Sabah FA are tipped to win, the model picking a home victory with a 50 % chance, while draws sit at 28 % and Zira’s chances are 21 %. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 27 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3 % probability. Sabah’s home form shows they average 2.2 goals scored and concede just one against similar opposition, whereas Zira, on the road, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5 %), Under 5.5 (96.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (93.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (92.9 %), Home +2 handicap (92.3 %) and Under 4.5 (89.5 %). Sabah’s recent form is a mixed LWWLW, coming off a defeat, while Zira are on a two-game winning run after a 3-1 win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sabah FA win
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zira win
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sabah FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
0.97
2.47
0.87
2.27
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.25
1.31
2.57
1.29
2.00
1.33
vs Weaker (14)
2.50
0.57
2.38
0.50
2.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.90
1.19
0.81
1.14
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
1.00
0.83
0.67
1.12
1.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
0.64
1.50
0.62
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.8%
Under 2.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.5%
Under 3.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
11.8%
2-0
10.0%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.1%
Sabah FA goals ↓
Zira goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
6.7%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
1
12%
13%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10.0%
9.3%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.1%
4.8%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sabah FA goals (down), columns = Zira goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Sabah FA is 0.76 points better than Zira in terms of average points per game (2.36 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Sabah FA is 0.97 goals better than Zira in terms of goals scored per game (2.27 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Sabah FA is 0.33 goals better than Zira in terms of goals conceded per game (0.76 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sabah FA or Draw
78.2%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Sabah FA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA or Zira
71.8%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Sabah FA + Zira
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zira
50.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
28%
22%
covers Draw + Zira
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5
Over
78.4%
Under
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sabah FA, so a minus line means Sabah FA give that many goals of a start and Zira receive them. At -1, Sabah FA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sabah FA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sabah FA)
Sabah FA -2
10.8%
Draw -2
15.6%
Zira +2
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sabah FA)
Sabah FA -1
26.4%
Draw -1
23.6%
Zira +1
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sabah FA)
Sabah FA +1
78.2%
Draw +1
13.9%
Zira -1
7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sabah FA)
Sabah FA +2
92.1%
Draw +2
5.8%
Zira -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sabah FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
0.93
0.33
1.07
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.62
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.17
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.64
0.33
0.50
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.21
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.9%
Under 0.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.4%
Under 1.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sabah FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.63
1.53
0.53
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
0.69
1.71
0.57
1.00
0.78
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.57
1.38
0.50
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.69
0.38
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.36
0.50
0.17
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.43
0.88
0.38
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.2%
Under 0.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.0%
Under 1.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.6%
Under 2.5
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.5%
Under
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zira over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sabah FA
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Sabah FA's squad is €5m more valuable than Zira's (€17m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Sabah FA and Zira have a similar attack value (both €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Sabah FA's midfield is €4m more valuable than Zira's (€5m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Sabah FA's defence is €1m more valuable than Zira's (€7m vs €6m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
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Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Turan
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Safa Baku
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Araz
Sumqayıt