marathonbet

2.63

1xBet

2.63

Under

Bet365

1.40

1xBet

1.39

Marathonbet

1.39

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Riga over/under 0.5 2H

Over

74.4%

@ 1.19-3.1%

Under

25.6%

@ 4.10+3.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.19

Under

1xBet

4.10

Riga over/under 1.5 2H

Over

39.9%

@ 1.93-7.7%

Under

60.1%

@ 1.75+7.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.95

Marathonbet

1.91

Under

1xBet

1.76

Marathonbet

1.74

Riga over/under 2.5 2H

Over

15.4%

@ 4.00-7.7%

Under

84.6%

@ 1.20+7.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

4.00

Under

1xBet

1.20

BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2H

Over

38.3%

@ 2.52+1.8%

Under

61.7%

@ 1.45-1.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

2.56

1xBet

2.47

Under

1xBet

1.48

Marathonbet

1.41

BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2H

Over

7.0%

@ 9.40-2.8%

Under

93.0%

@ 1.02+2.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

9.80

1xBet

9.00

Under

1xBet

1.02

BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2H

Over

1.2%

Under

98.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge
Away under 3.5 goals	99.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Away under 2.5 HT goals	99.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Away under 2.5 2H goals	98.8%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 7.5	98.6%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	1xBet 1.01	-	-	-	+6.3%
Home +2 handicap	98.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Away under 2.5 goals	97.3%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.2%
Under 6.5	96.1%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	1xBet 1.05	-	-	-	+7.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals	94.0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Home or Draw	93.2%	1.05	Betano 1.07	Unibet 1.06	Bet365 1.03	Betfair 1.03	-	+4.6%
Home +1 handicap	93.2%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+4.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals	93.0%	1.02	1xBet 1.02	-	-	-	-	+2.8%
Home over 0.5 goals	91.6%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+2.0%
Home under 2.5 HT goals	90.7%	1.09	1xBet 1.09	-	-	-	-	+6.5%
Under 5.5	90.4%	1.11	Bet365 1.14	1xBet 1.10	Marathonbet 1.10	-	-	+8.3%
Away under 1.5 goals	86.6%	1.16	1xBet 1.18	Bet365 1.17	Betfair 1.17	Marathonbet 1.12	-	+7.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals	84.6%	1.20	1xBet 1.20	-	-	-	-	+7.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals	84.1%	1.17	Bet365 1.22	Betfair 1.17	Marathonbet 1.15	1xBet 1.15	-	+5.8%
Home or Away	83.8%	1.09	Betano 1.13	Unibet 1.11	Betfair 1.08	Bet365 1.08	Marathonbet 1.07	-1.3%
Over 1.5	82.4%	1.09	Bet365 1.11	Marathonbet 1.08	1xBet 1.08	-	-	-1.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals	81.7%	1.10	Bet365 1.12	1xBet 1.09	-	-	-	-2.8%
Under 4.5	79.6%	1.30	Bet365 1.33	Marathonbet 1.30	1xBet 1.30	Unibet 1.27	-	+9.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals	77.8%	1.20	1xBet 1.22	Marathonbet 1.22	Bet365 1.20	Betfair 1.17	-	+1.2%
Home win	77.0%	1.22	Unibet 1.35	Betano 1.28	1xBet 1.19	Bet365 1.18	Marathonbet 1.18	+2.7%
Home under 3.5 goals	76.3%	1.35	Bet365 1.40	1xBet 1.36	Marathonbet 1.34	Betfair 1.30	-	+8.0%
Home over 0.5 2H goals	74.4%	1.19	1xBet 1.19	-	-	-	-	-3.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals	74.1%	1.39	Bet365 1.40	1xBet 1.39	Marathonbet 1.39	-	-	+8.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals	72.0%	1.43	1xBet 1.48	Marathonbet 1.38	-	-	-	+7.8%
Away under 0.5 HT goals	71.0%	1.30	1xBet 1.34	Marathonbet 1.27	-	-	-	+0.6%
Home over 1.5 goals	70.8%	1.23	Bet365 1.25	Marathonbet 1.23	Betfair 1.22	1xBet 1.20	-	-4.4%

🎽 13. Player market rates

Riga · 2023/24

Anytime goalscorer

Matches in which the player scored

Ngonda Muzinga33%

Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%

Anthony Contreras25%

Gauthier Mankenda25%

Mikael Soisalo0%

Petar Bosančić0%

Douglas Aurélio0%

Miloš Jojić0%

Antonijs Černomordijs0%

Abdulrahman Taiwo0%

Raivis Jurkovskis0%

Nils Purins0%

Marko Regža0%

Hrvoje Babec0%

Eduards Daskevics0%

Baba Musah0%

Brian Peña0%

To be booked (yellow)

Matches in which the player was booked

Antonijs Černomordijs50%

Baba Musah50%

Ngonda Muzinga33%

Anthony Contreras25%

Petar Bosančić25%

Abdulrahman Taiwo25%

Gauthier Mankenda25%

Mikael Soisalo0%

Douglas Aurélio0%

Miloš Jojić0%

Raivis Jurkovskis0%

Nils Purins0%

Marko Regža0%

Hrvoje Babec0%

Eduards Daskevics0%

Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%

Brian Peña0%

Anytime assist

Matches in which the player assisted

Ngonda Muzinga33%

Douglas Aurélio25%

Gauthier Mankenda25%

Mikael Soisalo0%

Anthony Contreras0%

Petar Bosančić0%

Miloš Jojić0%

Antonijs Černomordijs0%

Abdulrahman Taiwo0%

Raivis Jurkovskis0%

Nils Purins0%

Marko Regža0%

Hrvoje Babec0%

Eduards Daskevics0%

Baba Musah0%

Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%

Brian Peña0%

Over 2.5 shots

Matches with 3+ shots taken

Anthony Contreras25%

Antonijs Černomordijs25%

Baba Musah25%

Ngonda Muzinga0%

Mikael Soisalo0%

Petar Bosančić0%

Douglas Aurélio0%

Miloš Jojić0%

Abdulrahman Taiwo0%

Raivis Jurkovskis0%

Nils Purins0%

Marko Regža0%

Gauthier Mankenda0%

Hrvoje Babec0%

Eduards Daskevics0%

Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%

Brian Peña0%

Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (27)

€16m

RF (29)

€11m

AUD (25)

€6m

FL (21)

€5m

OU (27)

€3m

SN (24)

€3m

GRO (25)

€3m

FJ (23)

€3m

BD (21)

€3m

TUK (20)

€2m

Riga's squad is €13m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€16m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (10)

€7m

RF (15)

€6m

AUD (11)

€3m

FL (7)

€2m

OU (12)

€2m

GRO (10)

€1m

SN (8)

€1m

FJ (8)

€1m

TUK (7)

€1m

BD (7)

€1m

Riga's attack is €6m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€7m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (5)

€3m

RF (4)

€2m

SN (6)

€1m

FL (4)

€1m

BD (6)

€1m

OU (4)

€1m

GRO (6)

€1m

FJ (5)

€0m

AUD (3)

€0m

TUK (3)

€0m

Riga's midfield is €2m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (12)

€6m

RF (10)

€3m

AUD (11)

€3m

FL (10)

€2m

FJ (10)

€1m

GRO (9)

€1m

TUK (10)

€1m

OU (11)

€1m

BD (8)

€1m

SN (10)

€1m

Riga's defence is €5m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€6m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

RIG wins

Draws

BD wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Riga vs BFC Daugavpils · H/A from RIG

Date	H/A	Game	Score
29/09/25	A	BFC Daugavpils Vs RIG	0-1
06/07/25	H	RIG Vs BFC Daugavpils	1-1
14/05/25	A	BFC Daugavpils Vs RIG	0-1
29/03/25	H	RIG Vs BFC Daugavpils	1-2
19/10/24	A	BFC Daugavpils Vs RIG	0-5
28/07/24	H	RIG Vs BFC Daugavpils	1-0
24/05/24	A	BFC Daugavpils Vs RIG	0-2
12/04/24	H	RIG Vs BFC Daugavpils	2-0

