The contest between Sabah FA and Qarabag sits on a knife-edge, with the model favouring an away win. Home victory stands at 36%, a draw at 28%, and an away triumph at 37%. The expected total of goals is 2.8, with the most probable total being two goals, a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.2% probability. Sabah, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Qarabag, on the road, averages only 0.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.6%), Under 5.5 (93.7%), Over 19.5 fouls (85.8%), Under 4.5 (85.1%), and Home under 2.5 goals (83.9%). Sabah entered the match on a win, having just beaten Hapoel Beer Sheva 3-2, whereas Qarabag arrived after a 1-2 loss to Twente. The balance remains razor-thin, and the model’s pick points to a Qarabag victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sabah FA win
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qarabag win
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sabah FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
0.97
2.47
0.87
2.27
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.25
1.31
2.57
1.29
2.00
1.33
vs Weaker (14)
2.50
0.57
2.38
0.50
2.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.17
2.54
1.31
1.53
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
4.50
1.00
6.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.10
1.33
1.33
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (18)
2.56
0.83
4.00
0.50
1.83
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.1%
Under 2.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-0
8.4%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.1%
0-1
8.0%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
6.0%
Sabah FA goals ↓
Qarabag goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
8.0%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
1
8.3%
14%
8.1%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.4%
8.3%
5.4%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.9%
3.7%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sabah FA goals (down), columns = Qarabag goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Sabah FA is 0.27 points better than Qarabag in terms of average points per game (2.36 vs 2.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Sabah FA is 0.12 goals better than Qarabag in terms of goals scored per game (2.27 vs 2.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Sabah FA is 0.06 goals better than Qarabag in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sabah FA or Draw
65.3%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
35%
covers Sabah FA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA or Qarabag
71.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
35%
covers Sabah FA + Qarabag
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Qarabag
63.3%
Avg Implied -
37%
29%
35%
covers Draw + Qarabag
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5
Over
73.8%
Under
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5
Over
72.7%
Under
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sabah FA, so a minus line means Sabah FA give that many goals of a start and Qarabag receive them. At -1, Sabah FA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sabah FA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sabah FA)
Sabah FA -2
6.1%
Draw -2
11.1%
Qarabag +2
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sabah FA)
Sabah FA -1
17.2%
Draw -1
19.5%
Qarabag +1
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sabah FA)
Sabah FA +1
65.3%
Draw +1
18.8%
Qarabag -1
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sabah FA)
Sabah FA +2
84.1%
Draw +2
10.4%
Qarabag -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sabah FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
0.93
0.33
1.07
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.62
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.17
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.92
0.77
0.65
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
5.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
0.39
1.67
0.33
0.92
0.42
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sabah FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.63
1.53
0.53
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
0.69
1.71
0.57
1.00
0.78
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.57
1.38
0.50
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Qarabag
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
1.62
0.54
0.88
0.59
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.70
1.00
0.83
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.39
0.44
2.33
0.17
0.92
0.58
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sabah FA
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Qarabag · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Camilo Durán40%
Leandro Andrade36%
Marko Janković18%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Elvin Jafarguliyev17%
Musa Qurbanlı12%
Oleksiy Kashchuk11%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Matheus Silva8%
Kevin Medina8%
Emmanuel Addai8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kady Borges0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matheus Silva33%
Kevin Medina25%
Marko Janković18%
Pedro Bicalho17%
Nariman Akhundzade12%
Toral Bayramov11%
Camilo Durán10%
Abdellah Zoubir0%
Kady Borges0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Jafarguliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Dani Bolt0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nariman Akhundzade25%
Joni Montiel20%
Marko Janković18%
Leandro Andrade18%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Kady Borges12%
Camilo Durán10%
Bahlul Mustafazada9%
Matheus Silva8%
Elvin Jafarguliyev8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kevin Medina0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Camilo Durán20%
Abdellah Zoubir17%
Emmanuel Addai8%
Toral Bayramov0%
Kady Borges0%
Matheus Silva0%
Marko Janković0%
Kevin Medina0%
Joni Montiel0%
Chris Kouakou0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Jafarguliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Musa Qurbanlı0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Pedro Bicalho0%
Dani Bolt0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Sabah FA's squad is €7m less valuable than Qarabag's (€17m vs €25m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Sabah FA's attack is €3m less valuable than Qarabag's (€5m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Sabah FA's midfield is €2m more valuable than Qarabag's (€5m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Sabah FA's defence is €7m less valuable than Qarabag's (€7m vs €14m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
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Zira
Neftchi Baku
Turan
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Araz
Sumqayıt