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Riga vs Super Nova Result & Analysis

Date: 06/03/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 2-0
Riga
Riga
Vs
78%
15%
7%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

Riga wināœ“ Hit
78.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ— Miss
15.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova wināœ— Miss
6.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RigaRiga

Last 10 – goals for & against
100-1000D61W22D10W10W20W50W101W40W21WH·RÄŖG25/08H·GRO31/08A·AUD14/09H·VAL19/09H·FK 29/09A·FS 05/10A·BFC19/10H·TUK27/10H·MET03/11A·RÄŖG10/11
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.900.702.870.402.931.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.251.250.501.002.001.50
vs Weaker (26)3.150.623.230.313.080.92
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W30W20W20W01L41W41W40W20W30WH·LEE31/08A·RĒZ08/09A·RÄŖG15/09H·TUK22/09A·JFK28/09H·VAL05/10A·PRO19/10A·SMI27/10A·MĀR02/11H·OGR10/11← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.200.672.670.801.730.53
vs Stronger (14)1.141.071.571.140.711.00
vs Similar (10)3.700.504.600.802.800.20
vs Weaker (6)2.170.002.000.002.330.00
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%011%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.5%
Under 2.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.5%
Under 3.5
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 āœ“
12.5%
3-0
11.0%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
8.6%
3-1
7.6%
1-1
7.2%
4-0
7.2%
4-1
5.0%
Riga goals ↓
Super Nova goals →
01234
04.3%1.8%0.9%0.2%0.0%
18.8%7.2%2.3%0.5%0.1%
213%8.6%3.0%0.7%0.1%
311%7.6%2.6%0.6%0.1%
47.2%5.0%1.7%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = Super Nova goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
Riga
2.44
Rīgas FS
2.42
FK Liepaja
1.69
BFC Daugavpils
1.33
Auda
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.06
Tukums
1.00
Grobiņa
0.95
Super Nova
0.89
Metta / LU
0.86
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Riga is 1.56 points better than Super Nova in terms of average points per game (2.44 vs 0.89).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.78
Riga
2.36
FK Liepaja
1.64
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
Super Nova
1.22
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.08
Metta / LU
1.08
Tukums
1.08
Grobiņa
0.89
JDFS Alberts
0.00
Riga is 1.14 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals scored per game (2.36 vs 1.22).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Riga
0.72
Rīgas FS
1.08
FS Jelgava
1.28
Auda
1.36
FK Liepaja
1.53
Super Nova
1.56
Grobiņa
1.68
BFC Daugavpils
1.72
Tukums
1.75
Metta / LU
2.06
Riga is 0.83 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals conceded per game (0.72 vs 1.56).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RigaRiga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D21W11D10W00D00D20W41W20W11DH·RÄŖG25/08H·GRO31/08A·AUD14/09H·VAL19/09H·FK 29/09A·FS 05/10A·BFC19/10H·TUK27/10H·MET03/11A·RÄŖG10/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.271.200.201.200.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.250.750.000.500.501.00
vs Weaker (26)1.350.191.380.151.310.23
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W10W20W00D11D21W00D10W10WH·LEE31/08A·RĒZ08/09A·RÄŖG15/09H·TUK22/09A·JFK28/09H·VAL05/10A·PRO19/10A·SMI27/10A·MĀR02/11H·OGR10/11← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.401.270.530.670.27
vs Stronger (14)0.570.640.710.860.430.43
vs Similar (10)1.500.302.000.401.000.20
vs Weaker (6)1.000.001.330.000.670.00
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RigaRiga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D40W11D00D10W20W30W60W20W10WH·RÄŖG25/08H·GRO31/08A·AUD14/09H·VAL19/09H·FK 29/09A·FS 05/10A·BFC19/10H·TUK27/10H·MET03/11A·RÄŖG10/11
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.431.670.201.730.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.000.500.500.501.500.50
vs Weaker (26)1.810.421.850.151.770.69
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Super NovaSuper Nova

