Riga's second team faces JDFS Alberts in a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.6 goals. The home side has struggled recently, suffering two consecutive defeats, but their home form is slightly better, scoring 1.73 goals on average and conceding 1.18. In contrast, JDFS Alberts has shown resilience away from home, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 0.8 against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a home win, with a 59% probability, and a draw at 21%. The away win is the least likely outcome, with a 20% probability. The most likely total number of goals is 3, with a 21% probability. The most likely score is 2-1, with a 9.4% probability.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 59% probability. Suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a 88.6% probability, and Over 2.5, with a 70.3% probability.
The home team has a 59% chance of winning, a 21% chance of drawing, and a 20% chance of losing. The model's suggested picks are Over 1.5 (88.6%), Over 2.5 (70.3%), and the other selections in the suggested picks list with their respective probabilities.
Results analysis
After a streak of three defeats, Rīga FS II’s home form faltered as JDFS Alberts secured a 3-1 victory. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 59% probability, but the outcome proved wrong, with the model’s call being incorrect. The final score was 1-3, confirming the away win. The model’s selections performed impressively: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3%, Under 7.5 at 96.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 93.4%, Under 6.5 at 92.4%, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 91.1%, and Over 1.5 at 88.6%. All picks were settled and hit.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rīgas FS II win✗ Miss
59.3%
Avg Implied 17.0% · @ 5.30
Edge
+42.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.70
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Dafabet
5.20
Draw✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.57
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.60
Betano
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Dafabet
4.60
JDFS Alberts win✓ Hit
19.7%
Avg Implied 63.4% · @ 1.42
Edge
-43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.42
1xBet
1.41
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rīgas FS II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.67
2.00
1.08
1.59
2.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.22
0.67
3.00
0.75
1.60
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
1.57
2.10
1.56
1.22
1.58
2.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JDFS Alberts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.90
2.13
0.73
2.07
1.07
vs Stronger (17)
2.06
0.94
2.25
0.88
1.89
1.00
vs Similar (10)
2.10
0.60
1.67
0.17
2.75
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.67
4.00
3.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
@ 1.08+2.8%
Under 1.5
11.4%
@ 6.50-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.08
Under
1xBet
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.3%
@ 1.36+3.2%
Under 2.5
29.7%
@ 2.77-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Under
1xBet
2.78
Marathonbet
2.78
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.2%
@ 1.92+1.3%
Under 3.5
50.8%
@ 1.76-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Betano
1.90
Under
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.6%
@ 1.50+5.3%
No
33.4%
@ 2.38-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
No
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Marathonbet
2.34
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%@ 16.00+6.8%
1-1
8.9%@ 9.00+4.3%
3-1
7.2%@ 34.25+6.1%
2-0
7.2%@ 32.25+5.9%
2-2
6.1%@ 12.00+2.7%
3-0
5.5%@ 64.25+4.9%
1-0
5.3%@ 19.25+3.2%
1-2
5.3%@ 8.03+0.2%
Rīgas FS II goals ↓
JDFS Alberts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
2.7%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
1
5.3%
8.9%
5.3%
2.3%
0.7%
2
7.2%
9.4%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
5.5%
7.2%
4.7%
2.1%
0.7%
4
3.2%
4.2%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rīgas FS II goals (down), columns = JDFS Alberts goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Rīgas FS II is 1.83 points worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Rīgas FS II is 0.50 goals worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Rīgas FS II is 3.50 goals worse than JDFS Alberts in terms of goals conceded per game (4.17 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rīgas FS II or Draw✗ Miss
80.3%
Avg Implied 36.3% · @ 2.53
Edge
+44.0%
59%
21%
20%
covers Rīgas FS II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.70
Bet365
2.60
1xBet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.52
Betano
2.45
Rīgas FS II or JDFS Alberts✓ Hit
79.1%
Avg Implied 80.6% · @ 1.14
Edge
-1.5%
59%
21%
20%
covers Rīgas FS II + JDFS Alberts
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Draw or JDFS Alberts✓ Hit
40.7%
Avg Implied 83.2% · @ 1.10
Edge
-42.5%
59%
21%
20%
covers Draw + JDFS Alberts
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.2%
@ 1.37+23.8%
Under
9.8%
@ 2.71-23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Under
1xBet
2.71
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
67.5%
@ 2.84+35.3%
Under
32.5%
@ 1.35-35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.84
Marathonbet
2.84
Under
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
41.1%
@ 6.50+26.9%
Under
58.9%
@ 1.07-26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Under
1xBet
1.07
Rīgas FS II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.0%
@ 1.02-15.9%
Under
27.0%
@ 8.10+15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.02
Under
1xBet
8.10
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.6%
@ 1.35-30.6%
Under
62.4%
@ 2.90+30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Under
1xBet
2.90
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
14.5%
@ 2.07-30.0%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.66+30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Under
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
JDFS Alberts over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 3.70-20.4%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.22+20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.22
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rīgas FS II, so a minus line means Rīgas FS II give that many goals of a start and JDFS Alberts receive them. At -1, Rīgas FS II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rīgas FS II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rīgas FS II)Actual: JDFS Alberts
Rīgas FS II -2
20.7%
Draw -2
17.8%
JDFS Alberts +2
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rīgas FS II)Actual: JDFS Alberts
Rīgas FS II -1
38.5%
Draw -1
20.8%
JDFS Alberts +1
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rīgas FS II)Actual: JDFS Alberts
Rīgas FS II +1
80.3%
@ 2.58+46.1%
Draw +1
11.4%
@ 3.71-12.4%
JDFS Alberts -1
8.4%
@ 2.08-33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.63
Marathonbet
2.52
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
Away
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Handicap +2 (Rīgas FS II)Actual: Draw
Rīgas FS II +2
91.6%
@ 1.65+38.4%
Draw +2
5.6%
@ 4.30-14.8%
JDFS Alberts -2
2.8%
@ 3.34-23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.65
Draw
Marathonbet
4.30
Away
Marathonbet
3.34
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rīgas FS II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.85
0.62
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.44
2.00
0.50
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.52
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.67
1.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JDFS Alberts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
1.00
0.47
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
0.35
1.25
0.50
0.67
0.22
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.20
0.50
0.17
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.0%
@ 1.17-9.2%
Under 0.5
30.0%
@ 4.45+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.4%
@ 1.96-11.3%
Under 1.5
64.6%
@ 1.71+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Betfair
1.95
Betano
1.91
Under
Betfair
1.75
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.65
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.8%
@ 4.10-9.8%
Under 2.5
87.2%
@ 1.20+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.23
Betfair
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.2%
@ 2.26-1.3%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.54+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.26
Under
1xBet
1.54
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 7.30-3.8%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.06+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Under
1xBet
1.06
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 11.00-7.1%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
55.5%
@ 1.40-9.4%
Under
44.5%
@ 2.59+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Under
1xBet
2.59
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.0%
@ 2.87-12.7%
Under
81.0%
@ 1.33+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.87
Under
1xBet
1.33
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 6.85-10.0%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.07+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.85
Under
1xBet
1.07
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rīgas FS II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.83
1.15
0.46
0.88
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.00
0.25
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
1.10
1.22
0.56
0.92
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (JDFS Alberts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JDFS Alberts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.53
1.13
0.27
1.27
0.80
vs Stronger (17)
1.12
0.59
1.00
0.38
1.22
0.78
vs Similar (10)
1.40
0.40
1.17
0.00
1.75
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.9%
Under 0.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.1%
Under 1.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.9%
Under 2.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
58.8%
Under
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JDFS Alberts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
88.6%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.20
1xBet
1.23
Betfair
1.17
-
-
-
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
84.0%
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.0%
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.1%
1.14
Betfair
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
73.0%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
-
-15.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.3%
1.36
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
70.0%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →