PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Riga vs FS Jelgava Result & Analysis

Date: 03/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 3-0
Riga
Riga
Vs
67%
20%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Riga win✓ Hit
67.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava win✗ Miss
12.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RigaRiga

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-660W32W00D10W30W10W00D11D34L20WH·AUD13/09A·FS 21/09A·RĪG25/09A·BFC29/09H·FK 03/10A·MET19/10H·TUK24/10A·GRO02/11H·RĪG07/11A·AUD29/06
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.230.832.470.602.001.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.401.402.331.670.001.00
vs Weaker (25)2.400.722.500.332.311.08
Clean sheet %57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D23L41W23L11D11D00D22D22D11DH·TUK23/08A·GRO29/08A·RĪG13/09H·RIG21/09H·AUD27/09A·SUP04/10H·BFC18/10A·FK 25/10H·MET02/11A·TUK09/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.301.201.130.871.47
vs Stronger (13)1.151.691.291.571.001.83
vs Similar (13)0.770.920.830.500.711.29
vs Weaker (4)1.501.252.001.501.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.0%
Under 3.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.2%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.7%
1-0
9.3%
3-0 ✓
8.3%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.5%
4-0
4.6%
Riga goals ↓
FS Jelgava goals →
01234
05.5%3.1%1.7%0.5%0.1%
19.3%9.7%3.8%1.1%0.2%
211%9.8%4.2%1.2%0.3%
38.3%7.2%3.1%0.9%0.2%
44.6%4.0%1.7%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = FS Jelgava goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Riga is 1.43 points better than FS Jelgava in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 0.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Riga is 1.86 goals better than FS Jelgava in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Riga is 0.57 goals better than FS Jelgava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.71).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RigaRiga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D00D10W10W00D10W02L20WH·AUD13/09A·FS 21/09A·RĪG25/09A·BFC29/09H·FK 03/10A·MET19/10H·TUK24/10A·GRO02/11H·RĪG07/11A·AUD29/06
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.300.730.201.130.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.000.600.000.670.000.50
vs Weaker (25)1.120.240.920.081.310.38
Clean sheet %77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D23L30W00D01L00D00D22D11D00DH·TUK23/08A·GRO29/08A·RĪG13/09H·RIG21/09H·AUD27/09A·SUP04/10H·BFC18/10A·FK 25/10H·MET02/11A·TUK09/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.470.470.530.73
vs Stronger (13)0.540.690.290.430.831.00
vs Similar (13)0.380.540.500.330.290.71
vs Weaker (4)0.750.501.001.000.500.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RigaRiga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W32W00D10W20W00D00D01L32W00DH·AUD13/09A·FS 21/09A·RĪG25/09A·BFC29/09H·FK 03/10A·MET19/10H·TUK24/10A·GRO02/11H·RĪG07/11A·AUD29/06
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.531.730.400.870.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)1.400.802.331.000.000.50
vs Weaker (25)1.280.481.580.251.000.69
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D23L10W11D00D00D11D11DH·TUK23/08A·GRO29/08A·RĪG13/09H·RIG21/09H·AUD27/09A·SUP04/10H·BFC18/10A·FK 25/10H·MET02/11A·TUK09/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.700.730.670.330.73
vs Stronger (13)0.621.001.001.140.170.83
vs Similar (13)0.380.380.330.170.430.57
vs Weaker (4)0.750.751.000.500.501.00
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.1%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Riga · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas Aurélio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Riga's squad is €13m more valuable than FS Jelgava's (€16m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Riga's attack is €6m more valuable than FS Jelgava's (€7m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Riga's midfield is €2m more valuable than FS Jelgava's (€3m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Riga's defence is €5m more valuable than FS Jelgava's (€6m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
7
RIG wins
1
Draws
0
FJ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Riga vs FS Jelgava · H/A from RIG
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25AFS Jelgava Vs RIG2-3
01/07/25HRIG Vs FS Jelgava3-0
10/05/25HRIG Vs FS Jelgava2-0
15/03/25AFS Jelgava Vs RIG1-1
05/10/24AFS Jelgava Vs RIG0-2
19/07/24HRIG Vs FS Jelgava6-1
19/05/24AFS Jelgava Vs RIG1-5
08/04/24HRIG Vs FS Jelgava2-0

RigaRiga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/06/26AAuda Vs RIG0-2
07/11/25HRIG Vs Rīgas FS3-4
02/11/25AGrobiņa Vs RIG1-1
24/10/25HRIG Vs Tukums0-0
19/10/25AMetta / LU Vs RIG0-1
03/10/25HRIG Vs FK Liepaja3-0
29/09/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs RIG0-1
25/09/25ARīgas FS Vs RIG0-0
21/09/25AFS Jelgava Vs RIG2-3
13/09/25HRIG Vs Auda6-0

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25ATukums Vs FJ1-1
02/11/25HFJ Vs Metta / LU2-2
25/10/25AFK Liepaja Vs FJ2-2
18/10/25HFJ Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
04/10/25ASuper Nova Vs FJ1-1
27/09/25HFJ Vs Auda1-1
21/09/25HFJ Vs Riga2-3
13/09/25ARīgas FS Vs FJ1-4
29/08/25AGrobiņa Vs FJ3-2
23/08/25HFJ Vs Tukums1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Riga
Riga
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLW2.44
HomeWWWDL2.44
AwayDWWDW2.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %76%76%76%
AVG goals3.183.163.20
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %34%28%40%
Scored2.442.562.32
Conceded0.740.600.88
BTTS42%36%48%
Clean Sheet56%64%48%
Corners---
Cards---
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 7 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDDD0.94
HomeDLDDD1.28
AwayLWDDD0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%32%8%
AVG goals2.682.522.84
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %32%32%32%
Scored1.061.200.92
Conceded1.621.321.92
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet14%20%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Rīgas FSRīgas FS717
71%
2.4
186+12
3.4
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.60.9
-
2RigaRiga716
71%
2.3
218+13
4.1
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7363.01.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja815
62%
1.9
1610+6
3.2
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
4AudaAuda714
57%
2.0
84+4
1.7
57%
14%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.10.6
-
5BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils813
50%
1.6
127+5
2.4
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.50.9
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova68
33%
1.3
76+1
2.2
83%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.0
-
7GrobiņaGrobiņa77
29%
1.0
818-10
3.7
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.12.6
-
8FS JelgavaFS Jelgava76
29%
0.9
812-4
2.9
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.7
-
9Ogre UnitedOgre United74
14%
0.6
721-14
4.0
100%
100%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.03.0
-
10TukumsTukums83
12%
0.4
619-13
3.1
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.82.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches