Saburtalo are the clear favourites, with a 56% chance of victory, 25% for a draw and 19% for Gagra to win. The model expects 2.7 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 12.1%. Saburtalo’s home form shows they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against weaker opposition, while Gagra, playing away against a stronger side, averages 1.56 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. After a run of three straight defeats, Saburtalo’s recent five-match record is LLLDD, and Gagra is coming off a 0-3 loss, their last five being LDDDD. The model’s selections lean heavily on low-scoring outcomes: Under 11.5 corners (99.4%), Under 7.5 goals (99.3%), Under 10.5 corners (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 goals (97.8%), Under 9.5 corners (96.7%), Under 5.5 goals (94.0%) and a Home +2 handicap (93.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Saburtalo win
55.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gagra win
19.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Saburtalo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.19
1.00
1.79
1.21
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.62
0.94
1.00
0.67
2.43
1.29
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
1.00
1.50
1.33
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.57
1.53
1.13
1.33
2.00
vs Stronger (16)
1.50
1.69
1.43
1.29
1.56
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.43
1.62
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.3%
Under 2.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-0
10.5%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.6%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
Saburtalo goals ↓
Gagra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
5.1%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
1
10%
12%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.8%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
6.1%
5.8%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Saburtalo goals (down), columns = Gagra goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Saburtalo is 0.46 points worse than Gagra in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Saburtalo is 0.08 goals better than Gagra in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Saburtalo is 0.54 goals worse than Gagra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Saburtalo is 9.0 percentage points better than Gagra in terms of average possession (55% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Saburtalo
For 5.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 17.3 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gagra
For 1.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Saburtalo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.0
10.0
0.5
0.6
0.4
30.0
27.0
36.0
vs Stronger (5)
7.0
4.0
10.0
1.4
0.5
2.0
22.0
8.0
36.0
vs Similar (30)
12.0
12.0
-
0.3
0.5
0.2
46.0
46.0
-
vs Weaker (15)
5.0
5.0
-
0.5
0.8
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
33%
100%
6%
8%
4%
67%
50%
100%
% under line
50%
67%
0%
94%
92%
96%
33%
50%
0%
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.3%
Under 9.5
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
79.1%
Under 3.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Saburtalo or Draw
81.0%
Avg Implied -
55%
25%
19%
covers Saburtalo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo or Gagra
74.5%
Avg Implied -
55%
25%
19%
covers Saburtalo + Gagra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gagra
44.5%
Avg Implied -
55%
25%
19%
covers Draw + Gagra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5
Over
83.0%
Under
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 3.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5
Over
61.5%
Under
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Saburtalo, so a minus line means Saburtalo give that many goals of a start and Gagra receive them. At -1, Saburtalo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Saburtalo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo -2
14.6%
Draw -2
17.4%
Gagra +2
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo -1
32.0%
Draw -1
23.5%
Gagra +1
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo +1
81.0%
Draw +1
12.1%
Gagra -1
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo +2
93.1%
Draw +2
5.1%
Gagra -2
1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Saburtalo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.62
0.19
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.38
0.56
0.00
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.36
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.75
0.86
0.43
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Saburtalo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.56
0.81
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.56
0.44
0.67
1.43
0.43
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.64
0.83
1.00
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
0.87
0.73
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.94
0.57
0.86
0.89
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.86
1.12
0.62
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 11.5 corners
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Saburtalo's squad is €4m more valuable than Gagra's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Saburtalo's attack is €2m more valuable than Gagra's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Saburtalo's midfield is €1m more valuable than Gagra's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Saburtalo's defence is €1m more valuable than Gagra's (€2m vs €1m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
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Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Samgurali
Dila
Torpedo Kutaisi
Meshakhte
Spaeri