This match is likely to be a closely contested draw, with Dunajska Streda coming off a 0-6 defeat to Twente and Ružomberok after two straight defeats. However, the model predicts an away win for Dunajska Streda, with a 44% probability of victory. The overall shape of the match is expected to be low-scoring, with an average of 2.4 goals expected. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% probability.
Ružomberok has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding 1.33 goals against stronger opponents. In contrast, Dunajska Streda has scored 1.57 goals and conceded 0.93 goals when playing away against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 44% probability. The model's other selections include Over 21.5 fouls (81.7%), Under 3.5 (77.2%), and Over 1.5 (71.1%). The home win percentage is 27%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 44%.
Results analysis
A stunning upset in Slovakia's Super Liga as Ružomberok held Dunajska Streda to a 1-1 draw, extending their run of draws to three. The pre-match favourite, Dunajska Streda, failed to deliver, with their predicted probability of winning standing at 44%. The model's selection, Dunajska Streda's away win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, with the actual result being a draw. The model's suggested picks all came to fruition, with 'Under 3.5' hitting at 77.2% and 'Over 1.5' hitting at 71.1%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ružomberok win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dunajska Streda win✗ Miss
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ružomberok
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.40
1.27
1.27
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
1.60
1.67
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.33
1.42
1.17
1.08
1.50
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunajska Streda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunajska Streda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
1.92
1.15
1.41
1.24
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
2.00
1.00
2.25
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (22)
1.91
0.91
2.33
0.67
1.62
1.08
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ružomberok) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.9%
Under 2.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.0%
0-1
11.0%
0-0
10.1%
1-2
8.9%
0-2
8.6%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
4.7%
Ružomberok goals ↓
Dunajska Streda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
11%
8.6%
4.0%
1.4%
1
7.8%
14%
8.9%
4.1%
1.4%
2
4.7%
6.6%
4.6%
2.1%
0.7%
3
1.6%
2.3%
1.6%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ružomberok goals (down), columns = Dunajska Streda goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Slovan Bratislava
2.12
Dunajska Streda
1.81
Spartak Trnava
1.75
Žilina
1.62
Zemplín Michalovce
1.38
FK Košice
1.34
Podbrezová
1.31
AS Trencin
1.31
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.18
Skalica
1.09
Ružomberok
1.09
Komárno
1.00
Ružomberok is 0.72 points worse than Dunajska Streda in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slovan Bratislava
1.94
Žilina
1.84
Podbrezová
1.72
Dunajska Streda
1.72
FK Košice
1.59
Spartak Trnava
1.59
Zemplín Michalovce
1.38
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.19
Skalica
1.06
Komárno
1.06
AS Trencin
1.06
Ružomberok
1.06
Ružomberok is 0.66 goals worse than Dunajska Streda in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.72).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunajska Streda
1.06
Spartak Trnava
1.16
Slovan Bratislava
1.16
Žilina
1.28
Skalica
1.41
Komárno
1.44
Ružomberok
1.56
Podbrezová
1.59
AS Trencin
1.59
Zemplín Michalovce
1.62
Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.68
FK Košice
1.72
Ružomberok is 0.50 goals worse than Dunajska Streda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Slovan Bratislava
59%
Spartak Trnava
56%
Dunajska Streda
53%
Zemplín Michalovce
52%
Podbrezová
51%
AS Trencin
51%
Žilina
50%
FK Košice
49%
Komárno
48%
Ružomberok
43%
Skalica
42%
Ružomberok is 10.7 percentage points worse than Dunajska Streda in terms of average possession (43% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ružomberok
For 5.5 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 12.2 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dunajska Streda
For 4.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 13.7 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ružomberok
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.7
11.1
2.3
2.6
2.0
26.1
26.2
25.9
vs Stronger (6)
9.6
8.5
10.3
4.7
3.3
6.0
24.6
21.0
27.0
vs Similar (42)
10.6
9.9
11.3
2.1
2.5
1.7
26.4
27.2
25.6
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
59%
38%
79%
26%
33%
19%
78%
85%
71%
% under line
41%
62%
21%
74%
67%
81%
22%
15%
29%
This opponent (Dunajska Streda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunajska Streda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.2
9.6
2.8
3.0
2.6
25.3
25.1
25.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
8.7
9.6
7.5
3.6
5.2
2.0
26.1
28.2
23.5
vs Weaker (38)
10.5
10.5
10.4
2.6
2.3
2.8
25.0
23.6
26.3
% over line
45%
56%
33%
36%
32%
40%
68%
62%
73%
% under line
55%
44%
67%
64%
68%
60%
32%
38%
27%
This opponent (Ružomberok) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AS Trencin
11.2
Podbrezová
10.6
FK Košice
10.5
Ružomberok
10.2
Dukla Banská Bystrica
10.2
Slovan Bratislava
10.2
Zemplín Michalovce
10.0
Dunajska Streda
9.9
Komárno
9.8
Skalica
9.7
Žilina
9.6
Spartak Trnava
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Trnava
5.1
Slovan Bratislava
4.9
Dunajska Streda
4.9
Skalica
4.8
Podbrezová
4.7
AS Trencin
4.7
Komárno
4.5
Zemplín Michalovce
4.4
Ružomberok
4.4
FK Košice
4.2
Žilina
3.9
Dukla Banská Bystrica
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Spartak Trnava
28.1
Skalica
27.2
Komárno
27.0
Zemplín Michalovce
26.8
Podbrezová
26.5
Žilina
26.3
Dunajska Streda
26.2
Ružomberok
25.9
AS Trencin
25.5
Slovan Bratislava
25.4
FK Košice
24.0
Dukla Banská Bystrica
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.7%
Under 9.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.1%
Under 3.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.7%
Under 21.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ružomberok
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.80
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunajska Streda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunajska Streda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.92
0.69
0.82
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.25
1.12
0.25
1.50
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (22)
1.09
0.32
1.22
0.33
1.00
0.31
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ružomberok) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ružomberok over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ružomberok over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ružomberok over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunajska Streda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunajska Streda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunajska Streda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ružomberok
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.47
0.60
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
1.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.75
0.50
0.42
0.83
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dunajska Streda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dunajska Streda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
1.00
0.46
0.59
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.88
0.75
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.82
0.59
1.11
0.33
0.62
0.77
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ružomberok) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ružomberok over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ružomberok over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ružomberok over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunajska Streda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunajska Streda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dunajska Streda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (29)
€44m
DS (35)
€26m
ŽIL (38)
€18m
AT (38)
€8m
POD (32)
€8m
ST (28)
€7m
FK (33)
€7m
RUŽ (33)
€7m
ZM (33)
€6m
SKA (31)
€4m
KOM (28)
€3m
DBB (24)
€3m
Ružomberok's squad is €20m less valuable than Dunajska Streda's (€7m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (13)
€26m
DS (10)
€12m
ŽIL (15)
€5m
POD (13)
€3m
AT (17)
€3m
ST (10)
€3m
ZM (11)
€2m
FK (8)
€2m
RUŽ (11)
€1m
KOM (10)
€1m
DBB (7)
€1m
SKA (9)
€1m
Ružomberok's attack is €10m less valuable than Dunajska Streda's (€1m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DS (12)
€7m
SB (5)
€6m
ŽIL (4)
€4m
POD (7)
€2m
AT (6)
€2m
FK (9)
€2m
ZM (9)
€2m
ST (6)
€1m
RUŽ (5)
€1m
KOM (7)
€1m
SKA (7)
€1m
DBB (6)
€1m
Ružomberok's midfield is €6m less valuable than Dunajska Streda's (€1m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (11)
€12m
ŽIL (19)
€9m
DS (13)
€7m
RUŽ (17)
€4m
AT (15)
€4m
FK (16)
€3m
POD (12)
€3m
ST (12)
€3m
SKA (15)
€2m
ZM (13)
€2m
KOM (11)
€1m
DBB (11)
€1m
Ružomberok's defence is €4m less valuable than Dunajska Streda's (€4m vs €7m).
Slovakia: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Spartak Trnava
Slovan Bratislava
Žilina
Podbrezová
Skalica
FK Košice
Zemplín Michalovce
Dukla Banská Bystrica
AS Trencin
Komárno