Trepça'89 are tipped to win, with a 48% chance of taking the match. The model expects 2.8 goals overall, averaging about 2.6 in the most likely total of 2. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.6% probability. Rilindja 1974, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Trepça'89, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. The home win probability sits at 25%, the draw at 27%, and the away win at 48%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 5.5 (93.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.3%), Away +2 handicap (89.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.0%) and Under 4.5 (84.6%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rilindja 1974 win
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 win
49.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rilindja 1974
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.67
1.14
1.21
0.69
2.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
3.00
1.33
2.00
0.50
3.75
vs Similar (22)
0.95
1.23
1.09
1.00
0.82
1.45
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça'89
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.87
2.20
0.73
1.87
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.83
0.83
2.00
1.00
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
2.17
0.89
2.33
0.56
2.00
1.22
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.1%
No
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
8.9%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
6.3%
1-0
6.0%
1-3
5.2%
Rilindja 1974 goals ↓
Trepça'89 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
9.8%
8.9%
4.8%
2.0%
1
6.0%
13%
9.5%
5.2%
2.1%
2
3.9%
6.3%
5.1%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.4%
2.3%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rilindja 1974 goals (down), columns = Trepça'89 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Mitrovica
1.39
Prishtina e Re
1.39
Ferizaj
1.39
KF Lepenci
1.39
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Istogu
0.94
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Rilindja 1974 is 1.12 points worse than Trepça'89 in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Mitrovica
1.40
Prishtina e Re
1.40
Ferizaj
1.40
KF Lepenci
1.40
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Kika
0.74
Rilindja 1974 is 1.12 goals worse than Trepça'89 in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Liria Prizren
0.85
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
Mitrovica
1.41
Prishtina e Re
1.41
Ferizaj
1.41
KF Lepenci
1.41
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Suhareka
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
Rilindja 1974 is 0.82 goals worse than Trepça'89 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rilindja 1974 or Draw
51.0%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Rilindja 1974 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 or Trepça'89
73.0%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Rilindja 1974 + Trepça'89
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Trepça'89
76.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
27%
49%
covers Draw + Trepça'89
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 0.5
Over
65.8%
Under
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 1.5
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 2.5
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 0.5
Over
80.3%
Under
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 1.5
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 2.5
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 3.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rilindja 1974, so a minus line means Rilindja 1974 give that many goals of a start and Trepça'89 receive them. At -1, Rilindja 1974 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rilindja 1974 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rilindja 1974)
Rilindja 1974 -2
2.8%
Draw -2
6.7%
Trepça'89 +2
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Rilindja 1974)
Rilindja 1974 -1
9.5%
Draw -1
14.5%
Trepça'89 +1
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Rilindja 1974)
Rilindja 1974 +1
51.0%
Draw +1
22.5%
Trepça'89 -1
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Rilindja 1974)
Rilindja 1974 +2
73.5%
Draw +2
15.3%
Trepça'89 -2
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rilindja 1974
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.34
0.83
0.47
0.67
0.21
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.43
0.33
0.33
0.50
2.25
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.50
0.55
0.64
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
48% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça'89
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.38
0.67
0.33
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.41
1.22
0.33
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.0%
Under 0.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.2%
Under 1.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.8%
Under 2.5
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
61.7%
Under
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rilindja 1974
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
0.97
0.67
0.80
0.36
1.14
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
1.00
1.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.80
0.55
0.55
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
41% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Trepça'89) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trepça'89
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.43
1.53
0.33
1.13
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.46
1.33
0.67
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (17)
1.53
0.41
1.67
0.11
1.38
0.75
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Rilindja 1974) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.1%
Under 0.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.1%
Under 1.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.5%
Under 2.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rilindja 1974 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
70.1%
Under
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trepça'89 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 0.5 HT goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →