Sabah FA is the clear favourite to win against Kapaz, with a predicted 75% chance of success. The model rates them highly due to their strong home form against weaker opponents, having averaged 2.44 goals scored and just 0.56 conceded at home. Meanwhile, Kapaz's away form is concerning, having averaged 0.69 goals scored and 1.85 conceded when playing stronger opponents.
The predicted score is a 2-0home win for Sabah FA, with a probability of 13.5%. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with 2 being the most likely total.
In terms of specific match results, Sabah FA has a 75% chance of winning, while the draw is 17% likely, and a Kapaz win is 8% likely.
The model's suggested picks include an Over 1.5 goals selection with an 81.5% chance of occurrence, and a Home win selection with a 74.9% chance.
Sabah FA's home win percentage is 75%, the draw percentage is 17%, and the away win percentage is 8%.
Results analysis
The win extends Sabah FA's 2-game winning run, which began with a 2-0 victory over Kapaz last time out. The final score was indeed 2-0, as the home side claimed a convincing home win, the actual result. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 75%. The model's call was vindicated, as Sabah FA's recent form note reads: "on a 2-game winning run". The model's other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit, with a probability of 81.5%, and Home win also came in, with a probability of 74.9%.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sabah FA win✓ Hit
74.9%
Avg Implied 76.5% · @ 1.18
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
William Hil
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Draw✗ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied 16.0% · @ 5.65
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Pinnacle
5.87
Dafabet
5.80
Kapaz win✗ Miss
7.8%
Avg Implied 7.5% · @ 11.99
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
15.00
1xBet
13.40
888Sport
13.00
William Hil
13.00
BetVictor
13.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sabah FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
0.93
2.40
0.80
2.40
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
2.33
1.20
2.38
1.00
2.29
1.43
vs Weaker (15)
2.47
0.67
2.43
0.57
2.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kapaz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.93
1.50
vs Stronger (17)
0.59
1.59
0.50
1.75
0.67
1.44
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.38
1.50
1.25
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.5%
@ 1.14-0.2%
Under 1.5
18.5%
@ 5.05+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.14
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
5.40
888Sport
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.6%
@ 1.47-3.4%
Under 2.5
41.4%
@ 2.41+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.50
888Sport
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.45
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.2%
@ 2.20-5.5%
Under 3.5
63.8%
@ 1.58+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.25
888Sport
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Under
Betfair
1.62
Unibet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.8%
@ 2.10+1.1%
No
55.2%
@ 1.63-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.25
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
No
Betfair
1.73
888Sport
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
13.5%@ 5.66+5.9%
3-0
10.7%@ 6.51+4.1%
1-0
10.6%@ 7.33+4.7%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.44+3.9%
1-1
8.3%@ 10.69+4.3%
3-1
7.1%@ 9.82+2.7%
4-0
6.4%@ 9.30+1.8%
0-0
5.5%@ 15.69+2.8%
Sabah FA goals ↓
Kapaz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
2.4%
1.1%
0.2%
0.0%
1
11%
8.3%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
9.0%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
3
11%
7.1%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
6.4%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sabah FA goals (down), columns = Kapaz goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Sabah FA is 1.55 points better than Kapaz in terms of average points per game (2.36 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Sabah FA is 1.52 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals scored per game (2.27 vs 0.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Sabah FA is 1.09 goals better than Kapaz in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 1.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sabah FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.30
0.87
0.33
1.07
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.60
0.62
0.62
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.00
1.14
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kapaz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.62
0.69
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (17)
0.29
0.71
0.38
0.88
0.22
0.56
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.62
0.88
0.50
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sabah FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.63
1.53
0.47
1.33
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.47
0.60
1.75
0.38
1.14
0.86
vs Weaker (15)
1.40
0.67
1.29
0.57
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kapaz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.38
0.81
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (17)
0.29
0.88
0.12
0.88
0.44
0.89
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.77
0.62
0.75
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.14
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Home win
74.9%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
William Hil
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Unibet
1.19
-1.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sabah FA
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Sabah FA's squad is €12m more valuable than Kapaz's (€17m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Sabah FA's attack is €4m more valuable than Kapaz's (€5m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Sabah FA's midfield is €4m more valuable than Kapaz's (€5m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Sabah FA's defence is €4m more valuable than Kapaz's (€7m vs €3m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →