The match between Sabah FA and Zira is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or an away triumph. The probabilities are 41% for Sabah, 30% for a draw, and 29% for Zira. The expected total is 2.4 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% chance. Sabah, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Zira, on the road, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 5.5 (96.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.6%), Under 4.5 (90.6%), and Home +2 handicap (88.3%). Sabah’s recent form shows a win after a five-match run, while Zira is on a two-game winning streak. The outcome remains uncertain, but the model picks a home victory.
Results analysis
The win extends Sabah FA’s recent form, and the model’s prediction of a home win proved correct as the final score was 2-1. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 41% probability and the selection was hit. The model’s suggested picks all settled in the match: Under 7.5 goals (99.7% probability) hit, Under 6.5 (98.9%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.6%) hit, Under 5.5 (96.5%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (95.5%) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (90.6%) hit, Under 4.5 (90.6%) hit, and Home +2 handicap (88.3%) hit. The final score of 2-1 matched the model’s most likely outcome, confirming the overall accuracy of the predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sabah FA win✓ Hit
40.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zira win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sabah FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.43
0.83
2.20
0.60
2.67
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.22
1.11
2.20
0.80
2.25
1.50
vs Weaker (21)
2.52
0.71
2.20
0.50
2.82
0.91
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.90
1.00
0.81
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.08
0.83
1.00
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (15)
1.27
0.60
1.12
0.38
1.43
0.86
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.1%
Under 1.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
10.5%
0-1
8.6%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.3%
Sabah FA goals ↓
Zira goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.6%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.0%
8.5%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.5%
3.7%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sabah FA goals (down), columns = Zira goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Araz
2.50
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Qarabag
2.00
Sabah FA
2.00
Turan
2.00
Difai Ağsu
1.50
MOIK
1.50
Səbail
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.33
Zira
1.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
0.98
Goy-Gol
0.98
Şəki PFK
0.98
Kür-Araz
0.98
Xankəndi FK
0.98
Şirvan FK
0.98
Araz Saatlı
0.98
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Safa Baku
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Sabah FA is 1.00 points better than Zira in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan
4.50
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
MOIK
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Sabah FA
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Difai Ağsu
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Ağstafa Gəncləri
1.46
Goy-Gol
1.46
Şəki PFK
1.46
Kür-Araz
1.46
Xankəndi FK
1.46
Şirvan FK
1.46
Araz Saatlı
1.46
Şəmkir
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Sumqayıt
1.00
Zira
1.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Sabah FA is 1.00 goals better than Zira in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Qarabag
0.83
Səbail
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Sabah FA
1.00
Zira
1.33
Mingəçevir
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
MOIK
2.00
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Turan
2.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
2.61
Goy-Gol
2.61
Şəki PFK
2.61
Kür-Araz
2.61
Xankəndi FK
2.61
Şirvan FK
2.61
Araz Saatlı
2.61
Şimal
3.00
Safa Baku
3.00
Karvan
3.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Sabah FA is 0.33 goals better than Zira in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sabah FA or Draw✓ Hit
71.0%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers Sabah FA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA or Zira✓ Hit
69.9%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers Sabah FA + Zira
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zira✗ Miss
59.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers Draw + Zira
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.2%
Under
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.9%
Under
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.7%
Under
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.0%
Under
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sabah FA, so a minus line means Sabah FA give that many goals of a start and Zira receive them. At -1, Sabah FA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sabah FA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sabah FA)Actual: Zira
Sabah FA -2
6.9%
Draw -2
12.4%
Zira +2
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sabah FA)Actual: Draw
Sabah FA -1
19.3%
Draw -1
21.6%
Zira +1
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sabah FA)Actual: Sabah FA
Sabah FA +1
71.0%
Draw +1
17.3%
Zira -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sabah FA)Actual: Sabah FA
Sabah FA +2
88.3%
Draw +2
8.2%
Zira -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sabah FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.23
1.00
0.20
1.13
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.44
0.60
0.60
1.50
0.25
vs Weaker (21)
1.10
0.14
1.20
0.00
1.00
0.27
Clean sheet %
83% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.47
0.44
0.38
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.23
0.69
0.17
0.50
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.20
0.62
0.12
0.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sabah FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.60
1.20
0.40
1.53
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.67
1.60
0.20
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (21)
1.43
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.82
0.64
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.56
0.44
0.79
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.38
0.67
0.50
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.40
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
ZIR (23)
€12m
ARA (19)
€6m
Sabah FA's squad is €5m more valuable than Zira's (€17m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
ARA (7)
€3m
Sabah FA and Zira have a similar attack value (both €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
ARA (5)
€2m
ZIR (3)
€1m
Sabah FA's midfield is €4m more valuable than Zira's (€5m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
ZIR (10)
€6m
ARA (7)
€2m
Sabah FA's defence is €1m more valuable than Zira's (€7m vs €6m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →