Riga is the clear favourite to win against Ogre United, with a home win probability of 91% according to the Pythia prediction model. This is largely due to Ogre United's struggles on the road, where they concede an average of 2 goals per game against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, Riga has been in excellent form at home, scoring an average of 2.69 goals per game and conceding just 0.38. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 4.5 goals and a most likely score of 3-0, although this scoreline only has a 10.7% probability.
Riga's home win percentage is 91%, with a draw percentage of 7% and an away win percentage of 2%. The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 91.1%. The model also suggests taking Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 94.3% and a 4% edge, as well as Over 2.5 goals, with a probability of 82.9% and a 6% edge.
Results analysis
The win extends Riga's 5-game winning run, with a resounding 4-1 victory over Ogre United. The final score confirms the actual result, as predicted by the Pythia model. The model's selection of a home win was correct, with a pre-match probability of 91%. This favourite lived up to expectations, delivering a convincing victory. The suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5 hitting at 94.3%, Over 2.5 also hitting at 82.9%, and Home win hitting at 91.1%.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Riga winā Hit
91.1%
Avg Implied 88.8% · @ 1.04
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Pinnacle
1.04
Drawā Miss
6.6%
Avg Implied 7.3% · @ 12.70
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
17.06
1xBet
16.00
Dafabet
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betfair
13.00
Ogre United winā Miss
2.3%
Avg Implied 3.9% · @ 23.93
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
34.00
Marathonbet
27.00
Betfair
26.00
1xBet
26.00
Pinnacle
24.30
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Riga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.87
2.53
0.59
1.92
1.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.40
2.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
2.44
0.76
2.57
0.36
2.27
1.27
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ogre United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.03
2.64
0.64
2.06
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.93
1.40
2.57
0.86
1.38
1.88
vs Weaker (15)
2.73
0.67
2.71
0.43
2.75
0.88
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (29%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.3%
@ 1.04+4.1%
Under 1.5
5.7%
@ 9.50-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Under
Betfair
11.00
1xBet
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
82.9%
@ 1.20+6.2%
Under 2.5
17.1%
@ 3.94-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.2%
@ 1.52+5.7%
Under 3.5
33.8%
@ 2.33-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Under
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.41
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.9%
@ 2.21+5.1%
No
53.1%
@ 1.59-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Betfair
2.20
No
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
10.7%@ 6.07+3.9%
4-0
10.4%@ 6.46+4.0%
2-0
8.3%@ 7.23+2.6%
5-0
8.1%@ 8.36+3.2%
3-1
6.9%@ 10.44+3.0%
4-1 ā
6.7%@ 11.08+3.0%
2-1
5.4%@ 12.33+2.0%
6-0
5.2%@ 12.65+2.0%
Riga goals ↓
Ogre United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
1
4.0%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
2
8.3%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
3
11%
6.9%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
10%
6.7%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = Ogre United goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
GrobiÅa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Riga is 1.71 points better than Ogre United in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 0.57).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
GrobiÅa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Riga is 2.00 goals better than Ogre United in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 1.00).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
GrobiÅa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Riga is 1.86 goals better than Ogre United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 3.00).
ā±ļø Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
š² 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
š 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Riga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.33
0.65
0.24
1.00
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
0.96
0.28
0.79
0.14
1.18
0.45
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ogre United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.29
0.14
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.60
1.43
0.14
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.20
1.14
0.14
0.88
0.25
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Riga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.53
1.88
0.35
0.92
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.40
0.80
2.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.48
0.48
1.79
0.21
1.09
0.82
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ogre United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ogre United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.63
1.36
0.50
1.38
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.80
1.14
0.71
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (15)
1.73
0.47
1.57
0.29
1.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ogre United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
94.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.1%
ā Hit
Home win
91.1%
1.04
10Bet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Pinnacle
1.04
+2.2%
ā Hit
Over 2.5
82.9%
1.20
Superbet
1.27
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+6.2%
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Riga's squad is €12m more valuable than Ogre United's (€16m vs €3m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Riga's attack is €5m more valuable than Ogre United's (€7m vs €2m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Riga's midfield is €2m more valuable than Ogre United's (€3m vs €1m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Riga's defence is €5m more valuable than Ogre United's (€6m vs €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →