PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Sabah FA vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-2
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Vs
45%
28%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Sabah FA is poised to claim a narrow home win in their Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa encounter against Neftchi Baku. Recent form suggests a storyline of Sabah FA coming off a defeat, but the away side's 5-game winning streak is a dominant narrative. The model predicts a 45% chance of a home win, 28% for a draw, and 27% for an away win.

The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total goals being 2. A 1-1 scoreline is the single most likely correct outcome, with a probability of 13.2%. Sabah FA has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.25 goals and conceding 0.75 per match against similar opponents. Neftchi Baku, meanwhile, has averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded in away matches against similar opponents.

The model's selection is the Home win, with an Over 1.5 goals outcome holding a 76.4% probability and Under 3.5 goals at 71.3%. Home win percentage stands at 45%, draw percentage at 28%, and away win percentage at 27%.

Results analysis

In a stunning upset, Neftchi Baku came from behind to defeat Sabah FA 2-1, extending their impressive 5-game winning run. The win was a major surprise given that Sabah FA had been the pre-match favourite with a 45% chance of winning. However, the model's selection, Home win, proved to be the wrong call, as Neftchi Baku's 27% chance of winning was the correct outcome. The model's other selections also failed to materialize, with Over 1.5 goals hitting and Under 3.5 goals also hitting, both at 76.4% and 71.3% respectively. The most likely score, 2-1, was one of the predicted outcomes, but the actual result was a 1-2 win for Neftchi Baku.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sabah FA win✗ Miss
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W22D42W22D10W21W20W30W01L21WH·SUM19/03A·QAR03/04A·ARA07/04H·ZIR11/04A·QAR18/04H·QAR22/04H·KAR27/04A·ŞAM03/05H·KAP08/05H·ZIR13/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.400.872.130.672.671.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)2.111.222.001.002.251.50
vs Weaker (21)2.520.712.200.502.820.91
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L31W60W31W21W11D15L21W30W30WH·TUR09/03A·QAB15/03H·IMI20/03A·SUM05/04H·ARA11/04A·ZIR17/04H·QAR26/04H·QAR30/04A·KAR05/05H·ŞAM10/05
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.072.131.201.800.93
vs Stronger (3)1.002.671.503.000.002.00
vs Similar (12)1.421.001.671.001.171.00
vs Weaker (15)2.600.802.710.862.500.75
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.8%
Under 2.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.7%
Under 3.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
9.1%
2-0
8.0%
0-0
7.9%
1-2 ✓
7.0%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.4%
Sabah FA goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
07.9%6.6%4.5%1.7%0.5%
19.1%13%7.0%2.7%0.8%
28.0%9.3%5.4%2.1%0.6%
34.1%4.8%2.8%1.1%0.3%
41.6%1.8%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sabah FA goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Sabah FA is 0.58 points better than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (2.36 vs 1.79).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Sabah FA is 0.55 goals better than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (2.27 vs 1.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Sabah FA is 0.21 goals better than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Sabah FASabah FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D22D12L10W00D00D10W00D01LH·SUM19/03A·QAR03/04A·ARA07/04H·ZIR11/04A·QAR18/04H·QAR22/04H·KAR27/04A·ŞAM03/05H·KAP08/05H·ZIR13/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.270.870.271.130.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.780.560.200.801.500.25
vs Weaker (21)1.100.141.200.001.000.27
Clean sheet %80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D30W10W10W00D13L00D10W10WH·TUR09/03A·QAB15/03H·IMI20/03A·SUM05/04H·ARA11/04A·ZIR17/04H·QAR26/04H·QAR30/04A·KAR05/05H·ŞAM10/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.331.000.400.530.27
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.501.500.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.580.250.830.330.330.17
vs Weaker (15)1.000.271.290.140.750.38
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Sabah FASabah FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W11D20W10W00D21W20W20W01L20WH·SUM19/03A·QAR03/04A·ARA07/04H·ZIR11/04A·QAR18/04H·QAR22/04H·KAR27/04A·ŞAM03/05H·KAP08/05H·ZIR13/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.601.270.401.530.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.330.671.800.200.751.25
vs Weaker (21)1.430.571.000.501.820.64
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W30W21W11D11D02L21W20W20WH·TUR09/03A·QAB15/03H·IMI20/03A·SUM05/04H·ARA11/04A·ZIR17/04H·QAR26/04H·QAR30/04A·KAR05/05H·ŞAM10/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.731.130.801.270.67
vs Stronger (3)0.671.671.001.500.002.00
vs Similar (12)0.830.750.830.670.830.83
vs Weaker (15)1.600.531.430.711.750.38
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
ZIR (23)
€12m
ARA (19)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
ARA (7)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
ARA (5)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
ZIR (10)
€6m
ARA (7)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
SF wins
4
Draws
0
NB wins

Head-to-head

Sabah FA vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from SF
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/25HSF Vs Neftchi Baku2-0
14/09/25ANeftchi Baku Vs SF0-0
24/05/25HSF Vs Neftchi Baku1-0
23/04/25HSF Vs Neftchi Baku1-1
02/04/25ANeftchi Baku Vs SF1-2
19/01/25ANeftchi Baku Vs SF1-1
27/10/24HSF Vs Neftchi Baku0-0
18/08/24ANeftchi Baku Vs SF0-2

Sabah FASabah FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/05/26HSF Vs Zira2-1
08/05/26HSF Vs Kapaz0-1
03/05/26AŞamaxı FK Vs SF0-3
27/04/26HSF Vs Karvan2-0
22/04/26HSF Vs Qarabag2-1
18/04/26AQarabag Vs SF0-1
11/04/26HSF Vs Zira2-2
07/04/26AAraz Vs SF2-4
03/04/26AQarabag Vs SF2-2
19/03/26HSF Vs Sumqayıt3-1

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26HNB Vs Şamaxı FK3-0
05/05/26AKarvan Vs NB0-3
30/04/26HNB Vs Qarabag2-1
26/04/26HNB Vs Qarabag1-5
17/04/26AZira Vs NB1-1
11/04/26HNB Vs Araz2-1
05/04/26ASumqayıt Vs NB1-3
20/03/26HNB Vs Imisli FK6-0
15/03/26AQabala Vs NB1-3
09/03/26HNB Vs Turan0-1

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Sabah FA
Sabah FA
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW2.14
HomeDWWLW2.08
AwayWDWWW2.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%62%62%
AVG goals3.002.733.29
Over 1.5 %78%73%83%
Over 2.5 %56%46%67%
Over 3.5 %40%31%50%
Scored2.081.922.25
Conceded0.920.811.04
BTTS58%54%62%
Clean Sheet34%35%33%
Corners---
Cards5.002.008.00
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWW1.58
HomeWWLWW1.50
AwayDWWDW1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%38%46%
AVG goals2.722.922.50
Over 1.5 %72%65%79%
Over 2.5 %52%54%50%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored1.621.731.50
Conceded1.101.191.00
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

← all matches