Riga’s recent unbeaten run of five games, capped by a 2-1 win over KI Klaksvik, gives the model a clear edge in this Virsliga clash. The Pythia model rates a home win at 77%, a draw at 16% and an away win at 7%, making a Riga victory the single most likely outcome. The average goal tally is 3.3, with the most probable total being three goals (22% chance). The single scoreline the model identifies as most likely is 2-0 for Riga, with a 12.3% probability.
Riga’s home form is formidable against weaker opposition, averaging 2.83 goals scored and only 0.42 conceded. Super Nova, playing away against a stronger side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The suggested picks reflect this imbalance: Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Under 7.5 (98.0%), Home +2 handicap (97.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.4%), Under 6.5 (94.8%), Home or Draw (92.7%), Home +1 handicap (92.7%), and Home over 0.5 goals (92.5%). These selections underscore the expectation that Riga will dominate the match, limiting Super Nova’s scoring opportunities while securing a comfortable win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Riga win
74.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Super Nova win
8.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Riga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.00
2.67
0.67
1.67
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.43
2.00
1.67
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (23)
2.43
0.87
2.83
0.42
2.00
1.36
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.43
1.18
1.29
1.15
1.62
vs Stronger (13)
1.31
2.23
1.29
2.43
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.82
1.10
0.50
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.0%
Under 2.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.8%
Under 3.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.1%
3-0
10.1%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
9.0%
1-1
8.0%
3-1
7.6%
4-0
6.3%
4-1
4.7%
Riga goals ↓
Super Nova goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
2.2%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
1
9.0%
8.0%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
2
12%
9.1%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
10%
7.6%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
4
6.3%
4.7%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = Super Nova goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Riga is 0.95 points better than Super Nova in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Riga is 1.83 goals better than Super Nova in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Riga is 0.14 goals worse than Super Nova in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Riga or Draw
91.6%
Avg Implied -
75%
17%
8%
covers Riga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Riga or Super Nova
83.1%
Avg Implied -
75%
17%
8%
covers Riga + Super Nova
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Super Nova
25.3%
Avg Implied -
75%
17%
8%
covers Draw + Super Nova
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Riga over/under 0.5
Over
91.8%
Under
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 3.5
Over
24.1%
Under
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Riga, so a minus line means Riga give that many goals of a start and Super Nova receive them. At -1, Riga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Riga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Riga)
Riga -2
31.6%
Draw -2
21.7%
Super Nova +2
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Riga)
Riga -1
53.3%
Draw -1
21.4%
Super Nova +1
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Riga)
Riga +1
91.6%
Draw +1
5.9%
Super Nova -1
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Riga)
Riga +2
97.5%
Draw +2
2.0%
Super Nova -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Riga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.14
0.43
0.00
0.67
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.39
1.00
0.17
0.91
0.64
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.15
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.41
0.40
0.20
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Riga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.60
1.87
0.40
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.48
0.48
1.83
0.25
1.09
0.73
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Super Nova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Super Nova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.71
0.76
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.08
0.71
1.43
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.41
0.70
0.30
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Super Nova over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Riga · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Brian Peña0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Antonijs Černomordijs50%
Baba Musah50%
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Anthony Contreras25%
Petar Bosančić25%
Abdulrahman Taiwo25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ngonda Muzinga33%
Douglas Aurélio25%
Gauthier Mankenda25%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Anthony Contreras0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Antonijs Černomordijs0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Baba Musah0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Contreras25%
Antonijs Černomordijs25%
Baba Musah25%
Ngonda Muzinga0%
Mikael Soisalo0%
Petar Bosančić0%
Douglas Aurélio0%
Miloš Jojić0%
Abdulrahman Taiwo0%
Raivis Jurkovskis0%
Nils Purins0%
Marko Regža0%
Gauthier Mankenda0%
Hrvoje Babec0%
Eduards Daskevics0%
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom0%
Brian Peña0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Riga's squad is €12m more valuable than Super Nova's (€16m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Riga's attack is €6m more valuable than Super Nova's (€7m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Riga's midfield is €2m more valuable than Super Nova's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Riga's defence is €5m more valuable than Super Nova's (€6m vs €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →