This opponent (Setubal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.13
1.07
0.80
0.67
1.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
1.24
1.33
0.78
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (13)
0.77
1.00
0.67
0.83
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.4%
Under 1.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.3%
Under 2.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.0%
Under 3.5
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.9%
No
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.1%
1-1
13.5%
0-0
12.9%
2-0
11.4%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
0-1
7.6%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
4.6%
Rio Ave goals ↓
Setubal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
7.6%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
1
15%
13%
4.6%
1.1%
0.2%
2
11%
8.5%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
3
5.3%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rio Ave goals (down), columns = Setubal goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Benfica
2.38
Sporting CP
2.29
SC Braga
2.21
Rio Ave
1.50
Maritimo
1.38
Chaves
1.38
Boavista
1.32
Guimaraes
1.26
Tondela
1.12
Portimonense
1.12
Belenenses
1.09
Aves
1.00
Moreirense
0.94
Setubal
0.94
Feirense
0.91
Estoril
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.88
Rio Ave is 0.56 points better than Setubal in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
2.18
Sporting CP
1.85
Portimonense
1.53
Chaves
1.38
Guimaraes
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Rio Ave
1.18
Setubal
1.15
Maritimo
1.06
Aves
1.06
Boavista
1.03
Belenenses
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
0.97
Feirense
0.94
Estoril
0.85
Moreirense
0.85
Rio Ave is 0.03 goals better than Setubal in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Benfica
0.65
Sporting CP
0.71
SC Braga
0.85
Rio Ave
1.24
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.35
Feirense
1.41
Maritimo
1.44
Tondela
1.47
Moreirense
1.47
Aves
1.50
Chaves
1.62
Guimaraes
1.65
Pacos Ferreira
1.74
Portimonense
1.76
Estoril
1.79
Setubal
1.82
Rio Ave is 0.59 goals better than Setubal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rio Ave
For 3.3 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 19.1 · Total 34.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
S
Setubal
For 4.1 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 16.4 · Total 30.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rio Ave
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
9.2
7.0
0.7
0.8
0.6
34.3
35.5
32.7
vs Stronger (12)
7.5
7.5
-
1.3
2.0
0.0
38.0
38.0
-
vs Similar (21)
11.0
-
11.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
37.0
-
37.0
vs Weaker (17)
8.0
11.0
5.0
0.9
0.5
1.2
31.8
33.0
30.5
% over line
43%
50%
33%
12%
12%
12%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
57%
50%
67%
88%
88%
88%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Setubal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
30.3
25.8
36.3
vs Stronger (29)
10.0
11.0
8.0
0.5
0.8
0.2
26.7
20.0
40.0
vs Similar (21)
10.0
9.5
10.5
1.0
0.6
1.3
33.0
31.5
34.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
75%
33%
10%
12%
8%
86%
75%
100%
% under line
43%
25%
67%
90%
88%
92%
14%
25%
0%
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Chaves
12.9
Feirense
11.6
Estoril
11.4
Moreirense
11.4
Benfica
11.1
Guimaraes
11.0
FC Porto
10.9
Maritimo
10.3
Portimonense
10.3
Belenenses
10.1
Setubal
10.0
Tondela
9.9
Pacos Ferreira
9.9
Boavista
9.9
Sporting CP
9.7
SC Braga
9.3
Rio Ave
8.3
Aves
7.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Guimaraes
5.7
Estoril
5.6
SC Braga
5.4
Pacos Ferreira
5.3
Tondela
5.2
Rio Ave
5.0
FC Porto
4.9
Setubal
4.9
Sporting CP
4.9
Belenenses
4.6
Feirense
4.3
Moreirense
4.1
Chaves
4.1
Maritimo
4.0
Benfica
4.0
Aves
3.7
Portimonense
3.7
Boavista
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sporting CP
36.3
Belenenses
36.3
Feirense
34.4
Rio Ave
34.3
Maritimo
32.0
Aves
31.7
Benfica
31.0
Tondela
30.6
Guimaraes
30.4
Setubal
30.3
Estoril
29.4
Chaves
29.2
Moreirense
29.1
FC Porto
28.6
SC Braga
28.3
Portimonense
27.3
Boavista
27.3
Pacos Ferreira
26.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
51.1%
Under 9.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.9%
Under 3.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rio Ave
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.27
0.53
0.07
0.27
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.57
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.18
1.00
0.20
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (12)
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.67
0.13
0.13
0.93
vs Stronger (17)
0.59
0.65
1.00
0.11
0.12
1.25
vs Similar (13)
0.15
0.38
0.17
0.17
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rio Ave
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.73
1.20
0.60
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Setubal) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
S
Setubal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (17)
0.35
0.59
0.33
0.67
0.38
0.50
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.62
0.50
0.67
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Setubal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rio Ave · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andreas Ndoj33%
Nelson Abbey33%
Georgios Liavas25%
Tamás Nikitscher25%
Dario Špikić0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diogo Bezerra25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rio Ave
FC Porto
Benfica
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Chaves
Maritimo
Boavista
Guimaraes
Portimonense
Tondela
Belenenses
Moreirense
Feirense
Pacos Ferreira
Estoril