Riga’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 3-3 draw against Rīgas FS, fuels the model’s confidence that the home side will secure victory. The Virsliga fixture is rated as a clear home win, with a 74% probability, a 17% chance of a draw and only 9% for Tukums to win. The model therefore picks a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total goals hover around 3.3, with the single most probable scoreline being 2-0, a 11.8% chance. Riga’s home form shows an average of 2.58 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded against weaker opponents, while Tukums, playing away against a stronger side, averages 0.8 scored and 2.6 conceded. The suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 84.6% and a Home win at 74.1%. The match is expected to produce a 2-0 result, reinforcing the model’s preference for a decisive home victory.
Results analysis
Riga’s unbeaten run in their last five matches, highlighted by a 3-3 draw against Rīgas FS, carried over into this game, while Tukums, still recovering from two consecutive defeats, struggled away. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win at 74.1 %, and it proved correct as Riga secured a 3-1 victory. The predicted 3-goal total came close to the 3-goal final score, with the model’s Over 1.5 selection hitting at 84.6 %. Both the favoured result and the key selections delivered, confirming the model’s accuracy for this Virsliga encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Riga win✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums win✗ Miss
8.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Riga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.83
2.53
0.60
2.00
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.40
2.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
2.44
0.72
2.58
0.33
2.31
1.08
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.77
1.38
1.75
0.93
1.79
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
2.67
1.43
2.71
0.80
2.60
vs Similar (15)
0.87
1.27
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.5%
No
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.8%
3-0
9.8%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.7%
1-1
8.1%
3-1 ✓
7.6%
4-0
6.1%
4-1
4.8%
Riga goals ↓
Tukums goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
2.2%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
1
8.7%
8.1%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
2
12%
9.2%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.8%
7.6%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
6.1%
4.8%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Riga goals (down), columns = Tukums goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Riga
2.67
Rīgas FS
2.33
FK Liepaja
2.00
Auda
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Super Nova
1.40
Grobiņa
0.67
Ogre United
0.67
FS Jelgava
0.50
Tukums
0.43
Riga is 2.24 points better than Tukums in terms of average points per game (2.67 vs 0.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.17
Rīgas FS
2.50
FK Liepaja
2.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.71
Super Nova
1.20
Auda
1.20
Grobiņa
1.17
Ogre United
1.17
Tukums
0.71
FS Jelgava
0.67
Riga is 2.45 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals scored per game (3.17 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.60
Riga
0.83
BFC Daugavpils
0.86
Super Nova
1.00
Rīgas FS
1.00
FK Liepaja
1.17
FS Jelgava
1.83
Tukums
2.14
Grobiņa
3.00
Ogre United
3.00
Riga is 1.31 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 2.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Riga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.30
0.73
0.20
1.13
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.12
0.24
0.92
0.08
1.31
0.38
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.56
0.88
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
1.42
0.86
1.57
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.47
0.29
0.29
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Riga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.53
1.80
0.40
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.40
0.80
2.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.32
0.48
1.67
0.25
1.00
0.69
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.81
0.88
0.21
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.25
0.57
1.14
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.80
0.71
0.71
0.12
0.88
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Riga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Riga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Riga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
Auda
Super Nova
Ogre United
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava