The match between Saburtalo and Dinamo Tbilisi feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win but the odds are close: 37% for Saburtalo, 29% for a draw and 33% for Dinamo. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 14% probability. Saburtalo’s home form shows an average of 1.0 goal scored and 0.67 conceded against similar opposition, while Dinamo, on the road, averages 1.38 goals for and 1.12 against the same tier. The model’s selections lean heavily on low totals and corners: Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 11.5 corners (99.4%), Under 10.5 corners (98.6%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.9%), Under 9.5 corners (96.7%) and Away under 3.5 goals (96.4%). Saburtalo’s recent five matches have been a string of losses, while Dinamo come off a win, adding a subtle edge to the home side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Saburtalo win
37.2%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.27
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.30
1xBet
2.24
Draw
29.4%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.17
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.25
Unibet
3.10
Dinamo Tbilisi win
33.4%
Avg Implied 31.6% · @ 2.87
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.99
Unibet
2.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Saburtalo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.19
1.00
1.79
1.21
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.62
0.94
1.00
0.67
2.43
1.29
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
1.00
1.50
1.33
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.20
1.80
1.27
1.67
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.06
1.44
1.00
1.38
1.12
vs Weaker (13)
2.15
1.38
2.33
1.67
2.00
1.14
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.0%
@ 1.23+0.7%
Under 1.5
27.0%
@ 3.20-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.23
Under
Unibet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 1.84-2.2%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.72+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.84
Under
Unibet
1.72
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.7%
@ 3.15-3.6%
Under 3.5
75.3%
@ 1.24+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.15
Under
Unibet
1.24
Both teams to score
Yes
52.6%
@ 1.62-1.7%
No
47.4%
@ 1.92+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.62
No
Unibet
1.92
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.3%
1-0
9.2%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.0%
Saburtalo goals ↓
Dinamo Tbilisi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
8.5%
6.0%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.2%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.8%
8.3%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Saburtalo goals (down), columns = Dinamo Tbilisi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Saburtalo is 0.98 points worse than Dinamo Tbilisi in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Saburtalo is 1.24 goals worse than Dinamo Tbilisi in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Saburtalo is 0.05 goals better than Dinamo Tbilisi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Saburtalo
For 5.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 17.3 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dinamo Tbilisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Saburtalo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.0
10.0
0.5
0.6
0.4
30.0
27.0
36.0
vs Stronger (3)
7.0
4.0
10.0
2.3
1.0
3.0
22.0
8.0
36.0
vs Similar (29)
12.0
12.0
-
0.3
0.5
0.2
46.0
46.0
-
vs Weaker (18)
5.0
5.0
-
0.4
0.7
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
33%
100%
6%
8%
4%
67%
50%
100%
% under line
50%
67%
0%
94%
92%
96%
33%
50%
0%
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.3%
Under 9.5
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
79.5%
Under 3.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Saburtalo or Draw
66.6%
Avg Implied 67.4% · @ 1.32
Edge
-0.9%
37%
29%
33%
covers Saburtalo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.32
Saburtalo or Dinamo Tbilisi
70.6%
Avg Implied 71.2% · @ 1.25
Edge
-0.6%
37%
29%
33%
covers Saburtalo + Dinamo Tbilisi
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.25
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi
62.8%
Avg Implied 61.4% · @ 1.45
Edge
+1.5%
37%
29%
33%
covers Draw + Dinamo Tbilisi
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.45
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5
Over
72.7%
Under
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5
Over
37.3%
@ 2.17-4.0%
Under
62.7%
@ 1.53+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.17
Under
Unibet
1.53
Saburtalo over/under 2.5
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5
Over
70.5%
Under
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5
Over
34.5%
@ 2.45-2.0%
Under
65.5%
@ 1.41+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.45
Under
Unibet
1.41
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Saburtalo, so a minus line means Saburtalo give that many goals of a start and Dinamo Tbilisi receive them. At -1, Saburtalo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Saburtalo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo -2
6.0%
Draw -2
11.2%
Dinamo Tbilisi +2
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo -1
17.2%
@ 3.85-3.5%
Draw -1
20.0%
@ 3.30-4.2%
Dinamo Tbilisi +1
62.8%
@ 1.45+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.85
Draw
Unibet
3.30
Away
Unibet
1.45
Handicap +1 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo +1
66.6%
@ 1.32+5.9%
Draw +1
18.7%
@ 3.60-3.6%
Dinamo Tbilisi -1
14.7%
@ 4.70-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.32
Draw
Unibet
3.60
Away
Unibet
4.70
Handicap +2 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo +2
85.3%
Draw +2
9.9%
Dinamo Tbilisi -2
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Saburtalo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.62
0.19
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.38
0.56
0.00
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.36
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.41
0.56
0.67
0.75
0.12
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.85
1.33
0.67
0.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.2%
@ 1.34-1.1%
Under 0.5
33.8%
@ 2.75+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.34
Under
Unibet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.0%
Under 1.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.9%
Under 2.5
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.2%
Under
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.3%
Under
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Saburtalo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.56
0.81
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.56
0.44
0.67
1.43
0.43
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.64
0.83
1.00
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dinamo Tbilisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.93
0.60
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.65
0.89
0.33
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.54
1.00
1.00
1.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.3%
1.24
Unibet
1.24
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
Over 1.5
73.0%
1.23
Unibet
1.23
-
-
-
-
+0.7%
Home over 0.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.6%
1.25
Unibet
1.25
-
-
-
-
-0.6%
Away over 0.5 goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Saburtalo and Dinamo Tbilisi have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Saburtalo and Dinamo Tbilisi have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Saburtalo's midfield is €1m more valuable than Dinamo Tbilisi's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Saburtalo's defence is €1m less valuable than Dinamo Tbilisi's (€2m vs €3m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
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Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
Samgurali
Gagra
Dila
Torpedo Kutaisi
Meshakhte
Spaeri