PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Rīgas FS II vs Mārupe Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/10/2026
Time: 09:00
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Vs
55%
22%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Rīga FS II are poised for a high-scoring outing at home, with the model projecting 3.5 goals on average. Their recent run of four losses has been tempered by a 1-3 defeat to Riga Mariners, yet the team still averages three goals scored and only 0.75 conceded against similar opposition. Mārūpe, struggling after two straight defeats and a 0-2 loss to JDFS Alberts, averages 1.44 goals for and 2.0 against when away. The model favours a home win, assigning a 55% chance to Rīga FS II, 22% to a draw and 22% to an away victory. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.6% probability. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.3%), Under 6.5 (93.5%), Home +2 handicap (90.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.4%), Over 1.5 (87.2%), Under 5.5 (85.8%) and Away under 2.5 goals (84.8%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rīgas FS II win
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mārupe win
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-1222D20W34L11D02L53W12L112L13L13LA·TUK20/10H·AUG25/10A·RIG01/11A·SMI08/11A·TUK20/07A·SMI25/07A·VAL01/08A·MET08/08H·JDF22/08A·RIG29/08
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.732.171.081.562.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)2.220.673.000.751.600.60
vs Weaker (21)1.622.191.751.251.542.77
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W01L01L04L21W24L01L21W14L02LH·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07A·SKA01/08H·LEE08/08H·SUP15/08A·VAL22/08H·JDF29/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.601.071.431.121.75
vs Stronger (1)1.004.00--1.004.00
vs Similar (16)1.311.811.141.571.442.00
vs Weaker (13)0.851.151.001.290.671.00
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.8%
Under 2.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.2%
Under 3.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.1%
No
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
1-2
5.9%
1-0
5.7%
3-0
5.1%
Rīgas FS II goals ↓
Mārupe goals →
01234
03.9%3.2%2.7%1.2%0.4%
15.7%9.6%5.9%2.6%0.9%
27.1%9.4%6.3%2.8%0.9%
35.1%6.8%4.5%2.0%0.7%
42.7%3.7%2.4%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rīgas FS II goals (down), columns = Mārupe goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Rīgas FS II is 0.36 points worse than Mārupe in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 0.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Rīgas FS II is 0.50 goals better than Mārupe in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Rīgas FS II is 1.74 goals worse than Mārupe in terms of goals conceded per game (4.17 vs 2.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rīgas FS II or Draw
77.5%
Avg Implied -
55%
22%
22%
covers Rīgas FS II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II or Mārupe
77.7%
Avg Implied -
55%
22%
22%
covers Rīgas FS II + Mārupe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mārupe
44.8%
Avg Implied -
55%
22%
22%
covers Draw + Mārupe
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5
Over
88.4%
Under
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5
Over
63.4%
Under
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 3.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 0.5
Over
73.8%
Under
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Rīgas FS II, so a minus line means Rīgas FS II give that many goals of a start and Mārupe receive them. At -1, Rīgas FS II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rīgas FS II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rīgas FS II)
Rīgas FS II -2
17.5%
Draw -2
16.8%
Mārupe +2
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rīgas FS II)
Rīgas FS II -1
34.3%
Draw -1
20.9%
Mārupe +1
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rīgas FS II)
Rīgas FS II +1
77.5%
Draw +1
12.7%
Mārupe -1
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rīgas FS II)
Rīgas FS II +2
90.2%
Draw +2
6.5%
Mārupe -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
90-910W00D12L00D00D21W12L19L11D01LA·TUK20/10H·AUG25/10A·RIG01/11A·SMI08/11A·TUK20/07A·SMI25/07A·VAL01/08A·MET08/08H·JDF22/08A·RIG29/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.831.000.580.671.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.330.442.000.500.800.40
vs Weaker (21)0.571.000.500.620.621.23
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MārupeMārupe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D01L01L00D12L00D01L02L02LH·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07A·SKA01/08H·LEE08/08H·SUP15/08A·VAL22/08H·JDF29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.630.290.570.250.69
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (16)0.310.690.290.570.330.78
vs Weaker (13)0.230.460.290.570.170.33
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L20W22D11D02L32W00D03L02L12LA·TUK20/10H·AUG25/10A·RIG01/11A·SMI08/11A·TUK20/07A·SMI25/07A·VAL01/08A·MET08/08H·JDF22/08A·RIG29/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.901.170.500.891.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.890.221.000.250.800.20
vs Weaker (21)1.051.191.250.620.921.54
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Mārupe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MārupeMārupe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W01L00D03L21W12L01L20W12L00DH·PRO25/10A·JFK01/11H·OGR08/11H·MET18/07A·RĒZ25/07A·SKA01/08H·LEE08/08H·SUP15/08A·VAL22/08H·JDF29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.970.790.860.881.06
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (16)1.001.120.861.001.111.22
vs Weaker (13)0.620.690.710.710.500.67
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mārupe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.3%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.3%-------
Under 6.593.5%-------
Home +2 handicap90.2%-------
Home over 0.5 goals88.4%-------
Over 1.587.2%-------
Under 5.585.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals84.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals82.8%-------
Home or Away77.7%-------
Home or Draw77.5%-------
Home +1 handicap77.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals73.8%-------
Under 4.572.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
4
RFI wins
0
Draws
0
MĀR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Rīgas FS II vs Mārupe · H/A from RFI
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/25HRFI Vs Mārupe4-1
27/04/25AMārupe Vs RFI1-2
24/08/24HRFI Vs Mārupe3-1
28/04/24AMārupe Vs RFI1-2

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ARiga Mariners Vs RFI3-1
22/08/26HRFI Vs JDFS Alberts1-3
08/08/26AMetta / LU Vs RFI12-1
01/08/26AValmiera / BSS Vs RFI2-1
25/07/26ASmiltene Vs RFI3-5
20/07/26ATukums II Vs RFI2-0
08/11/25ASmiltene Vs RFI1-1
01/11/25ARiga Mariners Vs RFI4-3
25/10/25HRFI Vs Augšdaugava2-0
20/10/25ATukums II Vs RFI2-2

MārupeMārupe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HMĀR Vs JDFS Alberts0-2
22/08/26AValmiera / BSS Vs MĀR4-1
15/08/26HMĀR Vs Super Nova 22-1
08/08/26HMĀR Vs Leevon / PPK0-1
01/08/26ASkanste Vs MĀR4-2
25/07/26ARēzekne FA Vs MĀR1-2
18/07/26HMĀR Vs Metta / LU0-4
08/11/25HMĀR Vs Ogre United0-1
01/11/25AJFK Ventspils Vs MĀR1-0
25/10/25HMĀR Vs Progress / AFA Olaine5-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.70
HomeWWLWL2.13
AwayLWLLL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%70%33%
AVG goals3.343.483.22
Over 1.5 %86%91%81%
Over 2.5 %64%65%63%
Over 3.5 %38%52%26%
Scored1.922.431.48
Conceded1.421.041.74
BTTS58%57%59%
Clean Sheet32%35%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Mārupe
Mārupe
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.16
HomeLLLWL1.46
AwayDLWLL0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%25%
AVG goals2.682.193.21
Over 1.5 %68%65%71%
Over 2.5 %54%42%67%
Over 3.5 %26%12%42%
Scored1.061.081.04
Conceded1.621.122.17
BTTS52%42%62%
Clean Sheet20%31%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

← all matches