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Rīgas FS vs BFC Daugavpils Result & Analysis

Date: 30/06/2022
Time: 16:00
Final 4-0
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Vs
65%
22%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rīgas FS win✓ Hit
64.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
12.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W41W31W10W30W30W02L22D04L20WH·SPA01/05A·BFC05/05H·MET11/05A·AUD15/05H·TUK19/05A·SUP23/05A·RIG27/05H·FK 18/06A·VAL22/06A·SPA26/06
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.421.002.110.782.701.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.752.501.502.000.003.00
vs Weaker (15)2.870.602.290.433.380.75
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W14L01L04L02L02L12L32W10W10WA·TUK30/04H·RĪG05/05A·VAL09/05H·FK 14/05A·RIG18/05A·SPA22/05H·AUD28/05A·MET17/06H·SUP21/06A·TUK26/06
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.501.001.220.671.78
vs Stronger (6)0.171.830.331.330.002.33
vs Similar (10)0.901.401.201.400.601.40
vs Weaker (2)2.501.002.000.003.002.00
Clean sheet %44% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.8%
Under 2.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.3%
1-0
11.3%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.2%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
6.5%
4-0 ✓
4.1%
Rīgas FS goals ↓
BFC Daugavpils goals →
01234
07.1%3.9%1.9%0.5%0.1%
111%11%3.8%1.0%0.2%
212%9.7%3.8%1.0%0.2%
38.2%6.5%2.6%0.7%0.1%
44.1%3.2%1.3%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rīgas FS goals (down), columns = BFC Daugavpils goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.36
Riga
2.25
Rīgas FS
2.11
FK Liepaja
1.94
Auda
1.50
Tukums
1.06
BFC Daugavpils
0.94
Spartaks Jurmala
0.86
Super Nova
0.56
Metta / LU
0.53
Rīgas FS is 1.17 points better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 0.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.81
Rīgas FS
2.31
FK Liepaja
2.00
Riga
1.89
Auda
1.22
Metta / LU
1.06
Tukums
1.06
Spartaks Jurmala
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
0.83
Super Nova
0.67
Rīgas FS is 1.47 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals scored per game (2.31 vs 0.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Valmiera / BSS
0.69
Rīgas FS
0.89
Auda
0.92
FK Liepaja
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Tukums
1.92
Spartaks Jurmala
2.08
Super Nova
2.25
Metta / LU
2.44
Rīgas FS is 0.97 goals better than BFC Daugavpils in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W21W20W00D20W10W02L01L00D10WH·SPA01/05A·BFC05/05H·MET11/05A·AUD15/05H·TUK19/05A·SUP23/05A·RIG27/05H·FK 18/06A·VAL22/06A·SPA26/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.210.471.000.441.400.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.251.250.501.500.001.00
vs Weaker (15)1.470.271.140.141.750.38
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L00D01L00D01L01L00D10WA·TUK30/04H·RĪG05/05A·VAL09/05H·FK 14/05A·RIG18/05A·SPA22/05H·AUD28/05A·MET17/06H·SUP21/06A·TUK26/06
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.220.440.330.330.110.56
vs Stronger (6)0.170.830.330.670.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.200.200.200.200.200.20
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %61% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W20W11D10W10W20W00D21W04L10WH·SPA01/05A·BFC05/05H·MET11/05A·AUD15/05H·TUK19/05A·SUP23/05A·RIG27/05H·FK 18/06A·VAL22/06A·SPA26/06
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.210.531.110.331.300.70
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.501.251.000.500.002.00
vs Weaker (15)1.400.331.140.291.620.38
Clean sheet %68% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W02L00D04L01L02L11D31W10W00DA·TUK30/04H·RĪG05/05A·VAL09/05H·FK 14/05A·RIG18/05A·SPA22/05H·AUD28/05A·MET17/06H·SUP21/06A·TUK26/06
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.611.060.670.890.561.22
vs Stronger (6)0.001.000.000.670.001.33
vs Similar (10)0.701.201.001.200.401.20
vs Weaker (2)2.000.501.000.003.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.7%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Rīgas FS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Friesenbichler17%
Andrej Ilić17%
Deniss Rakels0%
Pāvels Šteinbors0%
Jovan Vlalukin0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Petr Mareš0%
Artūrs Zjuzins0%
Stefan Panić0%
Tomislav Šarić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Vladislavs Sorokins0%
Tomáš Šimkovič0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Emerson Deocleciano0%
Alfusainey Jatta0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artūrs Zjuzins50%
Stefan Panić40%
Tomáš Šimkovič40%
Petr Mareš33%
Žiga Lipušček33%
Alfusainey Jatta33%
Vladislavs Sorokins25%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis20%
Pāvels Šteinbors17%
Andrej Ilić17%
Kevin Friesenbichler0%
Deniss Rakels0%
Jovan Vlalukin0%
Tomislav Šarić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Emerson Deocleciano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kevin Friesenbichler17%
Andrej Ilić17%
Deniss Rakels0%
Pāvels Šteinbors0%
Jovan Vlalukin0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Petr Mareš0%
Artūrs Zjuzins0%
Stefan Panić0%
Tomislav Šarić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Vladislavs Sorokins0%
Tomáš Šimkovič0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Emerson Deocleciano0%
Alfusainey Jatta0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrej Ilić17%
Žiga Lipušček17%
Kevin Friesenbichler0%
Deniss Rakels0%
Pāvels Šteinbors0%
Jovan Vlalukin0%
Vitālijs Jagodinskis0%
Petr Mareš0%
Artūrs Zjuzins0%
Stefan Panić0%
Tomislav Šarić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Vladislavs Sorokins0%
Tomáš Šimkovič0%
Emerson Deocleciano0%
Alfusainey Jatta0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
Rīgas FS's squad is €8m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€11m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
Rīgas FS's attack is €5m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€6m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
Rīgas FS and BFC Daugavpils have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
Rīgas FS's defence is €2m more valuable than BFC Daugavpils's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
RF wins
0
Draws
0
BD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Rīgas FS vs BFC Daugavpils · H/A from RF
DateH/AGameScore
05/05/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs RF1-4
19/03/22HRF Vs BFC Daugavpils4-0

