Rīgas FS are the clear favourites, the model rating them at a 90% chance of victory, driven by a strong home form that averages four goals scored and only 1.33 conceded against weaker opposition. Grobiņa, on the other hand, struggles away, conceding 4.6 goals on average and scoring only 0.2 against stronger teams. The predicted outcome is a home win, with an expected total of 4.5 goals and the most likely scoreline 3-0, carrying a 10.2% probability. The match is expected to see more than six goals, with a 29% chance of a 6+ total. The probabilities for the match result are 90%home win, 7% draw, 3% away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.4%, Home +2 handicap at 99.2%, Home over 0.5 goals at 97.8%, Home or Draw at 97.2%, Home +1 handicap at 97.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.5%, Over 1.5 at 94.3%, and Home or Away at 92.7%. Each selection is listed with its exact probability.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rīgas FS win
88.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
8.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa win
3.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rīgas FS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.37
2.93
1.67
1.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.09
1.91
1.33
2.17
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (19)
3.11
1.05
4.00
1.33
2.30
0.80
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.87
1.14
1.21
0.62
2.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
3.62
1.00
2.00
0.20
4.60
vs Similar (15)
1.00
1.53
1.29
1.29
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
93.9%
Under 1.5
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
81.8%
Under 2.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
64.5%
Under 3.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
10.2%
4-0
9.4%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7.5%
5-0
6.9%
4-1
6.9%
2-1
6.1%
5-1
5.1%
Rīgas FS goals ↓
Grobiņa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.5%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
1
4.1%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
2
8.2%
6.1%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
3
10%
7.5%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
4
9.4%
6.9%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rīgas FS goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Rīgas FS is 1.43 points better than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (2.43 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Rīgas FS is 1.43 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Rīgas FS is 1.71 goals better than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 2.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rīgas FS or Draw
96.7%
Avg Implied -
89%
8%
3%
covers Rīgas FS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS or Grobiņa
91.9%
Avg Implied -
89%
8%
3%
covers Rīgas FS + Grobiņa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Grobiņa
11.4%
Avg Implied -
89%
8%
3%
covers Draw + Grobiņa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5
Over
97.5%
Under
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5
Over
88.3%
Under
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5
Over
71.4%
Under
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 3.5
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5
Over
52.0%
Under
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rīgas FS, so a minus line means Rīgas FS give that many goals of a start and Grobiņa receive them. At -1, Rīgas FS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rīgas FS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rīgas FS)
Rīgas FS -2
56.6%
Draw -2
18.5%
Grobiņa +2
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rīgas FS)
Rīgas FS -1
75.1%
Draw -1
13.5%
Grobiņa +1
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rīgas FS)
Rīgas FS +1
96.7%
Draw +1
2.4%
Grobiņa -1
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rīgas FS)
Rīgas FS +2
99.1%
Draw +2
0.7%
Grobiņa -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rīgas FS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.40
0.93
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.91
0.50
1.33
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.58
0.53
2.00
0.67
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.50
0.86
0.31
0.94
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
2.00
0.33
1.67
0.00
2.20
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.67
0.57
1.00
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.14
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rīgas FS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.70
1.53
0.73
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.00
0.83
0.83
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
0.53
2.00
0.67
1.10
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grobiņa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.64
0.36
0.31
1.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.62
0.67
0.33
0.20
2.40
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.87
0.71
0.29
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home -1 handicap
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 2.5 goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rīgas FS · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žiga Lipušček14%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Panić38%
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Adam Markhiyev25%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Herdi Prenga12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Stefan Panić12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Adam Markhiyev0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Darko Lemajić25%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Rīgas FS's squad is €8m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€11m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Rīgas FS's attack is €5m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€6m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Rīgas FS's midfield is €1m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Rīgas FS's defence is €2m more valuable than Grobiņa's (€3m vs €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Riga
FK Liepaja
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
Tukums