Ross County’s recent five-game winning streak, highlighted by a 4-0 demolition of East Kilbride, fuels the model’s confidence that the home side will win. The model rates a home victory at 79%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 7%, making a Ross County win the clear favourite. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 for the home team at a 10.1% probability. Ross County averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Queen of the South, on a five-game losing run and averaging only 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded away, looks vulnerable.
The model’s selections include an Away under 3.5 goals at 99%, Home +2 handicap at 97.9%, Under 7.5 at 96.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 94.9%, Home over 0.5 goals at 94.7%, Home or Draw at 93.0%, Home +1 handicap at 93.0%, and Under 6.5 at 91.3%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are mentioned.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ross County win
79.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
13.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South win
7.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ross County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.03
1.85
1.00
1.18
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.32
1.04
1.75
1.00
1.00
1.06
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.91
1.68
0.91
1.45
0.91
1.91
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
2.15
0.43
2.00
1.17
2.33
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.60
2.33
0.33
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
18% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.5%
Under 1.5
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.5%
Under 2.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.8%
Under 3.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.1%
3-0
9.9%
2-1
8.3%
3-1
8.1%
4-0
7.2%
1-0
6.3%
1-1
6.2%
4-1
6.0%
Ross County goals ↓
Queen of the South goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
1.4%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
6.3%
6.2%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
2
10%
8.3%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.9%
8.1%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
7.2%
6.0%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ross County goals (down), columns = Queen of the South goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Ross County is 0.02 points worse than Queen of the South in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Ross County is 0.03 goals worse than Queen of the South in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Ross County is 0.03 goals worse than Queen of the South in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ross County
For 4.6 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queen of the South
For 2.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ross County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
8.8
7.3
0.9
1.0
0.8
21.9
19.6
24.2
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
8.0
8.8
7.3
1.0
1.1
0.9
21.9
19.6
24.2
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
27%
40%
17%
16%
22%
11%
80%
80%
80%
% under line
73%
60%
83%
84%
78%
89%
20%
20%
20%
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
6.0
-
6.0
0.1
0.0
0.3
20.0
-
20.0
vs Stronger (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
6.0
-
6.0
0.8
0.0
1.0
20.0
-
20.0
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
100%
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.9%
Under 9.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.9%
Under 3.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
51.4%
Under 21.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ross County or Draw
93.0%
Avg Implied -
79%
14%
7%
covers Ross County + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ross County or Queen of the South
86.4%
Avg Implied -
79%
14%
7%
covers Ross County + Queen of the South
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Queen of the South
20.5%
Avg Implied -
79%
14%
7%
covers Draw + Queen of the South
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ross County over/under 0.5
Over
94.7%
Under
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5
Over
79.1%
Under
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5
Over
56.2%
Under
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 3.5
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ross County, so a minus line means Ross County give that many goals of a start and Queen of the South receive them. At -1, Ross County must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ross County win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ross County)
Ross County -2
39.8%
Draw -2
21.0%
Queen of the South +2
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ross County)
Ross County -1
60.8%
Draw -1
18.6%
Queen of the South +1
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ross County)
Ross County +1
93.0%
Draw +1
4.8%
Queen of the South -1
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ross County)
Ross County +2
97.9%
Draw +2
1.7%
Queen of the South -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ross County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
1.08
0.85
0.41
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.64
1.00
0.83
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.05
0.36
0.82
0.64
1.27
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.31
0.29
1.14
0.83
1.50
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ross County over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ross County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.77
0.15
0.76
0.59
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.68
0.39
0.75
0.17
0.62
0.56
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of the South) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Queen of the South
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.41
0.64
0.55
0.64
0.27
0.64
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.85
0.14
0.86
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
1.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
55% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ross County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ross County over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ross County over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of the South over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ross County · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ronan Hale31%
Jordan White16%
Kieran Phillips12%
Akil Wright11%
Noah Chilvers10%
Alex Samuel9%
Joshua Nisbet8%
Michee Efete5%
George Harmon4%
Elijah Campbell4%
Connor Randall3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kacper Łopata0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Nohan Kenneh0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor Randall30%
Elijah Campbell21%
Kacper Łopata20%
Zachary Ashworth20%
Ryan Leak19%
James Brown19%
Victor Loturi18%
Michee Efete15%
Noah Chilvers13%
Nohan Kenneh13%
Akil Wright13%
Ronan Hale11%
George Harmon9%
Jordan White8%
Jonathan Tomkinson8%
Jack Grieves5%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Noah Chilvers17%
Kieran Phillips12%
Zachary Ashworth10%
Jack Grieves9%
George Harmon9%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Aidan Denholm7%
Joshua Nisbet6%
Alex Samuel5%
Kacper Łopata3%
Akil Wright3%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Jordan White0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Michee Efete0%
Connor Randall0%
Ronan Hale0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ronan Hale36%
Noah Chilvers10%
Michee Efete10%
Jordan White8%
Nohan Kenneh7%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Alex Samuel0%
William Nightingale0%
Eamonn Brophy0%
Jack Hamilton0%
Ross Laidlaw0%
Charles Telfer0%
Scott Allardice0%
James Brown0%
Victor Loturi0%
Akil Wright0%
Connor Randall0%
Ryan Leak0%
Josh Reid0%
Kieran Phillips0%
Kacper Łopata0%
George Harmon0%
Jonathan Tomkinson0%
Zachary Ashworth0%
Elijah Campbell0%
Aidan Denholm0%
Jordan Amissah0%
Jack Grieves0%
Dylan Smith0%
George Robesten0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (11)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Ross County and Queen of the South have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Ross County and Queen of the South have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Ross County and Queen of the South have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (7)
€1m
QOT (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Ross County and Queen of the South have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamilton Academical
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Airdrie United