Rilindja 1974 vs Ferizaj Result & Analysis

Ferizaj is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 62% chance of success, according to the model. This is largely due to Rilindja 1974's struggles at home, particularly against opponents of similar strength, where they have averaged just 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. Ferizaj, on the other hand, has shown resilience on the road, scoring 1.33 goals and conceding 1.44.

The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a probability of 10.5%. The most likely correct score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.5%.

A home win is highly unlikely, with a 15% chance, while a draw has a 22% chance. The model's selection is the Away win, with the most likely correct score being 1-1, occurring with a probability of 10.5%.

The model suggests a Draw or Away selection, with a probability of 84.6%, an Over 1.5 selection, with a probability of 81.4%, and a Home or Away selection, with a probability of 77.8%.

The draw stunned the pre-match favourite, with Ferizaj’s expected 63 % win chance falling short as the match finished 1-1. Rilindja 1974, coming off a draw, had a modest home form of DLLLL, while Ferizaj, also ending a draw, had DLLLD away. The model’s call of an away win was incorrect. The model’s selections proved accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit, Home under 3.5 goals hit, Under 6.5 hit, and Away +2 handicap hit. Each hit carried a high probability - 98.7 %, 98.4 %, 96.5 % and 94.6 % respectively - demonstrating the model’s strength in predicting low-scoring outcomes even when the favourite faltered.