The model favours an away win, with Dinamo Batumi holding a 44% chance to triumph against Saburtalo’s 27% home advantage and a 28% draw probability. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.5% probability. Saburtalo, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Dinamo Batumi on the road averages 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. The suggested picks are Under 11.5 corners at 76%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.3% (hit), and Under 3.5 goals at 73.8% (miss). The recent form narrative starts with Saburtalo’s five-match slump, losing four straight and losing 0-2 to Gagra, while Dinamo Batumi comes off a three-game winning streak, beating Spaeri 3-0. These figures set the stage for a tightly contested match that the model predicts will finish 1-1, but with a clear edge for Dinamo Batumi.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Dinamo Batumi, was expected to win with a 44% probability, but the match ended in a 3-3 draw, so the model’s call was wrong. Saburtalo, after four straight defeats, struggled to break the stalemate, while Dinamo Batumi, riding a three-game winning run, could not secure the win either. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 74.3% chance, while its Under 3.5 goal pick missed, despite a 73.8% probability. The final score of 3-3 confirmed a draw, leaving the predicted outcome unfulfilled.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Saburtalo win✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi win✗ Miss
44.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Saburtalo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.40
1.47
1.20
1.67
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (18)
1.11
1.67
0.89
1.67
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (10)
2.40
0.80
2.60
0.60
2.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.20
2.29
1.21
1.56
1.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (14)
1.79
1.21
2.50
1.67
1.25
0.88
vs Weaker (12)
2.58
1.08
2.67
1.00
2.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
9.9%
1-2
9.1%
0-0
8.7%
0-2
8.2%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
5.1%
Saburtalo goals ↓
Dinamo Batumi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
9.9%
8.2%
4.1%
1.5%
1
7.1%
14%
9.1%
4.5%
1.7%
2
4.6%
6.8%
5.1%
2.5%
0.9%
3
1.7%
2.5%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Saburtalo goals (down), columns = Dinamo Batumi goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Saburtalo is 0.64 points worse than Dinamo Batumi in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Saburtalo is 0.69 goals worse than Dinamo Batumi in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 2.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Saburtalo is 0.22 goals worse than Dinamo Batumi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Saburtalo
For 4.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dinamo Batumi
For 4.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 17.0 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Saburtalo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.5
11.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
11.0
9.0
5.5
5.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
10.5
8.0
13.0
0.3
0.3
0.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
8%
8%
8%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
50%
50%
92%
92%
92%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
8.5
6.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
27.0
-
27.0
vs Stronger (4)
7.5
8.5
6.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
27.0
-
27.0
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
25%
50%
0%
4%
4%
4%
100%
-
100%
% under line
75%
50%
100%
96%
96%
96%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Saburtalo
10.2
Dinamo Tbilisi
8.0
Dinamo Batumi
7.5
Dila
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dila
5.5
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.7
Dinamo Tbilisi
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dinamo Batumi
27.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.9%
Under 9.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Saburtalo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.00
0.60
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.78
0.67
0.89
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.30
1.60
0.20
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
1.21
0.36
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.43
1.50
0.50
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.42
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Saburtalo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.60
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.89
0.22
0.78
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Batumi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Batumi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.07
0.86
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.79
1.00
1.17
0.88
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Batumi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Saburtalo and Dinamo Batumi have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Saburtalo and Dinamo Batumi have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Saburtalo and Dinamo Batumi have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Saburtalo and Dinamo Batumi have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Tbilisi
Torpedo Kutaisi
Dila
Samgurali
Telavi
Gagra
Samtredia
Shukura
Gareji
Spaeri