Rochdale are the clear favourites, with the model predicting a home win at 56%. The expected total is 2.7 goals, but the most likely total is 2 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1% chance. Rochdale’s home form shows they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against stronger opponents, while Gillingham’s away record against this tier is not specified but they have come off a 1-1 draw. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.4% with a 2% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.9% with a 1% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.7%, and Under 5.5 at 94.1% with a 1% edge. The probabilities for the match outcome are 56% home win, 25% draw, and 19% away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rochdale win
56.1%
Avg Implied 44.7% · @ 2.07
Edge
+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.11
BetVictor
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.32
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.42
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.35
Gillingham win
18.6%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.40
Edge
-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Pinnacle
3.45
10Bet
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rochdale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.27
2.06
1.06
1.43
1.50
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
1.86
2.50
1.50
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.86
1.10
1.92
0.92
1.75
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.87
1.00
2.06
0.71
1.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.20
0.50
4.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
1.80
1.07
1.79
0.82
1.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.7%
@ 1.32+6.3%
Under 1.5
23.3%
@ 3.13-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.35
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.14
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.2%
@ 2.03+5.0%
Under 2.5
48.8%
@ 1.74-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.09
Bet365
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Betano
2.05
Under
Betfair
1.80
SBO
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.1%
@ 3.61+3.4%
Under 3.5
70.9%
@ 1.25-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.71
10Bet
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Under
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
51.8%
@ 1.81+0.8%
No
48.2%
@ 1.89-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.82
No
William Hil
1.95
Unibet
1.91
Betfair
1.90
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 6.04+4.8%
1-0
10.6%@ 6.59+3.9%
2-0
10.4%@ 9.10+5.6%
2-1
9.8%@ 8.09+4.3%
0-0
7.7%@ 8.68+2.6%
3-0
6.2%@ 17.30+3.6%
3-1
5.8%@ 15.56+3.0%
1-2
5.2%@ 10.93+1.1%
Rochdale goals ↓
Gillingham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
5.1%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.2%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.8%
4.6%
1.5%
0.3%
3
6.2%
5.8%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.8%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rochdale goals (down), columns = Gillingham goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Rochdale is 0.27 points worse than Gillingham in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Rochdale is 0.33 goals worse than Gillingham in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Rochdale is 0.44 goals worse than Gillingham in terms of goals conceded per game (2.01 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rochdale
For 3.3 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.3 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gillingham
For 3.5 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 10.5 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rochdale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
6.0
10.5
3.0
2.9
3.0
23.5
23.0
23.8
vs Stronger (7)
10.0
8.0
10.5
3.6
5.0
3.0
24.2
26.0
23.8
vs Similar (40)
4.0
4.0
-
2.9
2.8
3.0
20.0
20.0
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
2.7
2.0
4.0
-
-
-
% over line
33%
0%
50%
44%
42%
46%
67%
50%
75%
% under line
67%
100%
50%
56%
58%
54%
33%
50%
25%
This opponent (Gillingham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.4
10.1
3.9
3.9
3.8
23.7
23.2
24.2
vs Stronger (8)
8.2
6.8
9.8
3.9
4.0
3.8
23.4
23.2
23.5
vs Similar (42)
10.1
10.0
10.2
3.9
3.9
3.9
23.8
23.1
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
44%
54%
56%
56%
56%
61%
56%
67%
% under line
51%
56%
46%
44%
44%
44%
39%
44%
33%
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.8
Swindon
11.4
York
11.2
Walsall
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Chesterfield
10.3
Barnet
10.2
Oldham
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.8
Accrington
9.8
Gillingham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Rochdale
9.0
Colchester
9.0
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Accrington
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cheltenham
3.4
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.1
Crewe
25.1
Colchester
24.9
Salford
24.8
Oldham
24.7
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Gillingham
23.6
Rotherham
23.5
Rochdale
23.5
Newport County
23.2
Walsall
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Tranmere
22.7
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.1
Exeter
22.0
Chesterfield
22.0
Port Vale
21.9
Northampton
21.9
Accrington
21.8
Swindon
20.3
York
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.8%
@ 1.93-6.2%
Under 9.5
58.2%
@ 1.78+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.99
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Under
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.1%
Under 3.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
64.1%
Under 21.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rochdale or Draw
81.4%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.28
Edge
+9.1%
56%
25%
19%
covers Rochdale + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Rochdale or Gillingham
74.6%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.28
Edge
+2.0%
56%
25%
19%
covers Rochdale + Gillingham
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Draw or Gillingham
43.9%
Avg Implied 55.1% · @ 1.69
Edge
-11.2%
56%
25%
19%
covers Draw + Gillingham
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rochdale over/under 0.5
Over
83.2%
@ 1.23+7.9%
Under
16.8%
@ 3.74-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
1xBet
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.79
10Bet
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Rochdale over/under 1.5
Over
53.2%
@ 2.18+10.5%
Under
46.8%
@ 1.62-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Under
Unibet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Rochdale over/under 2.5
Over
26.5%
@ 4.84+7.3%
Under
73.5%
@ 1.15-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Marathonbet
5.05
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
Rochdale over/under 3.5
Over
10.6%
@ 10.88+1.8%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.04-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Gillingham over/under 0.5
Over
61.0%
@ 1.43-3.7%
Under
39.0%
@ 2.63+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.68
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
Gillingham over/under 1.5
Over
24.3%
@ 3.11-5.6%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.32+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Gillingham over/under 2.5
Over
7.0%
@ 8.26-4.3%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.05+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.40
Betfair
8.00
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Gillingham over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
@ 19.00-3.5%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rochdale, so a minus line means Rochdale give that many goals of a start and Gillingham receive them. At -1, Rochdale must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rochdale win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rochdale)
Rochdale -2
14.9%
@ 9.04+5.0%
Draw -2
17.6%
@ 5.90+2.5%
Gillingham +2
67.5%
@ 1.19-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
9.20
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Draw
Marathonbet
6.35
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.40
Away
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Rochdale)
Rochdale -1
32.5%
@ 3.91+9.6%
Draw -1
23.6%
@ 3.65-0.9%
Gillingham +1
43.9%
@ 1.70-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.65
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.50
Away
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (Rochdale)
Rochdale +1
81.4%
@ 1.29+11.7%
Draw +1
11.9%
@ 4.89-6.4%
Gillingham -1
6.6%
@ 7.58-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Away
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Rochdale)
Rochdale +2
93.4%
@ 1.07+6.8%
Draw +2
4.9%
@ 10.50-3.9%
Gillingham -2
1.7%
@ 20.00-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rochdale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
1.06
0.50
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.48
1.08
0.46
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.80
0.38
0.81
0.14
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.40
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.68
0.43
0.64
0.18
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.4%
@ 1.40+3.1%
Under 0.5
30.6%
@ 2.74-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.4%
@ 2.92+1.7%
Under 1.5
66.6%
@ 1.36-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.08
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.95
1xBet
2.95
Under
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.9%
@ 7.70-0.2%
Under 2.5
88.1%
@ 1.05+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.80
Under
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
BetVictor
1.05
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.9%
@ 1.94+1.1%
Under
51.1%
@ 1.77-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathonbet
1.93
10Bet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Under
Unibet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Rochdale over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.2%
@ 6.00-1.2%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.10+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Betano
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Rochdale over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
@ 15.25-2.7%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Gillingham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.5%
@ 2.43-1.6%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.50+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Gillingham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.3%
@ 8.95-2.1%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.04+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
10.00
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Gillingham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rochdale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
1.00
0.56
0.86
0.86
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.62
0.85
0.46
1.00
0.88
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.62
1.25
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
2.00
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
1.12
0.64
1.14
0.64
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.9%
@ 1.25+5.0%
Under 0.5
21.1%
@ 3.55-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.60
William Hil
3.50
Marathonbet
3.44
1xBet
3.44
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.0%
@ 2.23+4.1%
Under 1.5
54.0%
@ 1.60-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Betano
2.22
William Hil
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
Betano
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.6%
@ 5.01+0.1%
Under 2.5
81.4%
@ 1.14-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.3%
@ 1.67+4.0%
Under
40.7%
@ 2.07-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Under
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Rochdale over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.3%
@ 4.36-1.0%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.18+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Rochdale over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
@ 10.12-4.6%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Gillingham over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.2%
@ 2.04-0.1%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.70+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Under
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Gillingham over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
@ 6.41-2.7%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.08+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Gillingham over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
@ 17.38-2.9%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.6%
Under 5.5
94.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+0.6%
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+6.8%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+4.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+2.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
89.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-1.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
1.08
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+2.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.08
BetVictor
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+0.2%
Under 4.5
85.9%
1.06
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
-1.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+1.2%
Under 5.5 cards
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.2%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
1xBet
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
+7.9%
Home or Draw
81.4%
1.28
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+9.1%
Home +1 handicap
81.4%
1.29
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
+11.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-0.1%
Under 11.5 corners
79.9%
1.27
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.21
-
+7.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.18
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
-
+1.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
+5.0%
Over 19.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.7%
1.32
BetVictor
1.35
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+6.3%
Away under 1.5 goals
75.7%
1.32
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+5.6%
Home or Away
74.6%
1.28
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.28
+2.0%
Home under 2.5 goals
73.5%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
-7.3%
Under 4.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.9%
1.25
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.25
-3.4%
Under 10.5 corners
70.1%
1.46
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
-
+7.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rochdale
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Adeeko33%
Luke Hanannt25%
Ryan East25%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell20%
Z. Silcott-Duberry20%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
D. Brown0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Moss50%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling25%
Sam Sherring25%
D. Brown25%
Kaiden Wilson25%
H. Gilmour20%
Nils Ramming20%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
E. Francis0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
B. Adeeko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan East25%
D. Brown25%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe20%
H. Gilmour0%
Luke Hanannt0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Hanannt25%
D. Brown25%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Gillingham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Conor McManus25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Brophy25%
Robbie McKenzie25%
Omar Beckles25%
Will Goodwin25%
Nick Freeman0%
Ronan Hale0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Freeman25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Will Goodwin25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Rochdale and Gillingham have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Rochdale and Gillingham have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Rochdale and Gillingham have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Rochdale and Gillingham have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Salford
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale