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Sabah FA vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 20/08/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 1-1
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Vs
56%
27%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sabah FA win✗ Miss
55.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W30W40W00D01L20W21W50W20W02LH·ŞAM29/04A·KAP05/05A·SUM17/05H·ZIR22/05A·NEF28/05A·RĪG26/07H·RĪG03/08H·QAB06/08H·FK 10/08A·FK 17/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.602.000.532.000.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.180.551.330.331.000.80
vs Weaker (19)2.470.632.440.672.500.60
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L11D31W10W22D20W01L13L11D12LA·TUR07/05H·ŞAM14/05A·KAP21/05H·SAB28/05A·ZEL27/07H·ZEL03/08A·KAP06/08H·BEŞ10/08H·SƏB14/08A·BEŞ17/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.171.811.121.211.21
vs Stronger (5)1.002.801.003.671.001.50
vs Similar (9)1.331.002.000.000.801.80
vs Weaker (16)1.810.752.000.781.570.71
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.7%
Under 1.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.5%
Under 2.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.5%
Under 3.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.3%
1-1 ✓
12.7%
2-0
11.7%
0-0
10.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.3%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.0%
Sabah FA goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
010%5.9%2.8%0.7%0.1%
113%13%4.6%1.2%0.2%
212%9.3%3.7%1.0%0.2%
36.3%5.0%2.0%0.5%0.1%
42.6%2.0%0.8%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sabah FA goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.31
Sabah FA
1.61
Zira
1.61
Sumqayıt
1.58
Neftchi Baku
1.56
Turan
1.33
Səbail
1.17
Araz
1.00
Kapaz
0.97
Qabala
0.72
Sabah FA is 0.06 points better than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.56).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.69
Turan
1.47
Neftchi Baku
1.42
Sabah FA
1.39
Səbail
1.39
Kapaz
1.08
Sumqayıt
1.03
Zira
0.92
Araz
0.86
Qabala
0.83
Sabah FA is 0.03 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.42).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zira
0.61
Qarabag
1.03
Sumqayıt
1.06
Neftchi Baku
1.11
Sabah FA
1.11
Araz
1.39
Turan
1.47
Səbail
1.67
Qabala
1.78
Kapaz
1.86
Sabah FA and Neftchi Baku are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.11).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sabah FASabah FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W30W00D01L10W00D30W00D01LH·ŞAM29/04A·KAP05/05A·SUM17/05H·ZIR22/05A·NEF28/05A·RĪG26/07H·RĪG03/08H·QAB06/08H·FK 10/08A·FK 17/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.300.870.270.870.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.270.270.330.000.200.60
vs Weaker (19)1.210.321.220.441.200.20
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W01L10W12L10W01L02L01L10WA·TUR07/05H·ŞAM14/05A·KAP21/05H·SAB28/05A·ZEL27/07H·ZEL03/08A·KAP06/08H·BEŞ10/08H·SƏB14/08A·BEŞ17/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.630.620.500.430.79
vs Stronger (5)0.601.000.331.671.000.00
vs Similar (9)0.670.781.000.000.401.40
vs Weaker (16)0.440.440.560.330.290.57
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sabah FASabah FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W00D00D10W21W20W20W01LH·ŞAM29/04A·KAP05/05A·SUM17/05H·ZIR22/05A·NEF28/05A·RĪG26/07H·RĪG03/08H·QAB06/08H·FK 10/08A·FK 17/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.301.130.271.130.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.910.271.000.330.800.20
vs Weaker (19)1.260.321.220.221.300.40
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L30W00D10W10W00D11D10W02LA·TUR07/05H·ŞAM14/05A·KAP21/05H·SAB28/05A·ZEL27/07H·ZEL03/08A·KAP06/08H·BEŞ10/08H·SƏB14/08A·BEŞ17/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.531.190.620.790.43
vs Stronger (5)0.401.800.672.000.001.50
vs Similar (9)0.670.221.000.000.400.40
vs Weaker (16)1.380.311.440.441.290.14
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls90.1%--------
Over 2.5 cards82.4%--------
Over 21.5 fouls80.5%--------
Under 3.577.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners76.2%--------
Over 1.570.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards70.6%--------

🎽 13. Player market rates

Sabah FA · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Sabah FA's squad is €4m more valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€17m vs €13m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Sabah FA and Neftchi Baku have a similar attack value (both €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Sabah FA's midfield is €3m more valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€5m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Sabah FA and Neftchi Baku have a similar defence value (both €7m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
3
SF wins
0
Draws
1
NB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sabah FA vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from SF
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/23ANeftchi Baku Vs SF1-0
26/01/23HSF Vs Neftchi Baku2-0
23/10/22ANeftchi Baku Vs SF2-3
20/08/22HSF Vs Neftchi Baku2-1

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/23AFK Partizan Vs SF2-0
10/08/23HSF Vs FK Partizan2-0
06/08/23HSF Vs Qabala5-0
03/08/23HSF Vs Rīgas FS2-1
26/07/23ARīgas FS Vs SF0-2
28/05/23ANeftchi Baku Vs SF1-0
22/05/23HSF Vs Zira0-0
17/05/23ASumqayıt Vs SF0-4
05/05/23AKapaz Vs SF0-3
29/04/23HSF Vs Şamaxı FK1-0

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/23ABeşiktaş Vs NB2-1
14/08/23HNB Vs Səbail1-1
10/08/23HNB Vs Beşiktaş1-3
06/08/23AKapaz Vs NB1-0
03/08/23HNB Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo2-0
27/07/23AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs NB2-2
28/05/23HNB Vs Sabah FA1-0
21/05/23AKapaz Vs NB1-3
14/05/23HNB Vs Şamaxı FK1-1
07/05/23ATuran Vs NB4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL2.27
HomeWDWWW2.48
AwayWWLWL2.05
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %71%76%65%
AVG goals2.762.572.95
Over 1.5 %80%76%85%
Over 2.5 %51%52%50%
Over 3.5 %29%29%30%
Scored2.102.102.10
Conceded0.660.480.85
BTTS34%33%35%
Clean Sheet59%62%55%
Corners14.336.0018.50
Cards7.337.008.00
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.72
HomeDWWLD2.00
AwayLWDLL1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%61%39%
AVG goals2.743.092.39
Over 1.5 %80%87%74%
Over 2.5 %54%65%43%
Over 3.5 %30%35%26%
Scored1.632.001.26
Conceded1.111.091.13
BTTS46%48%43%
Clean Sheet41%48%35%
Corners10.889.7512.00
Cards5.295.505.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3683
72%
2.3
9737+60
3.7
89%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.71.0
-
2ZiraZira3658
44%
1.6
3322+11
1.5
33%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6160.90.6
-
3Sabah FASabah FA3658
47%
1.6
5040+10
2.5
72%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.1
-
4SumqayıtSumqayıt3657
42%
1.6
3738-1
2.1
56%
33%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.01.1
-
5Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3656
44%
1.6
5140+11
2.5
69%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.41.1
-
6TuranTuran3648
36%
1.3
5353+0
2.9
83%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.51.5
-
7SəbailSəbail3642
31%
1.2
5060-10
3.1
81%
64%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.7
-
8ArazAraz3636
25%
1.0
3150-19
2.2
72%
36%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.91.4
-
9KapazKapaz3635
25%
1.0
3967-28
2.9
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1231.11.9
-
10QabalaQabala3626
19%
0.7
3064-34
2.6
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1130.81.8
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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