Rīgas FSRīgas FS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/06/22ASpartaks Jurmala Vs RF0-2
22/06/22AValmiera / BSS Vs RF4-0
18/06/22HRF Vs FK Liepaja2-2
27/05/22ARiga Vs RF2-0
23/05/22ASuper Nova Vs RF0-3
19/05/22HRF Vs Tukums3-0
15/05/22AAuda Vs RF0-1
11/05/22HRF Vs Metta / LU3-1
05/05/22ABFC Daugavpils Vs RF1-4
01/05/22HRF Vs Spartaks Jurmala2-0

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/06/22ATukums Vs BD0-1
21/06/22HBD Vs Super Nova1-0
17/06/22AMetta / LU Vs BD2-3
28/05/22HBD Vs Auda1-2
22/05/22ASpartaks Jurmala Vs BD2-0
18/05/22ARiga Vs BD2-0
14/05/22HBD Vs FK Liepaja0-4
09/05/22AValmiera / BSS Vs BD1-0
05/05/22HBD Vs Rīgas FS1-4
30/04/22ATukums Vs BD0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLW2.21
HomeWWWWD2.22
AwayWWLLW2.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%67%70%
AVG goals3.422.893.90
Over 1.5 %89%89%90%
Over 2.5 %63%67%60%
Over 3.5 %47%44%50%
Scored2.422.112.70
Conceded1.000.781.20
BTTS42%44%40%
Clean Sheet47%56%40%
Corners---
Cards---
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.33
HomeWLLLW1.56
AwayLLLWW1.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%44%33%
AVG goals2.332.222.44
Over 1.5 %61%67%56%
Over 2.5 %39%44%33%
Over 3.5 %28%22%33%
Scored0.831.000.67
Conceded1.501.221.78
BTTS28%33%22%
Clean Sheet44%56%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3685
72%
2.4
10125+76
3.5
89%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2RigaRiga3681
72%
2.2
6823+45
2.5
72%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7361.90.6
-
3Rīgas FSRīgas FS3676
61%
2.1
8332+51
3.2
86%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.30.9
-
4FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3670
58%
1.9
7242+30
3.2
78%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
5AudaAuda3654
44%
1.5
4433+11
2.1
64%
39%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.20.9
-
6TukumsTukums3638
31%
1.1
3869-31
3.0
78%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.9
-
7BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3634
25%
0.9
3067-37
2.7
72%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.9
-
8Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala3631
25%
0.9
3775-38
3.1
86%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3620
11%
0.6
2481-57
2.9
75%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.2
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3619
11%
0.5
3888-50
3.5
89%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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