Ross County face a tough test at home as Dunfermline arrive on a win, but the model favours an away victory. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a tightly contested match, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 13.9%. Ross County have averaged 1.08 goals for and 1.58 against in similar opposition at home, while Dunfermline average 1.0 for and 1.33 against on the road. Home win probability is 27%, draw 29%, and away win 44%. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 79.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 77.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.0%, Under 3.5 at 76.1% (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 74.8%, and Over 1.5 at 72.2% (hit). The match is poised for a close contest, but the odds lean toward a Dunfermline triumph.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Ross County’s five-game winning streak ended with a 3-2 victory over Dunfermline, a result that surprised the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped an away win with a 44% probability, but that call was wrong. The match saw the model’s suggested picks split: “Under 3.5” at 76.1% missed, while “Over 1.5” at 72.2% hit. Ross County’s home form, noted as a 5-game winning run, proved decisive, and the final score of 3-2 confirmed the home side’s triumph. The model’s prediction of a 2-goal total, with a 27% chance, was also missed as the game produced five goals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ross County win✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.18
Edge
-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.14
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline win✗ Miss
43.9%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.13
Edge
+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ross County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.43
1.47
1.53
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
1.44
1.08
1.58
1.00
1.31
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
0.50
8.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
0.81
0.56
1.21
1.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.93
0.73
0.60
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.2%
Under 1.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.2%
@ 2.09+0.8%
Under 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.67-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.9%
Under 3.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
10.6%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
8.9%
0-2
8.4%
1-0
7.6%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
4.8%
Ross County goals ↓
Dunfermline goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
11%
8.4%
4.0%
1.4%
1
7.6%
14%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
2
4.7%
6.7%
4.8%
2.3%
0.8%
3
1.7%
2.4%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ross County goals (down), columns = Dunfermline goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Alloa Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.15
Partick
1.85
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rvs
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queens Park
1.14
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr
1.08
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Ross County
1.02
Queen of the South
1.00
Airdrie United
0.94
Ross County is 0.52 points worse than Dunfermline in terms of average points per game (1.02 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
ST Johnstone
1.81
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rvs
1.19
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr
1.06
Ayr Utd
1.06
Ross County
1.04
Morton
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Queens Park
0.97
Queen's Park
0.97
Airdrie United
0.92
Ross County is 0.40 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
ST Johnstone
0.71
Partick
0.96
Alloa Athletic
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr
1.31
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queens Park
1.33
Queen's Park
1.33
Airdrie United
1.34
Morton
1.38
Ross County
1.56
Ross County is 0.54 goals worse than Dunfermline in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ross County
For 4.8 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 10.8 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunfermline
For 4.2 · Against 3.0 · Total 7.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 13.8 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ross County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.1
11.4
12.7
1.9
2.0
1.8
20.4
19.6
21.2
vs Stronger (12)
13.9
12.6
15.8
2.6
2.4
2.8
18.8
18.4
19.2
vs Similar (36)
10.9
10.6
11.3
1.8
1.9
1.6
21.4
20.4
22.2
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
72%
69%
75%
20%
20%
20%
41%
31%
50%
% under line
28%
31%
25%
80%
80%
80%
59%
69%
50%
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
7.4
7.7
1.2
1.4
0.9
24.2
23.1
25.3
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
7.5
7.4
7.7
1.3
1.6
1.0
24.2
23.1
25.3
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
15%
14%
17%
16%
20%
12%
69%
57%
83%
% under line
85%
86%
83%
84%
80%
88%
31%
43%
17%
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
11.4
Morton
11.1
Queens Park
10.8
Airdrie United
10.4
ST Johnstone
10.4
Partick
10.2
Dunfermline
10.1
Arbroath
10.1
Ayr
9.9
Stenhousemuir
9.0
Raith Rvs
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Morton
5.0
Ayr Utd
4.8
Ayr
4.3
Partick
4.3
Queens Park
4.1
Raith Rvs
4.1
Stenhousemuir
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Dunfermline
3.7
Airdrie United
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Arbroath
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
22.5
Morton
22.4
Raith Rvs
22.3
Ayr
22.3
ST Johnstone
22.2
Ross County
20.7
Dunfermline
20.6
Airdrie United
20.3
Partick
20.3
Arbroath
20.0
Queens Park
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.3%
Under 9.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.7%
Under 3.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
50.9%
Under 21.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ross County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.67
0.53
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.52
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.44
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.52
0.47
0.47
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ross County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ross County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.80
1.00
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.92
0.58
1.08
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
5.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunfermline) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunfermline
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.38
0.12
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
0.41
0.41
0.27
0.13
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ross County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunfermline over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ross County · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ronan Hale31%
Jordan White16%
Kieran Phillips12%
Akil Wright11%
Noah Chilvers10%
Alex Samuel9%
Joshua Nisbet8%
Michee Efete5%
George Harmon4%
Elijah Campbell4%
Connor Randall3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kacper Łopata0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Nohan Kenneh0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor Randall30%
Elijah Campbell21%
Kacper Łopata20%
Zachary Ashworth20%
Ryan Leak19%
James Brown19%
Victor Loturi18%
Michee Efete15%
Noah Chilvers13%
Nohan Kenneh13%
Akil Wright13%
Ronan Hale11%
George Harmon9%
Jordan White8%
Jonathan Tomkinson8%
Jack Grieves5%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Noah Chilvers17%
Kieran Phillips12%
Zachary Ashworth10%
Jack Grieves9%
George Harmon9%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Aidan Denholm7%
Joshua Nisbet6%
Alex Samuel5%
Kacper Łopata3%
Akil Wright3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Jordan White0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Michee Efete0%
Connor Randall0%
Ronan Hale0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ronan Hale36%
Noah Chilvers10%
Michee Efete10%
Jordan White8%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Akil Wright0%
Connor Randall0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Kacper Łopata0%
George Harmon0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (25)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Ross County's squad is €3m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Ross County's attack is €2m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Ross County and Dunfermline have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Ross County's defence is €1m less valuable than Dunfermline's (€1m vs €2m).
Scotland: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
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ST Johnstone
Partick
Arbroath
Morton
Airdrie United
Raith Rovers
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Ayr Utd
Alloa Athletic
Stenhousemuir
Queen of the South