Rīga FS are the clear favourites, their 85% chance of winning reflecting a strong home form and a recent 3-0 triumph over Ogre United. The model picks a home win as the most likely outcome, and the expected total of 4.2 goals signals a high-scoring affair, with the most probable total being 6+ at 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 3-0, with a 10.2% probability, echoing Rīga FS’s 4.0 average goals scored at home against weaker opponents and only 1.33 conceded. Tukums, playing away against a stronger side, averages just 0.67 goals scored and concedes 2.56, underscoring their vulnerability on this pitch. Home win85%, draw 10%, away win 5%. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals99.2%, Home +2 handicap98.7%, Home over 0.5 goals96.6%, Away under 2.5 goals95.6%, Home or Draw95.5%, Home +1 handicap95.5%, Under 7.593.9%, and Over 1.592.4%. These selections capture the dominance of Rīga FS and the low scoring threat from Tukums.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rīgas FS win
84.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
10.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums win
4.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rīgas FS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.37
2.93
1.67
1.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.09
1.91
1.33
2.17
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (19)
3.11
1.05
4.00
1.33
2.30
0.80
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.00
1.31
2.00
0.86
2.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
2.39
1.33
2.22
0.67
2.56
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.42
1.29
1.71
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.1%
Under 1.5
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.9%
Under 2.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
59.0%
Under 3.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
10.1%
2-0
9.1%
4-0
8.4%
3-1
7.9%
2-1
7.2%
4-1
6.6%
5-0
5.6%
1-0
5.0%
Rīgas FS goals ↓
Tukums goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
1
5.0%
4.7%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
2
9.1%
7.2%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
3
10%
7.9%
3.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
8.4%
6.6%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rīgas FS goals (down), columns = Tukums goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
Rīgas FS is 2.05 points better than Tukums in terms of average points per game (2.43 vs 0.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
Rīgas FS is 1.82 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
Rīgas FS is 1.52 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 2.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rīgas FS or Draw
95.1%
Avg Implied -
85%
10%
5%
covers Rīgas FS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS or Tukums
89.5%
Avg Implied -
85%
10%
5%
covers Rīgas FS + Tukums
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tukums
15.3%
Avg Implied -
85%
10%
5%
covers Draw + Tukums
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5
Over
96.4%
Under
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5
Over
84.5%
Under
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5
Over
64.7%
Under
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 3.5
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5
Over
54.5%
Under
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rīgas FS, so a minus line means Rīgas FS give that many goals of a start and Tukums receive them. At -1, Rīgas FS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rīgas FS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rīgas FS)
Rīgas FS -2
48.7%
Draw -2
20.0%
Tukums +2
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rīgas FS)
Rīgas FS -1
68.7%
Draw -1
16.0%
Tukums +1
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rīgas FS)
Rīgas FS +1
95.1%
Draw +1
3.4%
Tukums -1
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rīgas FS)
Rīgas FS +2
98.6%
Draw +2
1.1%
Tukums -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rīgas FS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.40
0.93
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.91
0.50
1.33
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.58
0.53
2.00
0.67
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.56
1.00
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.56
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rīgas FS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.70
1.53
0.73
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.00
0.83
0.83
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
0.53
2.00
0.67
1.10
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.75
1.00
0.21
1.21
vs Stronger (18)
0.39
1.22
0.67
0.89
0.11
1.56
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.92
0.86
1.14
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rīgas FS · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žiga Lipušček14%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Panić38%
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Adam Markhiyev25%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Herdi Prenga12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Stefan Panić12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Adam Markhiyev0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Darko Lemajić25%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
Rīgas FS's squad is €9m more valuable than Tukums's (€11m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
Rīgas FS's attack is €5m more valuable than Tukums's (€6m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
Rīgas FS's midfield is €1m more valuable than Tukums's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
Rīgas FS's defence is €2m more valuable than Tukums's (€3m vs €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Riga
FK Liepaja
Auda
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
Ogre United