Riga vs Grobiņa Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026

Time: 15:00

Final 4-0

Riga

76%

16%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Grobiņa

Latvia: Virsliga

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Riga's recent dominance at home, with a 5-game winning streak, makes them the clear favourite to win against Grobiņa. The model rates them highly due to their strong home form against weaker opponents, with an average of 2.62 goals scored and just 0.38 conceded. In contrast, Grobiņa's away form is concerning, with an average of 0.25 goals scored and 3.25 conceded against stronger opponents.

The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.1 goals and the most likely total of 3 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a probability of 13.5%. Riga's home scoring and conceding trends suggest they will continue to thrive against Grobiņa.

The model's selection is the Home win, with a probability of 76%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 82.3%. Other selections include Home win, with a probability of 76.4%, and the actual result was a Home win. The probabilities for the match result are 76% for a home win, 16% for a draw, and 7% for an away win.

Results analysis

Riga's win extends their 5-game winning run, with a convincing 4-0 scoreline against Grobiņa. The model's selection of a home win proved correct, as it was the favoured outcome with a pre-match probability of 76%. The final scoreline and actual result both backed up the model's call. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 82.3%, and Home win hit with a probability of 76.4%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Riga win✓ Hit

76.4%

Avg Implied 81.6% · @ 1.12

Edge

-5.2%

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.14

Unibet

1.14

Bet365

1.14

888Sport

1.13

Dafabet

1.13

Draw✗ Miss

16.5%

Avg Implied 12.1% · @ 7.54

Edge

+4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

9.06

Bet365

8.00

Betfair

8.00

BetVictor

8.00

Marathonbet

7.80

Grobiņa win✗ Miss

7.2%

Avg Implied 6.3% · @ 14.41

Edge

+0.8%

Best 5 market prices

BetVictor

17.00

10Bet

17.00

1xBet

16.00

Marathonbet

16.00

Pinnacle

15.73

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Riga

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.3

Avg scored

1.7

Avg conceded

0.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.27	0.87	2.56	0.62	1.93	1.14
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (5)	1.40	1.40	2.33	1.67	0.00	1.00
vs Weaker (25)	2.44	0.76	2.62	0.38	2.25	1.17
Clean sheet %	53% (+25pp vs league)

This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Grobiņa

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.3

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.97	1.50	1.25	1.12	0.64	1.93
vs Stronger (6)	0.50	3.17	1.00	2.00	0.00	4.33
vs Similar (11)	1.36	1.64	1.67	1.50	1.00	1.80
vs Weaker (13)	0.85	0.62	1.00	0.43	0.67	0.83
Clean sheet %	30% (+1pp vs league)

This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

82.3%

@ 1.09-2.3%

Under 1.5

17.7%

@ 5.98+2.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

888Sport

1.11

Bet365

1.11

Unibet

1.10

1xBet

1.07

Marathonbet

1.07

Under

Betfair

7.00

Bet365

6.00

888Sport

6.00

Marathonbet

5.80

1xBet

5.80

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

60.0%

@ 1.34-8.6%

Under 2.5

40.0%

@ 2.93+8.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

888Sport

1.36

Unibet

1.36

Bet365

1.36

10Bet

1.35

Superbet

1.34

Under

Betfair

3.20

Bet365

3.00

10Bet

3.00

BetVictor

3.00

888Sport

2.90

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

37.7%

@ 1.92-10.6%

Under 3.5

62.3%

@ 1.79+10.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

SBO

2.00

888Sport

2.00

Unibet

1.94

Pinnacle

1.93

Superbet

1.92

Under

Pinnacle

1.85

10Bet

1.85

1xBet

1.80

Marathonbet

1.80

Superbet

1.80

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

44.5%

@ 2.11+0.8%

55.5%

@ 1.63-0.8%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Bet365

2.20

BetVictor

2.15

1xBet

2.15

Marathonbet

2.15

Superbet

2.12

888Sport

1.67

William Hil

1.67

Betfair

1.65

Unibet

1.65

Superbet

1.65

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

2-0

13.5%@ 6.05+6.4%

3-0

11.1%@ 6.10+4.1%

1-0

10.3%@ 8.79+5.4%

2-1

8.8%@ 9.26+4.2%

1-1

7.9%@ 14.24+4.9%

3-1

7.2%@ 9.48+2.7%

4-0 ✓

6.8%@ 7.99+1.4%

0-0

5.2%@ 21.56+3.2%

Riga goals ↓

	Grobiņa goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.2%	2.2%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
1	10%	7.9%	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%
2	14%	8.8%	2.9%	0.6%	0.1%
3	11%	7.2%	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%
4	6.8%	4.4%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Riga

3.00

Rīgas FS

2.60

BFC Daugavpils

2.00

FK Liepaja

1.80

Auda

1.75

Super Nova

1.50

Grobiņa

0.80

Ogre United

0.80

Tukums

0.50

FS Jelgava

0.00

Riga is 2.20 points better than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Riga

3.20

Rīgas FS

2.40

BFC Daugavpils

2.00

FK Liepaja

2.00

Super Nova

1.50

Grobiņa

1.20

Ogre United

1.00

Tukums

0.83

Auda

0.75

FS Jelgava

0.20

Riga is 2.00 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals scored per game (3.20 vs 1.20).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Riga

0.40

Rīgas FS

0.60

Auda

0.75

BFC Daugavpils

1.00

FK Liepaja

1.20

Super Nova

1.25

FS Jelgava

1.80

Tukums

2.00

Grobiņa

3.00

Ogre United

3.00

Riga is 2.60 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.40 vs 3.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	82.3%	1.09	888Sport 1.11	Bet365 1.11	Unibet 1.10	1xBet 1.07	Marathonbet 1.07	-2.3%	✓ Hit
Home win	76.4%	1.12	Betano 1.14	Unibet 1.14	Bet365 1.14	888Sport 1.13	Dafabet 1.13	-5.2%	✓ Hit

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (24)

€13m

AUD (16)

€3m

BD (21)

€3m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (9)

€6m

AUD (7)

€2m

BD (7)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (5)

€2m

BD (6)

€1m

AUD (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RIG (10)

€5m

AUD (9)

€2m

BD (8)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Riga vs Grobiņa · H/A from RIG

Date	H/A	Game	Score
02/11/25	A	Grobiņa Vs RIG	1-1
10/08/25	H	RIG Vs Grobiņa	2-0
14/06/25	A	Grobiņa Vs RIG	0-2
19/04/25	H	RIG Vs Grobiņa	3-0
31/08/24	H	RIG Vs Grobiņa	6-1
22/06/24	A	Grobiņa Vs RIG	0-6
02/05/24	H	RIG Vs Grobiņa	2-0
10/03/24	A	Grobiņa Vs RIG	0-1

Riga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
18/07/26	H	RIG Vs Tukums	3-1
03/07/26	H	RIG Vs FS Jelgava	3-0
29/06/26	A	Auda Vs RIG	0-2
07/11/25	H	RIG Vs Rīgas FS	3-4
02/11/25	A	Grobiņa Vs RIG	1-1
24/10/25	H	RIG Vs Tukums	0-0
19/10/25	A	Metta / LU Vs RIG	0-1
03/10/25	H	RIG Vs FK Liepaja	3-0
29/09/25	A	BFC Daugavpils Vs RIG	0-1
25/09/25	A	Rīgas FS Vs RIG	0-0

Grobiņa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
27/07/26	H	GRO Vs Ogre United	2-2
20/07/26	A	Super Nova Vs GRO	2-0
05/07/26	H	GRO Vs Tukums	3-1
23/11/25	A	JDFS Alberts Vs GRO	0-1
20/11/25	H	GRO Vs JDFS Alberts	0-0
09/11/25	H	GRO Vs Auda	2-2
02/11/25	H	GRO Vs Riga	1-1
26/10/25	A	Rīgas FS Vs GRO	5-0
18/10/25	H	GRO Vs Super Nova	0-0
04/10/25	H	GRO Vs Tukums	1-0

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Riga

Latvia: Virsliga

Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DLWWW	2.44
Home	WDLWW	2.44
Away	DWWDW	2.44

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	76%	76%	76%
AVG goals	3.28	3.36	3.20
Over 1.5 %	84%	92%	76%
Over 2.5 %	58%	64%	52%
Over 3.5 %	36%	32%	40%
Scored	2.52	2.72	2.32
Conceded	0.76	0.64	0.88
BTTS	44%	40%	48%
Clean Sheet	54%	60%	48%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Grobiņa

Latvia: Virsliga

Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DWWLD	0.80
Home	DDDWD	1.12
Away	LWLWL	0.48

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	20%	28%	12%
AVG goals	2.80	2.84	2.76
Over 1.5 %	76%	76%	76%
Over 2.5 %	44%	48%	40%
Over 3.5 %	34%	40%	28%
Scored	0.88	1.24	0.52
Conceded	1.92	1.60	2.24
BTTS	46%	60%	32%
Clean Sheet	20%	24%	16%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 10. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Riga	5	15	100%	3.0	16	2	+14	3.6	100%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	13	6	2	5	3.2	0.4	-
2	Rīgas FS	5	13	80%	2.6	12	3	+9	3.0	60%	40%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.4	0.6	-
3	BFC Daugavpils	6	12	67%	2.0	12	6	+6	3.0	83%	67%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	1	1	1	2.0	1.0	-
4	FK Liepaja	5	9	60%	1.8	10	6	+4	3.2	100%	80%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.2	-
5	Auda	4	7	50%	1.8	3	3	+0	1.5	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	2	0	2	0.8	0.8	-
6	Super Nova	4	6	50%	1.5	6	5	+1	2.8	100%	75%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.2	-
7	Grobiņa	5	4	20%	0.8	6	15	-9	4.2	100%	80%	80%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	3.0	-
8	Ogre United	5	4	20%	0.8	5	15	-10	4.0	100%	100%	80%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	3.0	-
9	Tukums	6	3	17%	0.5	5	12	-7	2.8	83%	67%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	2.0	-
10	FS Jelgava	5	0	0%	0.0	1	9	-8	2.0	60%	40%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.2	1.8	-

Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches

Riga vs Grobiņa Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Riga

Grobiņa

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Riga

Grobiņa

📊 9. Overall Statistics

🏆 10. League Table

A Pro feature