Rochdale are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 56% chance of victory, a 25% draw probability and a 19% chance of Shrewsbury winning. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, but the most likely total is two, a 25% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with an 11.9% chance. Rochdale have scored 1.83 goals per game at home against similarly strong opposition while conceding just one, whereas Shrewsbury, on the road, have managed only 0.46 goals and have given up 1.31. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.7% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%), Under 6.5 (97.6% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.9% with a 1% edge) and Under 5.5 (93.7% with a 1% edge). The recent form shows Rochdale after four straight defeats and a 0-1 loss to Colchester, while Shrewsbury come off a win, 1-0 over Salford.
Results analysis
Rochdale’s win over Shrewsbury extended a brief lift from a solitary victory in their last five, while Shrewsbury returned to a losing streak after a 0-3 defeat. The final score of 3-0 confirmed the home win that the model predicted with a 56% probability, and the selection was correct. The model’s 2.8-goal expectation was surpassed as the match produced three goals. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 (99.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%), and Under 5.5 (93.7%). The model’s selections performed strongly across the board.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rochdale win✓ Hit
56.4%
Avg Implied 42.4% · @ 2.19
Edge
+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Dafabet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.22
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.39
Edge
-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Betano
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Shrewsbury win✗ Miss
18.6%
Avg Implied 30.1% · @ 3.09
Edge
-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.11
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rochdale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.27
2.00
1.13
1.40
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
1.86
2.50
1.50
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.10
1.83
1.00
1.67
1.22
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.60
1.00
1.29
0.69
1.88
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
3.25
1.00
0.00
1.67
4.33
vs Similar (26)
0.73
1.35
1.00
1.38
0.46
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.6%
@ 1.27+4.6%
Under 1.5
22.4%
@ 3.45-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.61
Unibet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.6%
@ 1.90+3.1%
Under 2.5
47.4%
@ 1.86-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Betfair
1.90
1xBet
1.87
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.4%
@ 3.21+1.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
@ 1.31-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.32
10Bet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.9%
@ 1.71-1.3%
No
47.1%
@ 2.02+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.70
No
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.04
Unibet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 6.15+4.7%
2-0
10.2%@ 10.04+5.8%
1-0
10.2%@ 7.34+4.2%
2-1
9.9%@ 8.31+4.5%
0-0
7.3%@ 9.73+2.7%
3-0 ✓
6.2%@ 19.26+3.9%
3-1
6.0%@ 15.63+3.1%
1-2
5.2%@ 10.09+0.8%
Rochdale goals ↓
Shrewsbury goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
4.9%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
1
10%
12%
5.2%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
6.2%
6.0%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.8%
2.7%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rochdale goals (down), columns = Shrewsbury goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Rochdale is 0.18 points worse than Shrewsbury in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Rochdale is 0.09 goals worse than Shrewsbury in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Rochdale is 0.51 goals worse than Shrewsbury in terms of goals conceded per game (2.01 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rochdale
For 3.8 · Against 6.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.6 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shrewsbury
For 4.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 11.7 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rochdale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
8.0
10.5
2.9
2.8
3.0
24.2
26.0
23.8
vs Stronger (7)
10.0
8.0
10.5
3.6
5.0
3.0
24.2
26.0
23.8
vs Similar (40)
-
-
-
2.8
2.6
3.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
2.7
2.0
4.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
0%
50%
42%
38%
46%
80%
100%
75%
% under line
60%
100%
50%
58%
62%
54%
20%
0%
25%
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.5
7.8
4.2
3.8
4.4
22.6
22.1
23.1
vs Stronger (7)
7.3
9.3
5.8
3.4
3.0
3.8
22.0
22.7
21.5
vs Similar (42)
8.6
9.5
7.7
4.0
4.0
4.1
22.5
22.0
22.9
vs Weaker (1)
17.0
-
17.0
14.0
-
14.0
33.0
-
33.0
% over line
36%
48%
26%
54%
48%
59%
60%
65%
56%
% under line
64%
52%
74%
46%
52%
41%
40%
35%
44%
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
York
12.0
Crawley Town
11.9
Swindon
11.4
Walsall
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Exeter
10.3
Northampton
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Crewe
9.5
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Rotherham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
York
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.2
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Salford
24.7
Rochdale
24.2
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Grimsby
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.9
Walsall
22.9
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Northampton
22.1
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Swindon
20.4
York
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.3%
@ 1.85-9.1%
Under 9.5
58.7%
@ 1.88+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.8%
Under 3.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
64.7%
Under 21.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rochdale or Draw✓ Hit
81.4%
Avg Implied 70.1% · @ 1.33
Edge
+11.3%
56%
25%
19%
covers Rochdale + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.33
Rochdale or Shrewsbury✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied 72.9% · @ 1.28
Edge
+2.1%
56%
25%
19%
covers Rochdale + Shrewsbury
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Shrewsbury✗ Miss
43.6%
Avg Implied 57.0% · @ 1.64
Edge
-13.4%
56%
25%
19%
covers Draw + Shrewsbury
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.67
SBO
1.67
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rochdale over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.8%
@ 1.22+7.8%
Under
16.2%
@ 3.86-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.94
1xBet
3.84
Rochdale over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.2%
@ 2.14+10.7%
Under
45.8%
@ 1.65-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Under
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.65
Rochdale over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
27.4%
@ 4.62+7.3%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.16-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
Betfair
4.80
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Rochdale over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 10.92+2.5%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.04-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
61.8%
@ 1.35-6.9%
Under
38.2%
@ 2.96+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.05
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
25.1%
@ 2.72-9.1%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.41+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.86
Superbet
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Under
