The expected storyline here is Rustavi's recent form, having won two games in a row, including a 3-0 thrashing of Dinamo Tbilisi. However, their overall performance at home has been solid, scoring 2 goals on average and conceding just 0.57.
Rustavi are the favourites to win, with a 43% chance of taking all three points, followed by a 31% draw probability and a 27% chance of Gagra emerging victorious. The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome.
A relatively low-scoring match is expected, with an average of 2.3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, which has a 14.3% probability.
Gagra's away form, however, has been less impressive, scoring 1.58 goals on average and conceding 1.75.
The model's selection is the under 3.5 goals, which has an 80% chance of occurring. The suggested picks also include the home win (43%), the draw (31%), and the away win (27%). Additionally, the model suggests the under 3.5 goals (80%), and the home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 27%.
Rustavi continued their three-game winning streak, beating Gagra 3-0 to confirm the model’s prediction of a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 42 % probability and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.7 %, Under 6.5 at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.1 %, and Under 5.5 at 97.0 %. Each probability is expressed as a percentage, and every pick’s outcome is noted as hit. The game finished with a decisive 3-0 scoreline, matching the model’s expected result.
Rustavi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 0.70 | 1.93 | 0.53 | 1.87 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.86 | 0.75 | 1.86 | 0.57 | 1.86 | 0.93 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.50 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Gagra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.20 | 1.47 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 1.47 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 1.56 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.47 | 1.20 | 1.56 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Gagra goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 12% | 14% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Rustavi
Gagra
Rustavi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (44) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Gagra| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (28) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 0% | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | 100% | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Rustavi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.23 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.87 | 0.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.93 | 0.25 | 0.93 | 0.21 | 0.93 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+48pp vs league) | |||||
Gagra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Rustavi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.93 | 0.50 | 0.93 | 0.36 | 0.93 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
Gagra| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 99.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 98.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +7.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 98.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 98.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 97.0% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +4.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 9.5 corners | 96.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 95.8% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +9.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 8.5 corners | 93.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 93.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 92.7% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +2.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 92.0% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 91.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 91.6% | 1.05 | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | +5.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 90.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 89.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 88.8% | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.05 | - | - | +1.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 85.9% | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | +9.4% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 81.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away +2 handicap | 80.5% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +11.3% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1.26 | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | +7.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 77.8% | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.10 | - | - | - | -4.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 77.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 3.5 cards | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 73.3% | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | -1.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | -6.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 72.3% | 1.16 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | -6.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +1 handicap | 72.3% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +2.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Rustavi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/06/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 17/06/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 06/12/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 0-4 | |
| 25/11/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 21/11/25 | A | 2-1 |
Gagra| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 24/06/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 18/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/06/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/12/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/11/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 21/11/25 | A | 2-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Rustavi | 8 | 19 | 75% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 2.4 | 75% | 62% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 8 | 16 | 62% | 2.0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 4 | Samgurali | 8 | 14 | 50% | 1.8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 4.0 | 88% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | - |
| 5 | Gagra | 8 | 13 | 38% | 1.6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 2.4 | 88% | 50% | 12% | 5.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 6 | Dila | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 | Saburtalo | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 5.0 | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 55% |
| 8 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 8 | 5 | 12% | 0.6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 3.1 | 75% | 62% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | - |
| 9 | Meshakhte | 8 | 4 | 12% | 0.5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 2.9 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 10 | Spaeri | 8 | 3 | 0% | 0.4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3.0 | 88% | 62% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |