Rīgas FS II are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 46 % chance of triumph, a 26 % chance of a draw and a 29 % chance of an away win. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals in total, yet the most likely single scoreline is a 1-1 draw, which the model assigns a 11.9 % probability. Rīgas FS II, playing at home against a weaker opponent, have been averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded, while JFK Ventspils, on the road to a stronger side, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.7 %), Under 6.5 (96.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3 %), Under 5.5 (91.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (90.3 %), Home +2 handicap (87.1 %), Away under 2.5 goals (84.9 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (82.2 %). The home side’s recent form shows three straight defeats before a win, while the visitors have suffered two consecutive losses.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rīgas FS II win
45.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils win
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rīgas FS II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.73
2.17
1.08
1.56
2.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.22
0.67
3.00
0.75
1.60
0.60
vs Weaker (21)
1.62
2.19
1.75
1.25
1.54
2.77
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.47
1.24
1.38
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.25
1.71
1.14
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
1.28
1.30
1.30
1.62
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.1%
Under 2.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.7%
Under 3.5
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.3%
1-2
7.2%
1-0
7.0%
2-0
7.0%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.8%
3-1
5.4%
Rīgas FS II goals ↓
JFK Ventspils goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
5.2%
4.2%
1.9%
0.6%
1
7.0%
12%
7.2%
3.2%
1.1%
2
7.0%
9.3%
6.2%
2.8%
0.9%
3
4.0%
5.4%
3.6%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.3%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rīgas FS II goals (down), columns = JFK Ventspils goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Rīgas FS II is 0.10 points better than JFK Ventspils in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Rīgas FS II is 0.70 goals better than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Rīgas FS II is 2.37 goals worse than JFK Ventspils in terms of goals conceded per game (4.17 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rīgas FS II or Draw
71.3%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
29%
covers Rīgas FS II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II or JFK Ventspils
74.3%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
29%
covers Rīgas FS II + JFK Ventspils
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or JFK Ventspils
54.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
29%
covers Draw + JFK Ventspils
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5
Over
51.5%
Under
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 3.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rīgas FS II, so a minus line means Rīgas FS II give that many goals of a start and JFK Ventspils receive them. At -1, Rīgas FS II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rīgas FS II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rīgas FS II)
Rīgas FS II -2
10.8%
Draw -2
14.1%
JFK Ventspils +2
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rīgas FS II)
Rīgas FS II -1
24.9%
Draw -1
20.7%
JFK Ventspils +1
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rīgas FS II)
Rīgas FS II +1
71.3%
Draw +1
15.8%
JFK Ventspils -1
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rīgas FS II)
Rīgas FS II +2
87.0%
Draw +2
8.5%
JFK Ventspils -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rīgas FS II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
1.00
0.58
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.44
2.00
0.50
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (21)
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.62
1.23
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.71
0.41
0.54
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.58
0.86
0.43
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
0.56
0.44
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.3%
Under 0.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.6%
Under 1.5
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
Under 2.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.5%
Under
57.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rīgas FS II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
1.17
0.50
0.89
1.17
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.00
0.25
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
1.19
1.25
0.62
0.92
1.54
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (JFK Ventspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
JFK Ventspils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.77
0.76
0.82
0.85
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.86
0.71
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.89
0.83
0.70
0.90
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.8%
Under 0.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.6%
Under 1.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.5%
Under 2.5
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.2%
Under
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.1%
Under
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JFK Ventspils over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
Leevon / PPK
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rēzekne FA