Riga are favoured to win, with a 45% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and 28% for Rīgas FS. The model expects 2.8 goals on average, most likely a 2-goal total with a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.8% chance. Riga, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Rīgas FS, on the road, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 5.5 (93.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.1%), Home +2 handicap (88.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.8%) and Over 19.5 fouls (85.3%). Riga’s unbeaten run of five games, capped by a 2-1 win over KI Klaksvik, and Rīgas FS’s recent 3-0 victory over Ogre United set the stage for a tight contest.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Riga win
46.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS win
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Riga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.00
2.67
0.67
1.67
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.43
2.00
1.67
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (23)
2.43
0.87
2.83
0.42
2.00
1.36
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.37
2.93
1.67
1.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.09
1.91
1.33
2.17
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (19)
3.11
1.05
4.00
1.33
2.30
0.80
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.0%
Under 2.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.4%
2-0
7.8%
0-0
7.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
Riga goals ↓
Rīgas FS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
5.9%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
1
8.4%
13%
6.9%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.4%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.3%
5.1%
3.1%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.7%
2.1%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Riga is 0.14 points worse than Rīgas FS in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 2.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Auda
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Grobiņa
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Riga is 0.43 goals better than Rīgas FS in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 2.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Riga is 0.29 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Riga or Draw
73.0%
Avg Implied -
46%
27%
27%
covers Riga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga or Rīgas FS
73.3%
Avg Implied -
46%
27%
27%
covers Riga + Rīgas FS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rīgas FS
53.8%
Avg Implied -
46%
27%
27%
covers Draw + Rīgas FS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Riga over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5
Over
70.1%
Under
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Riga, so a minus line means Riga give that many goals of a start and Rīgas FS receive them. At -1, Riga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Riga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Riga)
Riga -2
10.4%
Draw -2
14.4%
Rīgas FS +2
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Riga)
Riga -1
24.8%
Draw -1
21.5%
Rīgas FS +1
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Riga)
Riga +1
73.0%
Draw +1
15.5%
Rīgas FS -1
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Riga)
Riga +2
88.5%
Draw +2
7.8%
Rīgas FS -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Riga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.43
0.00
0.67
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.39
1.00
0.17
0.91
0.64
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.40
0.93
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.91
0.50
1.33
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.58
0.53
2.00
0.67
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Riga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.60
1.87
0.40
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.48
0.48
1.83
0.25
1.09
0.73
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.70
1.53
0.73
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.00
0.83
0.83
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
0.53
2.00
0.67
1.10
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Riga · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas Aurélio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Rīgas FS · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žiga Lipušček14%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Panić38%
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Adam Markhiyev25%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Herdi Prenga12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Stefan Panić12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Adam Markhiyev0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Darko Lemajić25%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Riga's squad is €4m more valuable than Rīgas FS's (€16m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Riga and Rīgas FS have a similar attack value (both €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Riga and Rīgas FS have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Riga's defence is €3m more valuable than Rīgas FS's (€6m vs €3m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Liepaja
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
Tukums