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Rudar vs Bilje Result & Analysis

Date: 25/03/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 0-0
Rudar
Rudar
Vs
40%
27%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bilje
Bilje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The match between Rudar and Bilje is a tight affair, with no clear favourite. Rudar’s recent win over Bilje suggests a slight edge, yet Bilje’s resilience after two defeats keeps the contest balanced. The model favours a home win, with a 40% probability, while a draw sits at 27% and an away victory at 32%. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13% chance. Rudar, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, whereas Bilje, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals with a 78.5% probability. The model’s selection list is limited to this single pick. The probabilities for the match outcomes are 40% for a home win, 27% for a draw, and 32% for an away win.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Rudar, failed to deliver, leaving the game a 0-0 draw that surprised everyone. The model had tipped a home win with a 40% probability, but the result proved wrong. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.5% chance, which missed as the scoreline stayed flat. Rudar entered the match on a winning streak, their last five results being WLWLL, and had recently beaten Bilje 4-1 at home. Bilje, after two straight defeats, finished the night without scoring, keeping the scoreline unchanged. The model’s predictions did not materialise.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Rudar win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bilje win✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

RudarRudar

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W10W21W13L22D35L00D22D21W01LH·FUŽ16/10H·KRŠ22/10H·BIS29/10A·ILI06/11H·BEL13/11A·ROG19/11H·DEK26/11A·ALU03/03H·DOB11/03A·BRI18/03
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.621.181.181.702.10
vs Stronger (8)1.001.880.601.401.672.67
vs Similar (13)1.691.461.671.001.711.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %19% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BiljeBilje

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L04L01L22D10W22D21W12L10W10WH·ROG16/10A·ALU21/10H·BRI29/10A·NAF04/11A·TRI13/11H·FUŽ20/11A·BIS27/11H·BEL04/03A·DEK11/03H·DOB18/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.951.551.911.602.00
vs Stronger (8)1.381.621.001.251.752.00
vs Similar (13)1.692.151.862.291.502.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %19% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.7%
0-0 ✓
7.1%
0-1
6.7%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
5.9%
Rudar goals ↓
Bilje goals →
01234
07.1%6.7%5.2%2.3%0.8%
17.7%13%7.8%3.5%1.1%
26.7%8.8%5.9%2.6%0.9%
33.3%4.4%2.9%1.3%0.4%
41.2%1.6%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rudar goals (down), columns = Bilje goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Rudar is 0.17 points worse than Bilje in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Rudar is 0.03 goals better than Bilje in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Rudar is 0.07 goals better than Bilje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.77).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

RudarRudar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D12L01L32W00D11D20W01LH·FUŽ16/10H·KRŠ22/10H·BIS29/10A·ILI06/11H·BEL13/11A·ROG19/11H·DEK26/11A·ALU03/03H·DOB11/03A·BRI18/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.760.710.640.640.900.80
vs Stronger (8)0.881.000.600.801.331.33
vs Similar (13)0.690.540.670.500.710.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BiljeBilje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D22D00D01L01L02L00D10WH·ROG16/10A·ALU21/10H·BRI29/10A·NAF04/11A·TRI13/11H·FUŽ20/11A·BIS27/11H·BEL04/03A·DEK11/03H·DOB18/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.900.550.820.301.00
vs Stronger (8)0.380.750.000.750.750.75
vs Similar (13)0.461.000.860.860.001.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

RudarRudar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W10W01L21W03L00D11D01L00DH·FUŽ16/10H·KRŠ22/10H·BIS29/10A·ILI06/11H·BEL13/11A·ROG19/11H·DEK26/11A·ALU03/03H·DOB11/03A·BRI18/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.900.550.550.801.30
vs Stronger (8)0.120.880.000.600.331.33
vs Similar (13)1.000.921.000.501.001.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BiljeBilje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L01L00D10W21W20W10W10W00DH·ROG16/10A·ALU21/10H·BRI29/10A·NAF04/11A·TRI13/11H·FUŽ20/11A·BIS27/11H·BEL04/03A·DEK11/03H·DOB18/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.141.051.001.091.301.00
vs Stronger (8)1.000.881.000.501.001.25
vs Similar (13)1.231.151.001.431.500.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Rudar and Bilje have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Rudar and Bilje have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Rudar and Bilje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Rudar and Bilje have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
RUD wins
0
Draws
1
BIL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Rudar vs Bilje · H/A from RUD
DateH/AGameScore
09/09/22ABilje Vs RUD4-3

RudarRudar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/23ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs RUD1-0
11/03/23HRUD Vs Dob2-1
03/03/23AAluminij Vs RUD2-2
26/11/22HRUD Vs Dekani0-0
19/11/22ARogaška Vs RUD5-3
13/11/22HRUD Vs Beltinci2-2
06/11/22AIlirija Vs RUD3-1
29/10/22HRUD Vs Bistrica2-1
22/10/22HRUD Vs Krško1-0
16/10/22HRUD Vs Fužinar3-2

BiljeBilje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/23HBIL Vs Dob1-0
11/03/23ADekani Vs BIL0-1
04/03/23HBIL Vs Beltinci1-2
27/11/22ABistrica Vs BIL1-2
20/11/22HBIL Vs Fužinar2-2
13/11/22ATriglav Vs BIL0-1
04/11/22ANafta Vs BIL2-2
29/10/22HBIL Vs Brinje-Grosuplje0-1
21/10/22AAluminij Vs BIL4-0
16/10/22HBIL Vs Rogaška1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Rudar
Rudar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL1.19
HomeWWDDW1.64
AwayDLLDL0.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%45%10%
AVG goals3.052.363.80
Over 1.5 %81%73%90%
Over 2.5 %52%45%60%
Over 3.5 %38%18%60%
Scored1.431.181.70
Conceded1.621.182.10
BTTS57%45%70%
Clean Sheet19%27%10%
Corners---
Cards---
Bilje
Bilje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.43
HomeLLDLW1.27
AwayLDWWW1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %43%36%50%
AVG goals3.523.453.60
Over 1.5 %81%82%80%
Over 2.5 %71%64%80%
Over 3.5 %43%36%50%
Scored1.571.551.60
Conceded1.951.912.00
BTTS67%64%70%
Clean Sheet19%18%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RogaškaRogaška3068
70%
2.3
5223+29
2.5
67%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
2AluminijAluminij3064
63%
2.1
5823+35
2.7
70%
50%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.8
-
3IlirijaIlirija3054
53%
1.8
5530+25
2.8
77%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
4KrkaKrka3053
47%
1.8
4628+18
2.5
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.50.9
-
5BeltinciBeltinci3044
40%
1.5
4745+2
3.1
90%
60%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.5
-
6NaftaNafta3041
37%
1.4
5043+7
3.1
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.4
-
7PrimorjePrimorje3041
33%
1.4
4240+2
2.7
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.3
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3038
37%
1.3
3037-7
2.2
73%
23%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.2
-
9BistricaBistrica3037
30%
1.2
3940-1
2.6
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
-
10BiljeBilje3037
33%
1.2
4053-13
3.1
77%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.8
-
11DekaniDekani3035
23%
1.2
2729-2
1.9
53%
27%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
12TriglavTriglav3035
33%
1.2
3352-19
2.8
80%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.7
-
13RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
4151-10
3.1
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.7
-
14FužinarFužinar3031
27%
1.0
3956-17
3.2
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
15KrškoKrško3024
20%
0.8
3659-23
3.2
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
16DobDob3021
13%
0.7
3763-26
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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