Riga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
31/08/26	A	FK Liepaja Vs RIG	3-2
27/08/26	H	RIG Vs KI Klaksvik	2-1
23/08/26	A	Rīgas FS Vs RIG	3-3
20/08/26	A	KI Klaksvik Vs RIG	0-0
13/08/26	A	Gyori ETO FC Vs RIG	1-1
09/08/26	H	RIG Vs Ogre United	4-1
06/08/26	H	RIG Vs Gyori ETO FC	1-0
02/08/26	H	RIG Vs Grobiņa	4-0
18/07/26	H	RIG Vs Tukums	3-1
03/07/26	H	RIG Vs FS Jelgava	3-0

BFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
29/08/26	A	Grobiņa Vs BD	1-0
22/08/26	A	Super Nova Vs BD	0-0
08/08/26	H	BD Vs Tukums	2-0
01/08/26	H	BD Vs FS Jelgava	2-1
26/07/26	A	Auda Vs BD	1-0
19/07/26	A	Ogre United Vs BD	0-4
04/07/26	H	BD Vs FK Liepaja	3-1
30/06/26	A	Rīgas FS Vs BD	3-1
09/11/25	A	Metta / LU Vs BD	3-1
02/11/25	H	BD Vs FK Liepaja	1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Riga

Latvia: Virsliga

Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DDDWL	2.34
Home	WWWWW	2.52
Away	WDDDL	2.16

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	72%	80%	64%
AVG goals	3.14	3.04	3.24
Over 1.5 %	80%	88%	72%
Over 2.5 %	58%	64%	52%
Over 3.5 %	36%	28%	44%
Scored	2.30	2.44	2.16
Conceded	0.84	0.60	1.08
BTTS	46%	40%	52%
Clean Sheet	52%	60%	44%
Corners	11.25	8.50	14.00
Cards	4.25	5.00	3.50

BFC Daugavpils

Latvia: Virsliga

Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWWDL	1.32
Home	DLWWW	1.68
Away	LWLDL	0.96

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	36%	52%	20%
AVG goals	3.20	3.52	2.88
Over 1.5 %	76%	84%	68%
Over 2.5 %	60%	68%	52%
Over 3.5 %	42%	40%	44%
Scored	1.48	1.80	1.16
Conceded	1.72	1.72	1.72
BTTS	64%	64%	64%
Clean Sheet	24%	24%	24%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Rīgas FS	7	17	71%	2.4	18	6	+12	3.4	71%	57%	43%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	11	6	2	3	2.6	0.9	-
2	Riga	7	16	71%	2.3	21	8	+13	4.1	100%	86%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	16	7	3	6	3.0	1.1	-
3	FK Liepaja	8	15	62%	1.9	16	10	+6	3.2	88%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	2	1	2	2.0	1.2	-
4	Auda	7	14	57%	2.0	8	4	+4	1.7	57%	14%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	3	0	3	1.1	0.6	-
5	BFC Daugavpils	8	13	50%	1.6	12	7	+5	2.4	62%	50%	38%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.5	0.9	-
6	Super Nova	6	8	33%	1.3	7	6	+1	2.2	83%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.2	1.0	-
7	Grobiņa	7	7	29%	1.0	8	18	-10	3.7	86%	71%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	1.1	2.6	-
8	FS Jelgava	7	6	29%	0.9	8	12	-4	2.9	71%	57%	29%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	0	1	1.1	1.7	-
9	Ogre United	7	4	14%	0.6	7	21	-14	4.0	100%	100%	71%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	2	1	1	1.0	3.0	-
10	Tukums	8	3	12%	0.4	6	19	-13	3.1	88%	75%	38%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	0	1	0.8	2.4	-

Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches

Riga vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction & Stats

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Riga

BFC Daugavpils

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Riga

BFC Daugavpils

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Riga

BFC Daugavpils

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

🎽 13. Player market rates

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Riga

BFC Daugavpils

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature