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Sabah FA vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 08/12/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 2-0
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Vs
45%
32%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sabah FA win✓ Hit
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D20W30W22D10W31W00D30W11DH·TUR20/09H·SUM28/09A·KAR05/10H·ZIR19/10A·ARA25/10H·QAB03/11A·KAP09/11H·ŞAM23/11A·IMI29/11A·IMI03/12
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.570.971.470.931.671.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.561.121.711.141.441.11
vs Weaker (14)1.570.791.250.752.000.83
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D22D22D20W62W51W02L23L00D00DH·KAR27/09A·ZIR03/10H·ARA19/10A·QAB26/10H·MOI29/10H·KAP01/11A·QAR09/11H·IMI23/11A·TUR28/11A·ZIR02/12
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.131.801.331.000.93
vs Stronger (2)0.002.50--0.002.50
vs Similar (14)1.291.291.621.620.830.83
vs Weaker (14)1.710.792.001.001.430.57
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.8%
Under 1.5
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.5%
Under 2.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.4%
Under 3.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.7%
No
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.0%
0-0
14.8%
1-1
14.2%
2-0 ✓
9.9%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.2%
Sabah FA goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
015%9.4%4.2%1.1%0.2%
115%14%5.1%1.4%0.3%
29.9%7.8%3.1%0.8%0.2%
34.0%3.2%1.3%0.3%0.1%
41.2%1.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sabah FA goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Sabah FA is 0.58 points better than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (2.36 vs 1.79).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Sabah FA is 0.55 goals better than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (2.27 vs 1.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Sabah FA is 0.21 goals better than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sabah FASabah FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D20W20W00D10W21W00D00D00DH·TUR20/09H·SUM28/09A·KAR05/10H·ZIR19/10A·ARA25/10H·QAB03/11A·KAP09/11H·ŞAM23/11A·IMI29/11A·IMI03/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.470.870.530.670.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.810.621.290.710.440.56
vs Weaker (14)0.710.290.500.381.000.17
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L11D00D31W20W00D11D00D00DH·KAR27/09A·ZIR03/10H·ARA19/10A·QAB26/10H·MOI29/10H·KAP01/11A·QAR09/11H·IMI23/11A·TUR28/11A·ZIR02/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.531.070.530.400.53
vs Stronger (2)0.001.50--0.001.50
vs Similar (14)0.790.641.000.750.500.50
vs Weaker (14)0.790.291.140.290.430.29
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sabah FASabah FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D00D10W22D00D10W00D30W11DH·TUR20/09H·SUM28/09A·KAR05/10H·ZIR19/10A·ARA25/10H·QAB03/11A·KAP09/11H·ŞAM23/11A·IMI29/11A·IMI03/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.500.600.401.000.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.750.500.430.431.000.56
vs Weaker (14)0.860.500.750.381.000.67
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D21W11D20W31W31W02L12L00D00DH·KAR27/09A·ZIR03/10H·ARA19/10A·QAB26/10H·MOI29/10H·KAP01/11A·QAR09/11H·IMI23/11A·TUR28/11A·ZIR02/12
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.600.730.800.600.40
vs Stronger (2)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (14)0.500.640.620.880.330.33
vs Weaker (14)0.930.500.860.711.000.29
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.585.6%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Sabah FA · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Sabah FA's squad is €4m more valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€17m vs €13m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Sabah FA and Neftchi Baku have a similar attack value (both €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Sabah FA's midfield is €3m more valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€5m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Sabah FA and Neftchi Baku have a similar defence value (both €7m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
SF wins
4
Draws
0
NB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sabah FA vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from SF
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/25ANeftchi Baku Vs SF0-0
24/05/25HSF Vs Neftchi Baku1-0
23/04/25HSF Vs Neftchi Baku1-1
02/04/25ANeftchi Baku Vs SF1-2
19/01/25ANeftchi Baku Vs SF1-1
27/10/24HSF Vs Neftchi Baku0-0
18/08/24ANeftchi Baku Vs SF0-2
25/05/24ANeftchi Baku Vs SF0-1

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/12/25AImisli FK Vs SF1-1
29/11/25AImisli FK Vs SF0-3
23/11/25HSF Vs Şamaxı FK0-0
09/11/25AKapaz Vs SF1-3
03/11/25HSF Vs Qabala1-0
25/10/25AAraz Vs SF2-2
19/10/25HSF Vs Zira3-0
05/10/25AKarvan Vs SF0-2
28/09/25HSF Vs Sumqayıt1-1
20/09/25HSF Vs Turan2-0

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/12/25AZira Vs NB0-0
28/11/25ATuran Vs NB0-0
23/11/25HNB Vs Imisli FK2-3
09/11/25AQarabag Vs NB2-0
01/11/25HNB Vs Kapaz5-1
29/10/25HNB Vs MOIK6-2
26/10/25AQabala Vs NB0-2
19/10/25HNB Vs Araz2-2
03/10/25AZira Vs NB2-2
27/09/25HNB Vs Karvan0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.52
HomeWDWWD1.61
AwayWDWWD1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%39%33%
AVG goals2.442.262.59
Over 1.5 %72%65%78%
Over 2.5 %40%35%44%
Over 3.5 %28%26%30%
Scored1.421.351.48
Conceded1.020.911.11
BTTS58%52%63%
Clean Sheet30%35%26%
Corners---
Cards5.002.008.00
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDD1.38
HomeDDWWL1.48
AwayDWLDD1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%37%30%
AVG goals2.602.892.26
Over 1.5 %72%70%74%
Over 2.5 %46%52%39%
Over 3.5 %26%33%17%
Scored1.401.701.04
Conceded1.201.191.22
BTTS50%59%39%
Clean Sheet30%26%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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