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W10W00D01L30W20W40W10W20WH·LEE31/08A·RĒZ08/09A·RÄŖG15/09H·TUK22/09A·JFK28/09H·VAL05/10A·PRO19/10A·SMI27/10A·MĀR02/11H·OGR10/11← 1. LigaVirsliga →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.271.400.271.070.27
vs Stronger (14)0.570.430.860.290.290.57
vs Similar (10)2.200.202.600.401.800.00
vs Weaker (6)1.170.000.670.001.670.00
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.1%-------āœ“ Hit
Home win78.1%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸŽ½ 13. Player market rates

Riga · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas AurƩlio0%
MiloÅ” Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian PeƱa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas AurƩlio0%
MiloÅ” Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian PeƱa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas AurƩlio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
MiloÅ” Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian PeƱa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas AurƩlio0%
MiloÅ” Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian PeƱa0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
Riga's squad is €12m more valuable than Super Nova's (€16m vs €3m).

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
Riga's attack is €6m more valuable than Super Nova's (€7m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
Riga's midfield is €2m more valuable than Super Nova's (€3m vs €1m).

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
Riga's defence is €5m more valuable than Super Nova's (€6m vs €1m).

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
7
RIG wins
1
Draws
0
SN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Riga vs Super Nova · H/A from RIG
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/23HRIG Vs Super Nova1-1
06/08/23ASuper Nova Vs RIG1-5
31/05/23HRIG Vs Super Nova5-1
20/04/23ASuper Nova Vs RIG0-4
30/09/22ASuper Nova Vs RIG1-4
17/07/22HRIG Vs Super Nova1-0
10/05/22ASuper Nova Vs RIG1-4
01/04/22HRIG Vs Super Nova2-0

RigaRiga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/11/24ARīgas FS Vs RIG1-2
03/11/24HRIG Vs Metta / LU4-0
27/10/24HRIG Vs Tukums10-1
19/10/24ABFC Daugavpils Vs RIG0-5
05/10/24AFS Jelgava Vs RIG0-2
29/09/24HRIG Vs FK Liepaja1-0
19/09/24HRIG Vs Valmiera / BSS1-0
14/09/24AAuda Vs RIG2-2
31/08/24HRIG Vs Grobiņa6-1
25/08/24HRIG Vs Rīgas FS0-0

Super NovaSuper Nova

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/11/24HSN Vs Ogre United3-0
02/11/24AMārupe Vs SN0-2
27/10/24ASmiltene Vs SN0-4
19/10/24AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs SN1-4
05/10/24HSN Vs Valmiera II4-1
28/09/24AJFK Ventspils Vs SN1-0
22/09/24HSN Vs Tukums II2-0
15/09/24ARīgas FS II Vs SN0-2
08/09/24ARēzekne FA Vs SN0-3
31/08/24HSN Vs Leevon / PPK3-0

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Riga
Riga
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.28
HomeWWWWW2.42
AwayWDWWW2.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %70%77%62%
AVG goals3.223.193.25
Over 1.5 %78%69%88%
Over 2.5 %58%50%67%
Over 3.5 %38%35%42%
Scored2.462.582.33
Conceded0.760.620.92
BTTS44%31%58%
Clean Sheet54%65%42%
Corners12.0012.00-
Cards1.001.00-
Super Nova
Super Nova
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.46
HomeWWWWW1.58
AwayWLWWW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%38%
AVG goals3.183.752.65
Over 1.5 %78%83%73%
Over 2.5 %54%67%42%
Over 3.5 %42%54%31%
Scored1.662.001.35
Conceded1.521.751.31
BTTS40%42%38%
Clean Sheet38%38%38%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8526+59
3.1
81%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.40.7
-
2Rīgas FSRīgas FS3687
78%
2.4
10039+61
3.9
78%
72%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.81.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3661
50%
1.7
5955+4
3.2
83%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.5
-
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3648
36%
1.3
5262-10
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.7
-
5AudaAuda3645
36%
1.2
4449-5
2.6
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.4
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3638
22%
1.1
3946-7
2.4
69%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.3
-
7TukumsTukums3636
25%
1.0
3963-24
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.8
-
8GrobiņaGrobiņa3836
24%
0.9
3464-30
2.6
68%
37%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3632
17%
0.9
4456-12
2.8
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.6
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3631
22%
0.9
3974-35
3.1
78%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
11JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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