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 6.74-6.4%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.08+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
1xBet
6.65
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Shrewsbury over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 16.67-4.1%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rochdale, so a minus line means Rochdale give that many goals of a start and Shrewsbury receive them. At -1, Rochdale must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rochdale win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rochdale)Actual: Rochdale
Rochdale -2
15.3%
@ 9.12+5.4%
Draw -2
17.7%
@ 6.16+3.1%
Shrewsbury +2
67.0%
@ 1.19-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
8.90
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Away
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Rochdale)Actual: Rochdale
Rochdale -1
33.0%
@ 4.05+11.0%
Draw -1
23.4%
@ 3.78-0.2%
Shrewsbury +1
43.6%
@ 1.64-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Away
Unibet
1.68
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Handicap +1 (Rochdale)Actual: Rochdale
Rochdale +1
81.4%
@ 1.32+14.1%
Draw +1
11.9%
@ 4.67-7.2%
Shrewsbury -1
6.8%
@ 6.52-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.70
Unibet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Handicap +2 (Rochdale)Actual: Rochdale
Rochdale +2
93.2%
@ 1.09+9.1%
Draw +2
5.0%
@ 9.07-5.1%
Shrewsbury -2
1.8%
@ 16.00-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.50
Superbet
8.20
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rochdale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
1.00
0.53
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.48
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.70
0.29
0.43
0.25
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.00
0.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (26)
0.23
0.54
0.31
0.46
0.15
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.5%
@ 1.36-2.7%
Under 0.5
34.5%
@ 2.92+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.2%
@ 2.72-0.8%
Under 1.5
66.8%
@ 1.40+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
Pinnacle
2.86
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Under
Superbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.4%
@ 6.75-4.4%
Under 2.5
90.6%
@ 1.08+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.55
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.9%
@ 1.91-5.6%
Under
57.1%
@ 1.80+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Under
Unibet
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Rochdale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.3%
@ 5.75-6.8%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.10+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.05
Marathonbet
6.05
Betano
5.60
Superbet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Rochdale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 15.50-4.9%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.5%
@ 2.24+0.1%
Under
58.5%
@ 1.58-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.18
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 7.46-0.8%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.06+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Superbet
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 27.00-97.4%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rochdale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
1.00
0.60
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.62
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.71
0.86
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.81
0.69
0.92
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.4%
@ 1.23-1.1%
Under 0.5
25.6%
@ 3.80+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.85
William Hil
3.70
1xBet
3.68
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.5%
@ 2.09-4.9%
Under 1.5
60.5%
@ 1.68+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.69
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.6%
@ 4.46-4.2%
Under 2.5
83.4%
@ 1.17+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.50
William Hil
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.8%
@ 1.67-6.8%
Under
51.2%
@ 2.09+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Under
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Rochdale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 4.28-7.2%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.19+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Rochdale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 10.75-5.8%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.8%
@ 1.89+1.8%
Under
49.2%
@ 1.81-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.3%
@ 5.51+2.4%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.11-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 16.00-2.2%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
-
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
+6.8%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.1%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.8%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.14
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
81.4%
1.33
Betano
1.40
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.33
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.4%
1.32
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
+14.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.3%
1.31
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.6%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.0%
1.28
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.9%
1.41
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.4%
1.23
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
72.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
-7.3%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.5%
1.52
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.54
Marathonbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
+10.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rochdale
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Adeeko33%
Luke Hanannt25%
Ryan East25%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell20%
Z. Silcott-Duberry20%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
D. Brown0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Moss50%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling25%
Sam Sherring25%
D. Brown25%
Kaiden Wilson25%
H. Gilmour20%
Nils Ramming20%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
E. Francis0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
B. Adeeko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan East25%
D. Brown25%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe20%
H. Gilmour0%
Luke Hanannt0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Hanannt25%
D. Brown25%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Shrewsbury
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Davison40%
William Boyle20%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tom Anderson67%
Arkell Jude-Boyd50%
Joe Gbode40%
Jay Turner-Cooke25%
William Boyle20%
G. Lloyd20%
Kevin Berkoe20%
Thomas Sang0%
J. Ruffels0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Will Gray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
William Boyle0%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Davison20%
Isaac Fletcher20%
Joe Gbode20%
William Boyle0%
G. Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Tom Anderson0%
J. Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
William Michael Brook0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Rochdale and Shrewsbury have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Rochdale and Shrewsbury have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Rochdale and Shrewsbury have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Rochdale and Shrewsbury have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Salford
Gillingham
Accrington
Port Vale