This matchup between Rustavi and Torpedo Kutaisi in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga is finely balanced, with the recent form of the teams telling a compelling story. Rustavi is coming off a win, having beaten Torpedo Kutaisi 1-0, while Torpedo Kutaisi suffered a defeat to Rustavi in their last encounter.
The model predicts a home win for Rustavi, with a 40% chance of a home victory, 28% draw, and 32% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 13.4%.
Rustavi has a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding 0.83 against similar opponents. Torpedo Kutaisi, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 1.27 goals and conceding 1.27 against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 76.4% chance of hitting, and Under 3.5 with a 71.3% chance of hitting. The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 32%.
The home team Rustavi secured a narrow 1-0 win over Torpedo Kutaisi, extending their winning streak. The model correctly predicted a home win, which was the pre-match favourite with a 40% probability. The model's selection, Home win, was correct.
The model's Over 1.5 selection, with a 76.4% probability, unfortunately missed, while the Under 3.5 selection, with a 71.3% probability, hit. The most likely total goals was 2, with a 26% probability, but the actual score was 1-0, resulting in a total of 1 goal.
Rustavi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 0.77 | 1.93 | 0.53 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.78 | 0.85 | 1.92 | 0.62 | 1.64 | 1.07 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Torpedo Kutaisi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.83 | 1.40 | 2.06 | 1.50 | 1.57 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.47 | 1.59 | 1.89 | 1.89 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 2.31 | 1.15 | 2.29 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Torpedo Kutaisi goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.4% | 13% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Rustavi
Torpedo Kutaisi
Rustavi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (44) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Torpedo Kutaisi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (23) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Rustavi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.23 | 0.93 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 0.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.81 | 0.26 | 0.92 | 0.23 | 0.71 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+48pp vs league) | |||||
Torpedo Kutaisi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.67 | 1.06 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.94 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.92 | 0.62 | 1.14 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Rustavi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.96 | 0.59 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.93 | 0.79 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Torpedo Kutaisi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.53 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.12 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.38 | 0.54 | 1.14 | 0.43 | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 corners | 99.5% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +18.2% | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 76.4% | 1.27 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +4.4% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 3.5 cards | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 71.3% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.28 | +0.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Rustavi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 17/06/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 06/12/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 0-4 | |
| 25/11/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 21/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 5-1 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 1-2 |
Torpedo Kutaisi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 17/06/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/12/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 26/11/25 | H | 4-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 2-4 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 5-1 | |
| 03/11/25 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Rustavi | 8 | 19 | 75% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 2.4 | 75% | 62% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 8 | 16 | 62% | 2.0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 4 | Samgurali | 8 | 14 | 50% | 1.8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 4.0 | 88% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | - |
| 5 | Gagra | 8 | 13 | 38% | 1.6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 2.4 | 88% | 50% | 12% | 5.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 6 | Dila | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 | Saburtalo | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 5.0 | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 55% |
| 8 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 8 | 5 | 12% | 0.6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 3.1 | 75% | 62% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | - |
| 9 | Meshakhte | 8 | 4 | 12% | 0.5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 2.9 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 10 | Spaeri | 8 | 3 | 0% | 0.4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3.0 | 88% | 62% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |