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Riga vs FK Liepaja Result & Analysis

Date: 16/09/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Riga
Riga
Vs
43%
27%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Riga are favoured to win, with a 43% chance of triumph, a 27% draw probability and a 30% chance for FK Liepaja. The model expects 2.8 goals, with the most likely total being two, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. Riga’s home form shows they score 1.69 and concede 0.69 against weaker opposition, while FK Liepaja’s away record is 1.0 scored and 1.67 conceded against stronger teams. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 82.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.3% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 72.0% and Over 2.5 cards at 71.6%. Riga’s recent five games are LWDDD, coming off a defeat to FK Liepaja, whereas FK Liepaja’s last five are WLWWL, coming off a win against Riga.

Results analysis

Riga’s recent run of losses has finally turned into a win, extending their recovery after a 2-3 defeat to FK Liepaja. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 43% probability, and the result was indeed a 2-0 victory, confirming the call. The predicted total of 2.8 goals leaned on the most likely 2-goal outcome, and the match delivered exactly that. The single suggested pick, Over 1.5 with a 78.3% probability, also hit as the game saw two goals. All selections settled as forecast, and the model’s prediction proved accurate.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Riga win✓ Hit
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja win✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RigaRiga

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W21W11D32W04L40W20W31W11D13LH·SPA24/07H·RUŽ28/07H·GIL03/08H·MET07/08A·GIL11/08A·BFC15/08A·AUD21/08H·TUK28/08A·RĪG04/09A·VAL11/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.730.801.710.641.750.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.331.002.000.001.001.50
vs Weaker (27)1.780.781.690.691.860.86
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L22D21W10W32W12L12L10W22DH·BSC21/07A·BSC28/07A·MET31/07H·BFC04/08H·AUD07/08A·SPA14/08A·TUK20/08H·RĪG29/08A·VAL04/09A·SUP11/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.201.431.072.001.31
vs Stronger (7)0.861.570.751.501.001.67
vs Similar (11)1.821.092.171.171.401.00
vs Weaker (12)2.171.081.000.502.751.38
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.4%
Under 2.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.1%
Under 3.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.5%
0-0
7.2%
2-0 ✓
7.2%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
Riga goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
01234
07.2%6.4%4.8%2.0%0.6%
18.1%13%7.5%3.2%1.0%
27.2%9.1%5.8%2.4%0.8%
33.7%4.7%3.0%1.3%0.4%
41.4%1.8%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.36
Riga
2.25
Rīgas FS
2.11
FK Liepaja
1.94
Auda
1.50
Tukums
1.06
BFC Daugavpils
0.94
Spartaks Jurmala
0.86
Super Nova
0.56
Metta / LU
0.53
Riga is 0.31 points better than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.81
Rīgas FS
2.31
FK Liepaja
2.00
Riga
1.89
Auda
1.22
Metta / LU
1.06
Tukums
1.06
Spartaks Jurmala
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
0.83
Super Nova
0.67
Riga is 0.11 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (1.89 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Valmiera / BSS
0.69
Rīgas FS
0.89
Auda
0.92
FK Liepaja
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Tukums
1.92
Spartaks Jurmala
2.08
Super Nova
2.25
Metta / LU
2.44
Riga is 0.53 goals better than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (0.64 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RigaRiga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W10W11D03L10W00D20W10W01LH·SPA24/07H·RUŽ28/07H·GIL03/08H·MET07/08A·GIL11/08A·BFC15/08A·AUD21/08H·TUK28/08A·RĪG04/09A·VAL11/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.430.790.290.940.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)1.330.332.000.001.000.50
vs Weaker (27)0.810.440.690.310.930.57
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L00D11D10W01L12L01L00D01LH·BSC21/07A·BSC28/07A·MET31/07H·BFC04/08H·AUD07/08A·SPA14/08A·TUK20/08H·RĪG29/08A·VAL04/09A·SUP11/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.360.360.560.50
vs Stronger (7)0.290.570.000.500.670.67
vs Similar (11)0.450.360.670.500.200.20
vs Weaker (12)0.580.420.250.000.750.62
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RigaRiga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D01L21W01L30W20W11D01L12LH·SPA24/07H·RUŽ28/07H·GIL03/08H·MET07/08A·GIL11/08A·BFC15/08A·AUD21/08H·TUK28/08A·RĪG04/09A·VAL11/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.370.930.360.810.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.000.670.000.000.001.00
vs Weaker (27)0.960.331.000.380.930.29
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L22D10W00D31W00D11D10W21WH·BSC21/07A·BSC28/07A·MET31/07H·BFC04/08H·AUD07/08A·SPA14/08A·TUK20/08H·RĪG29/08A·VAL04/09A·SUP11/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.771.070.711.440.81
vs Stronger (7)0.571.000.751.000.331.00
vs Similar (11)1.360.731.500.671.200.80
vs Weaker (12)1.580.670.750.502.000.75
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards82.9%--------
Over 1.578.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners72.0%--------
Over 2.5 cards71.6%--------

🎽 13. Player market rates

Riga · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas Aurélio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Riga's squad is €11m more valuable than FK Liepaja's (€16m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Riga's attack is €5m more valuable than FK Liepaja's (€7m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Riga's midfield is €2m more valuable than FK Liepaja's (€3m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Riga's defence is €4m more valuable than FK Liepaja's (€6m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
RIG wins
1
Draws
2
FL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Riga vs FK Liepaja · H/A from RIG
DateH/AGameScore
01/07/22AFK Liepaja Vs RIG0-0
06/05/22HRIG Vs FK Liepaja0-1
19/03/22AFK Liepaja Vs RIG1-0

RigaRiga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/22AValmiera / BSS Vs RIG3-1
04/09/22ARīgas FS Vs RIG1-1
28/08/22HRIG Vs Tukums3-1
21/08/22AAuda Vs RIG0-2
15/08/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs RIG0-4
11/08/22AGIL Vicente Vs RIG4-0
07/08/22HRIG Vs Metta / LU3-2
03/08/22HRIG Vs GIL Vicente1-1
28/07/22HRIG Vs Ružomberok2-1
24/07/22HRIG Vs Spartaks Jurmala2-1

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/09/22ASuper Nova Vs FL2-2
04/09/22AValmiera / BSS Vs FL0-1
29/08/22HFL Vs Rīgas FS1-2
20/08/22ATukums Vs FL2-1
14/08/22ASpartaks Jurmala Vs FL2-3
07/08/22HFL Vs Auda1-0
04/08/22HFL Vs BFC Daugavpils2-1
31/07/22AMetta / LU Vs FL2-2
28/07/22ABSC Young Boys Vs FL3-0
21/07/22HFL Vs BSC Young Boys0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Riga
Riga
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDL2.15
HomeWWDWW2.53
AwayLWWDL1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%82%53%
AVG goals2.502.412.59
Over 1.5 %74%76%71%
Over 2.5 %47%41%53%
Over 3.5 %26%18%35%
Scored1.741.821.65
Conceded0.760.590.94
BTTS32%35%29%
Clean Sheet53%53%53%
Corners8.6011.506.67
Cards5.003.506.50
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWD1.78
HomeWLWWL1.69
AwayDWLWD1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %53%50%56%
AVG goals2.912.503.31
Over 1.5 %72%62%81%
Over 2.5 %62%50%75%
Over 3.5 %41%31%50%
Scored1.751.502.00
Conceded1.161.001.31
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet31%38%25%
Corners9.5010.508.50
Cards4.004.503.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3685
72%
2.4
10125+76
3.5
89%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2RigaRiga3681
72%
2.2
6823+45
2.5
72%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7361.90.6
-
3Rīgas FSRīgas FS3676
61%
2.1
8332+51
3.2
86%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.30.9
-
4FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3670
58%
1.9
7242+30
3.2
78%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
5AudaAuda3654
44%
1.5
4433+11
2.1
64%
39%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.20.9
-
6TukumsTukums3638
31%
1.1
3869-31
3.0
78%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.9
-
7BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3634
25%
0.9
3067-37
2.7
72%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.9
-
8Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala3631
25%
0.9
3775-38
3.1
86%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3620
11%
0.6
2481-57
2.9
75%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.2
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3619
11%
0.5
3888-50
3.5
89%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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