Riga FC, the clear favourite in this matchup, is poised to dominate at home, thanks in part to their opponent Grobina's struggles on the road. The model rates Riga FC a high 80% to win, with a 14% chance of a draw and just 6% for Grobina to secure a victory.
The expected total goals stands at 3.4, with the most likely score being 3 goals. The model's most likely score is a 2-0 win for Riga FC, with a probability of 12.2%.
Riga FC has been scoring an average of 3.18 goals at home against weaker opponents, while conceding just 1.64. In contrast, Grobina has been struggling to score away from home, averaging just 0.2 goals against stronger opponents, while conceding 3.4.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals with a probability of 86.3% and Home win at 79.8%. The home win percentage is 80%, the draw percentage is 14%, and the away win percentage is 6%.
Results analysis
The win extends Rīgas FS's unbeaten run to six matches, following their 6-1 thrashing of Grobiņa. The final scoreline reflected the model's prediction of a home win, which it correctly selected as its call, citing an 80% probability. The model's selection of a home win was not the only correct call, as it also suggested that the match would go over 1.5 goals, which hit, and this selection had an 86.3% probability. The model's selection of home win was correct, and it was the favourite going into the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rīgas FS win✓ Hit
79.8%
Avg Implied 81.5% · @ 1.12
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.14
Dafabet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Draw✗ Miss
14.0%
Avg Implied 12.4% · @ 7.32
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
8.59
Betfair
8.00
Dafabet
7.60
Bet365
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
Grobiņa win✗ Miss
6.1%
Avg Implied 6.1% · @ 15.03
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
19.00
BetVictor
18.00
10Bet
17.00
William Hil
17.00
Pinnacle
16.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rīgas FS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.23
2.64
1.43
2.00
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.45
1.00
1.60
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (19)
3.11
1.11
3.56
1.33
2.70
0.90
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.63
1.20
1.20
0.60
2.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
3.29
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.25
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.50
1.29
1.43
0.71
1.57
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.56
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.3%
@ 1.10+3.1%
Under 1.5
13.7%
@ 5.48-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Under
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.20
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.7%
@ 1.40+1.1%
Under 2.5
33.3%
@ 2.67-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Under
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.66
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.9%
@ 2.07+0.2%
Under 3.5
55.1%
@ 1.67-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.16
SBO
2.11
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.70
SBO
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.0%
@ 2.28+6.6%
No
53.0%
@ 1.54-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
No
Unibet
1.63
10Bet
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.2%@ 5.49+4.5%
3-0
11.2%@ 5.77+3.8%
2-1
8.4%@ 9.59+3.9%
1-0
8.3%@ 7.71+2.8%
4-0
7.7%@ 7.68+2.2%
3-1
7.7%@ 9.97+3.4%
1-1
6.7%@ 13.38+3.5%
4-1
5.3%@ 13.50+2.1%
Rīgas FS goals ↓
Grobiņa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
1.6%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.3%
6.7%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
2
12%
8.4%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
3
11%
7.7%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
7.7%
5.3%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rīgas FS goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Rīgas FS is 1.43 points better than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (2.43 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Rīgas FS is 1.43 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Rīgas FS is 1.71 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 2.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rīgas FS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.21
0.79
0.94
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.64
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
1.47
0.58
1.67
0.67
1.30
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.71
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.64
0.71
1.00
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.11
0.60
0.00
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rīgas FS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.63
1.43
0.64
1.06
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.82
0.60
0.60
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.63
0.53
1.89
0.67
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.60
0.40
0.20
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.57
0.67
0.33
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.86
0.57
0.43
0.29
1.29
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.44
0.60
0.40
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home win
79.8%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Dafabet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
-1.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rīgas FS · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žiga Lipušček14%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Panić38%
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Adam Markhiyev25%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Herdi Prenga12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Stefan Panić12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Adam Markhiyev0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Darko Lemajić25%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Rīgas FS's squad is €8m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€11m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Rīgas FS's attack is €5m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€6m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Rīgas FS's midfield is €1m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Rīgas FS's defence is €2m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€3m vs €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Riga
FK Liepaja
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
Tukums