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Saburtalo vs Dila Result & Analysis

Date: 02/05/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 1-0
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Vs
37%
31%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dila
Dila
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Saburtalo and Dila face a tightly balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 37% for Saburtalo, 31% for a draw and 33% for Dila. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly high-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14.5% chance. Saburtalo, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.43 goals scored and 0.57 conceded, while Dila, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 carries a 78.8% probability. All probabilities are expressed as percentages: 37% home win, 31% draw, 33% away win, and 78.8% for the Under 3.5 pick. The recent form shows Saburtalo struggling after three straight defeats, while Dila comes off a draw, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.

Results analysis

After a string of three defeats, Saburtalo’s win extends their recent form, while Dila, having drawn their last match, fell short of the momentum they hoped for. The final score was 1-0, a home win that matched the actual result. The model’s favourite, Home win, came through with a 37% probability, and the call was correct. The single suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, had a 78.8% chance and hit, keeping the total goals at two, the most likely scoreline. The outcome confirmed the model’s predictions, with the favoured result and the selection both delivering as expected.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saburtalo win✓ Hit
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dila win✗ Miss
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W10W11D00D40W21W21W10W00D10WH·TOR05/03A·DIL10/03H·DIN15/03A·SAM28/03H·KOL05/04A·DIN09/04H·GAR14/04A·GAG19/04A·TEL24/04A·TOR28/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.870.732.070.641.690.81
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (14)2.000.572.430.571.570.57
vs Weaker (14)2.000.792.000.672.000.88
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DilaDila

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L21W61W21W11D10W20W12L10W20WH·SAB10/03A·TOR15/03H·TEL28/03H·GAR01/04H·DIN05/04A·SAM09/04H·KOL13/04A·DIN17/04A·GAR24/04H·GAG28/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.630.931.561.061.710.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.501.211.001.292.001.14
vs Weaker (16)1.750.692.000.891.430.43
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.1%
No
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
10.8%
1-0 ✓
10.2%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.2%
Saburtalo goals ↓
Dila goals →
01234
011%9.5%6.2%2.3%0.7%
110%14%7.5%2.8%0.8%
27.0%8.0%4.5%1.7%0.5%
32.8%3.2%1.8%0.7%0.2%
40.9%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Saburtalo goals (down), columns = Dila goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Saburtalo
2.22
Dila
2.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.75
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.58
Spaeri
1.50
Gagra
1.19
Dinamo Batumi
1.19
Samgurali
1.17
Telavi
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Gareji
0.97
Kolkheti Poti
0.61
Saburtalo is 0.06 points better than Dila in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 2.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.75
Dila
1.75
Saburtalo
1.67
Spaeri
1.50
Samgurali
1.50
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.42
Gagra
1.22
Gareji
1.13
Dinamo Batumi
1.11
Telavi
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.92
Saburtalo is 0.08 goals worse than Dila in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Saburtalo
0.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.94
Dila
0.97
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.14
Samgurali
1.47
Gareji
1.50
Gagra
1.53
Telavi
1.61
Dinamo Batumi
1.64
Kolkheti Poti
1.97
Saburtalo is 0.31 goals better than Dila in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

SaburtaloSaburtalo

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

DilaDila

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (24)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (24)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DilaDila

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (22)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (28)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W01L00D10W20W10W00D00D10WH·TOR05/03A·DIL10/03H·DIN15/03A·SAM28/03H·KOL05/04A·DIN09/04H·GAR14/04A·GAG19/04A·TEL24/04A·TOR28/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.231.000.210.880.25
vs Stronger (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (14)1.360.071.430.141.290.00
vs Weaker (14)0.640.430.670.330.620.50
Clean sheet %80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DilaDila

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D30W10W01L00D10W00D00D10WH·SAB10/03A·TOR15/03H·TEL28/03H·GAR01/04H·DIN05/04A·SAM09/04H·KOL13/04A·DIN17/04A·GAR24/04H·GAG28/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.370.690.440.360.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.360.640.140.860.570.43
vs Weaker (16)0.690.121.110.110.140.14
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W00D30W01L11D10W00D00DH·TOR05/03A·DIL10/03H·DIN15/03A·SAM28/03H·KOL05/04A·DIN09/04H·GAR14/04A·GAG19/04A·TEL24/04A·TOR28/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.501.070.430.810.56
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (14)0.640.501.000.430.290.57
vs Weaker (14)1.360.361.330.331.380.38
Clean sheet %63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DilaDila

