The contest between Rilindja 1974 and Dinamo Ferizaj is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total remains two. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.1% chance. Rilindja, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Dinamo, on the road against a weaker opponent, nets 1.57 and concedes 1.43. Home win probability stands at 34%, draw at 30%, and away win at 37%. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 76.0% probability and Over 1.5 with a 72.3% probability. The model’s selection for the match result is an away win. The recent form shows Rilindja coming off a draw, whereas Dinamo is on a two-game winning streak, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Results analysis
Rilindja 1974 entered the match on a streak of one draw and a string of losses, while Dinamo Ferizaj rode a two-game winning run. The final score of 3-4 gave the away side a win, exactly as the model predicted, confirming the model_pick of Away win with a 37% probability. The total goals, 7, far exceeded the expected 2.5 and the most likely 2, showing a high-scoring affair. The model’s suggested picks were mixed: Under 3.5, with a 76% chance, missed, whereas Over 1.5, at 72.3%, hit. The model’s overall call was correct, but the goal tally proved much higher than anticipated.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rilindja 1974 win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj win✓ Hit
36.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rilindja 1974
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.47
1.20
1.13
0.67
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
0.67
1.00
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.36
1.36
1.00
0.73
1.73
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Ferizaj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.00
2.07
0.53
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.82
0.96
2.07
0.50
1.57
1.43
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
Under 1.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.3%
Under 2.5
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.0%
Under 3.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.9%
No
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.6%
0-1
9.3%
1-0
8.8%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.1%
Rilindja 1974 goals ↓
Dinamo Ferizaj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
9.3%
6.7%
2.9%
0.9%
1
8.8%
14%
8.2%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.1%
7.8%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.5%
3.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rilindja 1974 goals (down), columns = Dinamo Ferizaj goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vushtrria
2.21
Feronikeli
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu
0.94
KEK-u
0.64
Prizreni
0.59
Rilindja 1974 is 1.15 points worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 2.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Vushtrria
1.82
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Liria Prizren
1.76
Suhareka
1.76
Feronikeli
1.74
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Vjosa
1.15
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Prizreni
0.82
KEK-u
0.76
Kika
0.74
Rilindja 1974 is 0.79 goals worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Feronikeli
0.65
Vushtrria
0.76
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Vjosa
1.79
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KEK-u
1.91
Prizreni
1.94
Rilindja 1974 is 0.65 goals worse than Dinamo Ferizaj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rilindja 1974
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.72
0.54
0.69
0.17
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.12
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
52% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Ferizaj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
0.31
1.07
0.20
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
0.78
0.33
1.00
0.21
0.54
0.46
Clean sheet %
76% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rilindja 1974
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.80
0.46
0.62
0.42
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.89
0.50
0.60
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
44% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Ferizaj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Ferizaj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.66
0.80
0.33
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (27)
0.89
0.59
0.86
0.29
0.92
0.92
Clean sheet %
52% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Ferizaj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →