Rochdale is expected to emerge victorious against Crawley Town, with a narrow margin likely to be the outcome. This storyline is reinforced by Rochdale's recent form, coming off a 0-3 defeat to Newport County, while Crawley Town also suffered a 0-1 loss to Crewe.
Rochdale has a 55% chance of winning, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 20% chance of an away win. The model predicts a home win as the favourite outcome. An average of 2.8 goals is expected in this match.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.9% probability. Rochdale has averaged 1.82 goals at home against similar opponents, conceding 1.09 goals on average. Meanwhile, Crawley Town has scored 0.64 goals away against similar opponents, while conceding 1.36 goals on average.
The model suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection with a 78.7% probability. Other suggested picks include a Home win with 55%, a Draw with 25%, and an Away win with 20%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Rochdale, fell short in a surprising 1-2 defeat to Crawley Town, ending the home side’s recent run of two straight losses. The model had tipped a home win at 55 % probability, but the outcome proved otherwise. The match delivered on every one of the model’s other selections: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.0 %, Under 6.5 at 97.4 %, Under 5.5 at 93.1 %, Home +2 handicap at 92.7 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 91.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 88.7 %, and Under 5.5 cards at 85.3 % - the last of which missed. The final score of 1-2 confirmed Crawley’s win, while the model’s prediction for the home victory was incorrect.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rochdale win✗ Miss
55.5%
Avg Implied 48.0% · @ 1.93
Edge
+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.97
Dafabet
1.96
1xBet
1.96
Pinnacle
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.47
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.75
Pinnacle
3.61
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.56
Dafabet
3.55
Crawley Town win✓ Hit
19.6%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.67
Edge
-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.00
Dafabet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.81
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rochdale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.23
2.00
1.13
1.53
1.33
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
2.25
vs Similar (23)
1.74
1.09
1.77
1.08
1.70
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.23
0.87
1.27
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
1.29
0.87
1.27
0.62
1.31
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.7%
@ 1.24+3.5%
Under 1.5
21.3%
@ 3.74-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Under
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.97
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.0%
@ 1.79+1.8%
Under 2.5
46.0%
@ 1.96-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.86
10Bet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.7%
@ 2.88-0.6%
Under 3.5
68.3%
@ 1.37+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.10
888Sport
3.10
Pinnacle
2.98
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.5%
@ 1.67-0.9%
No
45.5%
@ 2.08+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.70
888Sport
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
No
Betano
2.15
Betfair
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 6.43+5.0%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.93+4.3%
2-0
9.8%@ 9.26+4.9%
1-0
9.6%@ 7.46+3.6%
0-0
6.9%@ 10.18+2.5%
3-1
6.0%@ 13.81+2.8%
3-0
6.0%@ 15.75+3.1%
1-2 ✓
5.5%@ 11.41+1.6%
Rochdale goals ↓
Crawley Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
4.8%
3.0%
1.0%
0.3%
1
9.6%
12%
5.5%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.8%
9.9%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.0%
6.0%
3.0%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.7%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rochdale goals (down), columns = Crawley Town goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.61
Port Vale
1.60
Exeter
1.56
Northampton
1.53
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.87
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.65
Rochdale is 0.00 points better than Crawley Town in terms of average points per game (0.87 vs 0.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Rotherham
1.51
Port Vale
1.50
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.46
Northampton
1.44
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Rochdale is 0.14 goals worse than Crawley Town in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 0.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.10
Port Vale
1.10
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.13
Barnet
1.15
Northampton
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Accrington
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.03
York
2.73
Rochdale is 0.55 goals worse than Crawley Town in terms of goals conceded per game (2.03 vs 1.48).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rochdale
For 3.7 · Against 7.7 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crawley Town
For 3.0 · Against 7.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rochdale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
-
11.3
2.9
2.6
3.2
23.3
-
23.3
vs Stronger (5)
11.3
-
11.3
2.8
2.0
3.0
23.3
-
23.3
vs Similar (41)
-
-
-
2.9
2.7
3.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
3.8
2.0
5.5
-
-
-
% over line
67%
-
67%
44%
38%
50%
67%
-
67%
% under line
33%
-
33%
56%
62%
50%
33%
-
33%
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.1
12.1
12.0
4.2
4.1
4.4
25.3
25.6
25.1
vs Stronger (2)
14.0
-
14.0
3.5
-
3.5
21.0
-
21.0
vs Similar (47)
12.1
12.1
12.0
4.2
4.1
4.3
25.6
25.6
25.7
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
-
9.0
7.0
-
7.0
20.0
-
20.0
% over line
78%
75%
80%
60%
58%
62%
73%
83%
64%
% under line
22%
25%
20%
40%
42%
38%
27%
17%
36%
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.3%
@ 1.73+7.7%
Under 9.5
38.7%
@ 2.00-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.8%
Under 3.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.3%
Under 21.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rochdale or Draw✗ Miss
80.4%
Avg Implied 74.9% · @ 1.24
Edge
+5.6%
55%
25%
20%
covers Rochdale + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Rochdale or Crawley Town✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.5%
55%
25%
20%
covers Rochdale + Crawley Town
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Draw or Crawley Town✓ Hit
44.5%
Avg Implied 51.6% · @ 1.81
Edge
-7.0%
55%
25%
20%
covers Draw + Crawley Town
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Betfair
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rochdale over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.9%
@ 1.18+4.7%
Under
16.1%
@ 4.47-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Rochdale over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
54.6%
@ 1.88+5.1%
Under
45.4%
@ 1.84-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Under
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Superbet
1.87
BetVictor
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
Rochdale over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.7%
@ 3.78+3.2%
Under
72.3%
@ 1.23-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.91
Superbet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Under
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Rochdale over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 8.33+0.1%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.06-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
8.10
Betfair
8.00
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Crawley Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.6%
@ 1.39-3.0%
Under
36.4%
@ 2.79+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Superbet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.98
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
Betano
2.82
BetVictor
2.80
Crawley Town over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
26.9%
@ 2.91-5.1%
Under
73.1%
@ 1.37+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
2.98
10Bet
2.95
888Sport
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Under
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Crawley Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 7.35-4.4%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.07+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.20
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Crawley Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 20.81-2.7%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rochdale, so a minus line means Rochdale give that many goals of a start and Crawley Town receive them. At -1, Rochdale must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rochdale win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rochdale)Actual: Crawley Town
Rochdale -2
15.0%
@ 6.89+2.1%
Draw -2
17.4%
@ 5.34+0.7%
Crawley Town +2
67.6%
@ 1.27-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.60
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.25
Away
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Handicap -1 (Rochdale)Actual: Crawley Town
Rochdale -1
32.4%
@ 3.40+6.1%
Draw -1
23.0%
@ 3.70-1.2%
Crawley Town +1
44.5%
@ 1.81-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Away
Betfair
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Handicap +1 (Rochdale)Actual: Draw
Rochdale +1
80.4%
@ 1.25+8.6%
Draw +1
12.3%
@ 5.38-4.4%
Crawley Town -1
7.3%
@ 7.77-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.20
Away
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Handicap +2 (Rochdale)Actual: Rochdale
Rochdale +2
92.7%
@ 1.06+5.4%
Draw +2
5.3%
@ 11.20-2.9%
Crawley Town -2
2.0%
@ 20.67-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
9.60
Away
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
21.00
Superbet
18.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rochdale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.52
0.92
0.62
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.43
0.27
0.40
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.21
0.46
0.27
0.40
0.15
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Under
Pinnacle
3.24
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.05
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
10Bet
2.65
William Hil
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.62
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Betfair
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
William Hil
6.50
Superbet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.94
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Rochdale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.95
Betano
4.80
Superbet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Rochdale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
10Bet
2.40
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.28
Under
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
8.50
1xBet
8.10
Marathonbet
8.10
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rochdale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.00
0.53
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.57
0.85
0.46
1.00
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Crawley Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crawley Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.54
0.82
0.60
0.87
0.46
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crawley Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crawley Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crawley Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.03
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.7%
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Superbet
1.07
888Sport
1.06
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.05
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.1%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.9%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.21
888Sport
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
80.4%
1.24
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
80.4%
1.25
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+8.6%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.7%
1.24
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.24
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.1%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
+5.1%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
72.9%
1.42
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
+8.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
72.3%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rochdale
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ryan East25%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell25%
Zain Silcott-Duberry25%
Harvey Gilmour0%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
Edward Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Moss50%
Dajaune Brown33%
Kaiden Wilson33%
Harvey Gilmour25%
Sam Sherring25%
Nils Ramming25%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
Edward Francis0%
Zain Silcott-Duberry0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan East25%
Harvey Gilmour0%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
Edward Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Zain Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Hanannt33%
Harvey Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
Edward Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Dajaune Brown0%
Zain Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Crawley Town
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danilo Orsi-Dadomo33%
Pemi Aderoju33%
Gianmarco Di Biase33%
Louie Watson25%
Priestley Farquharson0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Johnny Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Louie Watson50%
Charlie Barker50%
Jude Arthurs50%
Johnny Russell50%
Priestley Farquharson33%
Pemi Aderoju33%
Klaudio Krasniqi25%
Danilo Orsi-Dadomo0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Osman Kamara0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Priestley Farquharson0%
Danilo Orsi-Dadomo0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Louie Watson0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Johnny Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Priestley Farquharson0%
Danilo Orsi-Dadomo0%
Akin Odimayo0%
Louie Watson0%
Klaudio Krasniqi0%
Charlie Barker0%
Jude Arthurs0%
Ade Adeyemo0%
Johnny Russell0%
Osman Kamara0%
Pemi Aderoju0%
Gianmarco Di Biase0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Rochdale and Crawley Town have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Rochdale and Crawley Town have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Rochdale and Crawley Town have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Rochdale and Crawley Town have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barnet
Walsall
York
Colchester
Crewe
Oldham
Bristol Rvs
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Newport County
Cheltenham
Rotherham
Swindon
Exeter
Chesterfield
Shrewsbury
Northampton
Port Vale
Gillingham
Accrington
Salford