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W31W11D10W10W10W12L10W10WH·SAB10/03A·TOR15/03H·TEL28/03H·GAR01/04H·DIN05/04A·SAM09/04H·KOL13/04A·DIN17/04A·GAR24/04H·GAG28/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.570.880.621.360.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.140.570.860.431.430.71
vs Weaker (16)1.060.560.890.781.290.29
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
Saburtalo's squad is €2m more valuable than Dila's (€6m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
Saburtalo and Dila have a similar attack value (both €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
Saburtalo's midfield is €1m more valuable than Dila's (€2m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
KP (1)
€0m
Saburtalo and Dila have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
SAB wins
1
Draws
4
DIL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Saburtalo vs Dila · H/A from SAB
DateH/AGameScore
10/03/25ADila Vs SAB0-1
08/11/24HSAB Vs Dila3-2
31/08/24ADila Vs SAB1-3
14/05/24HSAB Vs Dila1-4
29/03/24ADila Vs SAB3-1
28/10/23ADila Vs SAB3-0
20/08/23HSAB Vs Dila1-2
09/05/23ADila Vs SAB1-1

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/25ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs SAB0-1
24/04/25ATelavi Vs SAB0-0
19/04/25AGagra Vs SAB0-1
14/04/25HSAB Vs Gareji2-1
09/04/25ADinamo Tbilisi Vs SAB1-2
05/04/25HSAB Vs Kolkheti Poti4-0
28/03/25ASamgurali Vs SAB0-0
15/03/25HSAB Vs Dinamo Batumi1-1
10/03/25ADila Vs SAB0-1
05/03/25HSAB Vs Torpedo Kutaisi2-0

DilaDila

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/25HDIL Vs Gagra2-0
24/04/25AGareji Vs DIL0-1
17/04/25ADinamo Tbilisi Vs DIL2-1
13/04/25HDIL Vs Kolkheti Poti2-0
09/04/25ASamgurali Vs DIL0-1
05/04/25HDIL Vs Dinamo Batumi1-1
01/04/25HDIL Vs Gareji2-1
28/03/25HDIL Vs Telavi6-1
15/03/25ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs DIL1-2
10/03/25HDIL Vs Saburtalo0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW2.06
HomeWWDWW1.92
AwayDWWDW2.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%54%69%
AVG goals2.862.922.81
Over 1.5 %78%92%65%
Over 2.5 %56%54%58%
Over 3.5 %30%29%31%
Scored1.821.921.73
Conceded1.041.001.08
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet40%38%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Dila
Dila
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.94
HomeWWDWW1.92
AwayDWWLW1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%54%58%
AVG goals2.382.462.29
Over 1.5 %64%77%50%
Over 2.5 %40%42%38%
Over 3.5 %24%19%29%
Scored1.601.621.58
Conceded0.780.850.71
BTTS50%62%38%
Clean Sheet42%35%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SaburtaloSaburtalo3680
67%
2.2
6024+36
2.3
67%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.70.7
-
2DilaDila3678
69%
2.2
6335+28
2.7
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.81.0
-
3Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3663
50%
1.8
6341+22
2.9
78%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.81.1
-
4Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3657
42%
1.6
5134+17
2.4
72%
47%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3131.40.9
-
5GagraGagra3643
33%
1.2
4455-11
2.8
83%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.5
-
6Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3643
31%
1.2
4059-19
2.8
83%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.11.6
-
7SamguraliSamgurali3642
33%
1.2
5453+1
3.0
81%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.5
-
8TelaviTelavi3838
24%
1.0
3861-23
2.6
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
9GarejiGareji3837
21%
1.0
4357-14
2.6
71%
50%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
10Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti3622
14%
0.6
3371-38
2.9
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
11SpaeriSpaeri23
50%
1.5
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12MeshakhteMeshakhte22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.0
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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