This opponent (Qarabag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.87
2.62
1.00
1.71
0.76
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.50
1.00
4.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (5)
1.20
1.40
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
2.43
0.52
3.00
0.50
2.00
0.54
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.4%
Under 1.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.7%
0-2
10.4%
0-1
10.0%
1-2
9.9%
0-0
7.0%
0-3
6.5%
1-3
6.2%
2-1
5.1%
Sabah FA goals ↓
Qarabag goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
10%
10%
6.5%
3.0%
1
4.6%
12%
9.9%
6.2%
2.9%
2
2.7%
5.1%
4.7%
2.9%
1.4%
3
0.9%
1.6%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sabah FA goals (down), columns = Qarabag goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Sabah FA is 1.14 points worse than Qarabag in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Sabah FA is 1.00 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 2.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Sabah FA is 0.75 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 0.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sabah FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.54
0.46
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (18)
0.67
0.56
0.43
0.43
0.82
0.64
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.37
1.31
0.54
0.76
0.24
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
1.50
1.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.13
0.26
1.40
0.30
0.92
0.23
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sabah FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.54
0.46
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.42
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (18)
0.72
0.72
0.71
0.43
0.73
0.91
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.50
1.31
0.46
0.94
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (23)
1.30
0.26
1.60
0.20
1.08
0.31
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sabah FA · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juninho Vieira25%
Toral Bayramov10%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Leandro Andrade10%
Yassine Benzia0%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kevin Medina50%
Júlio Romão33%
Marko Janković25%
Patrick Andrade22%
Elvin Cafarquliyev22%
Abbas Hüseynov20%
Bədavi Huseynov20%
Marko Vešović20%
Mateusz Kochalski14%
Juninho Vieira12%
Emmanuel Addai12%
Yassine Benzia11%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Toral Bayramov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nariman Akhundzade20%
Yassine Benzia11%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Juninho Vieira0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juninho Vieira75%
Yassine Benzia22%
Toral Bayramov10%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Sabah FA's squad is €7m less valuable than Qarabag's (€17m vs €25m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Sabah FA's attack is €3m less valuable than Qarabag's (€5m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Sabah FA's midfield is €2m more valuable than Qarabag's (€5m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Sabah FA's defence is €7m less valuable than Qarabag's (€7m vs €14m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Araz
Turan
Neftchi Baku
Şamaxı FK
Sumqayıt
Kapaz
Səbail